{"id":2129,"date":"2016-09-26T18:43:41","date_gmt":"2016-09-26T18:43:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=2129"},"modified":"2016-09-26T18:43:41","modified_gmt":"2016-09-26T18:43:41","slug":"jugoslavske-scenare-pro-ukrajinu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/jugoslavske-scenare-pro-ukrajinu\/","title":{"rendered":"Jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro Ukrajinu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdzvou pro dne\u0161n\u00ed Ukrajinu je volba ze dvou sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kter\u00e9 zemi \u010dekaj\u00ed: zda to bude ten bosensk\u00fd, nebo ten chorvatsk\u00fd.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010casto si mysl\u00edme, \u017ee hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka je know-how rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu. Nen\u00ed to v\u0161ak pravda. V\u0161e, co pozorujeme dnes na Donbasu, bylo vynalezeno p\u0159ed 25\u00a0lety, kdy prob\u00edhal rozpad Jugosl\u00e1vie.<\/p>\n

Slobodan Milo\u0161evi\u0107 <\/strong>byl p\u0159edch\u016fdcem Vladimira Putina<\/strong>. Ani srbsk\u00fd prezident nevn\u00edmal Srby, kte\u0159\u00ed z\u016fstali \u017e\u00edt mimo \u00fazem\u00ed st\u00e1tu, jinak ne\u017e jako iredentu. Tak\u00e9 se je sna\u017eil vyu\u017e\u00edt jako prost\u0159edek k\u00a0udr\u017een\u00ed vlivu na b\u00fdval\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Jugosl\u00e1vie, kter\u00e9 se v\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b ji\u017e staly samostatn\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0Bosn\u011b a Hercegovin\u011b \u017eili muslim\u0161t\u00ed Bos\u0148\u00e1ci, katoli\u010dt\u00ed Chorvat\u00e9 a pravoslavn\u00ed Srbov\u00e9. \u0160lo sice o\u00a0slo\u017eit\u00fd etnokonfesn\u00ed koktejl, nebyl to v\u0161ak benz\u00edn, kter\u00fd by dok\u00e1zala vzn\u00edtit jedin\u00e1 jiskra. Byl to sp\u00ed\u0161e trotyl, kter\u00fd pot\u0159eboval rozbu\u0161ku. A tato rozbu\u0161ka byla nalezena.<\/p>\n

Bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 v\u00a0roce 1992 za podpory B\u011blehradu vyhl\u00e1sili vznik Republiky srbsk\u00e9. Politick\u00fdm v\u016fdcem bosensk\u00e9 \u201eDLR\u201c se stal psychiatr Radovan Karad\u017ei\u0107<\/strong>, v\u016fdcem vojensk\u00fdm gener\u00e1l jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy Ratko Mladi\u0107<\/strong>. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed B\u011blehrad zaujal zhruba stejn\u00e9 stanovisko jako dnes Moskva: ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 diplomatick\u00e1 podpora a neve\u0159ejn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1. P\u0159es srbsk\u00e9 hranice proudila do \u201eneuznan\u00e9 republiky\u201c technika, munice a dobrovoln\u00edci.<\/p>\n

Jatka trvala bezm\u00e1la \u010dty\u0159i roky a vy\u017e\u00e1dala si p\u0159es sto tis\u00edc \u017eivot\u016f. Pro samotn\u00fd B\u011blehrad byli p\u0159itom bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 pouh\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem, zhruba stejn\u00fdm jako Donbas pro Kreml. Ve chv\u00edli, kdy se Milo\u0161evi\u0107 rozhodl, \u017ee Mladi\u0107e a Karad\u017ei\u0107e \u201eusm\u00ed\u0159\u00ed\u201c se Sarajevem, p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b zjistil, tento je n\u00e1strojov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup oboustrann\u00fd. A \u017ee bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 jsou ochotni plnit jen ty pokyny B\u011blehradu, kter\u00e9 se jim zamlouvaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1993 a\u017e 1995 toti\u017e Karad\u017ei\u0107 s\u00a0Mladi\u0107em sta\u010dili zma\u0159it celkem t\u0159i z\u00e1padn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny na m\u00edrov\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Milo\u0161evi\u0107ovi docela vyhovovaly. Kdy\u017e Karad\u017ei\u0107 odm\u00edtl prvn\u00ed pl\u00e1n, srbsk\u00fd prezident ho pozval s\u00a0sebou do At\u00e9n, kde spole\u010dn\u011b se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi diplomaty podpis dokument\u016f prosadil. V\u016fdce bosensk\u00fdch Srb\u016f v\u0161ak prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee tento pl\u00e1n mus\u00ed ratifikovat parlament neuznan\u00e9 republiky, a Milo\u0161evi\u010d pak musel let\u011bt a p\u0159edn\u00e9st projev p\u0159ed poslanci.<\/p>\n

Projev v\u0161ak nepomohl: hned po Milo\u0161evi\u0107ov\u011b projevu se ujal slova Mladi\u010d, kter\u00fd zd\u016fraz\u0148oval, \u017ee by m\u00edr vedl ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b ji\u017e dobyt\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Poslanci hlasovali proti. Srbsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed m\u00e9dia pak najednou zjistila, \u017ee p\u0159ed\u00e1ci bosensk\u00fdch Srb\u016f nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed Robini Hoodov\u00e9, ale pouh\u00fd hlou\u010dek nezodpov\u011bdn\u00fdch dobrodruh\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed kv\u016fli sob\u011b sam\u00fdm dr\u017e\u00ed za rukojm\u00ed jak bosensk\u00e9 Srby, tak samotn\u00e9 Srbsko, kter\u00e9 se tr\u00e1p\u00ed pod t\u00edhou sankc\u00ed. Kdy\u017e pak bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 odm\u00edtli m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n napot\u0159et\u00ed, Milo\u0161evi\u010d se na\u0161tval a uzav\u0159el bosensk\u00e9 hranice i s\u00a0ve\u0161ker\u00fdmi dod\u00e1vkami zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto je bosensk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh bez ohledu na v\u0161e ostatn\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em, kter\u00fd si p\u0159eje Kreml pro Ukrajinu. Proto\u017ee p\u0159i vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed Daytonsk\u00fdch dohod, kter\u00e9 znamenaly konec v\u00e1lky, Z\u00e1pad prosadil zachov\u00e1n\u00ed \u201eRepubliky srbsk\u00e9\u201c jako samostatn\u00e9ho celku v\u00a0r\u00e1mci Bosny. Jej\u00ed z\u00e1stupci dostali t\u0159etinu v\u00a0parlamentu zem\u011b a samotn\u00e1 enkl\u00e1va z\u00edskala pr\u00e1vo vetovat spole\u010dn\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed. Pravomoci celost\u00e1tn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy byly zredukov\u00e1ny ve prosp\u011bch region\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledkem je, \u017ee Bosna a Hercegovina dnes p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh s\u00a0labut\u00ed, \u0161tikou a rakem: nen\u00ed schopna ani kompromisu, ani efektivn\u00edho rozvoje. Syst\u00e9m st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy vy\u0161el ne\u0161ikovn\u00fd a ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd. Ani skute\u010dnost, \u017ee samotn\u00fd Milo\u0161evi\u0107 ji\u017e dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta nen\u00ed mezi n\u00e1mi, tento status quo nevynulovala. Brzda pro bosenskou st\u00e1tnost, kterou stvo\u0159il, st\u00e1le \u017eije i p\u0159es politick\u00fd krach samotn\u00e9ho autora t\u00e9to my\u0161lenky.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed pak nic divn\u00e9ho na tom, \u017ee Moskva tou\u017e\u00ed, aby Donbas sehr\u00e1l pro Ukrajinu stejnou roli, jakou sehr\u00e1la \u201eRepublika srbsk\u00e1\u201c pro Bosnu. Pro Ukrajinu je v\u0161ak na \u010dase up\u0159\u00edt zrak k\u00a0p\u0159\u00edkladu dal\u0161\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9 jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, a sice Chorvatska.<\/p>\n

Po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 celou prvn\u00ed polovinu devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s\u00a0v\u00e1lkou v\u00a0Bosn\u011b toti\u017e prob\u00edhala dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lka v\u00a0Chorvatsku. I zde kr\u00e1tce po rozpadu Jugosl\u00e1vie za\u010dal konflikt. Chorvat\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 v\u00a0roce 1991 vytvo\u0159ili na \u00fazem\u00ed t\u00e9to zem\u011b \u201eSrbskou Krajinu\u201c\u00a0\u2013 dal\u0161\u00ed odno\u017e \u201eDLR\u201c. I tato enkl\u00e1va se stejn\u011b tak t\u011b\u0161ila podpo\u0159e ze strany B\u011blehradu, chorvatsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v\u0161ak na rozd\u00edl od t\u00e9 bosensk\u00e9 a\u017e do posledn\u00ed chv\u00edle necht\u011bla p\u0159istoupit na skute\u010dn\u00e9 kroky, kter\u00e9 by vedly k\u00a0reintegraci vzbou\u0159en\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed podle ciz\u00edch pravidel.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e k\u00a0podobn\u00fdm pokus\u016fm doch\u00e1zelo. T\u0159eba v\u00a0lednu 1995 americk\u00fd velvyslanec <\/strong>Peter Galbraith navrhl stran\u00e1m konfliktu pl\u00e1n Z\u00e1h\u0159eb\u00a04. Podle tohoto pl\u00e1nu m\u011bla n\u011bkter\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed dostat autonomii a dal\u0161\u00ed se reintegrovat do zem\u011b. Chorvatsk\u00fd prezident Franjo Tu\u0111man<\/strong> v\u0161ak vyhodnotil tuto variantu jako nep\u0159ijatelnou, a\u010dkoli nahlas sl\u00edbil, \u017ee ji nech\u00e1 posoudit, i kdy\u017e teprve ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m v\u00fdhledu.<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed sice prob\u00edhala, jejich \u00fa\u010delem v\u0161ak bylo sp\u00ed\u0161 odvr\u00e1tit pozornost. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed Z\u00e1h\u0159eb \u010dekal jen na chv\u00edli, a\u017e se Srbsko za\u010dne pot\u00e1p\u011bt ve vlastn\u00edch rozporech a prost\u011b se p\u0159estane zaj\u00edmat o\u00a0podporu separatist\u016f mimo vlastn\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed. Po \u010dty\u0159ech letech od za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu se Chorvat\u00e9 p\u0159ece jen do\u010dkali.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9m roce 1995 provedla chorvatsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dv\u011b vojensk\u00e9 operace, Blesk a Bou\u0159e. Prvn\u00ed z\u00a0nich obnovila kontrolu nad srbskou enkl\u00e1vou Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Slavonie, ta druh\u00e1 nad zbyl\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm Srbsk\u00e9 Krajiny. Postoje v\u016f\u010di t\u011bmto operac\u00edm jsou dodnes kontroverzn\u00ed: vedle obnovy \u00fazemn\u00ed integrity zp\u016fsobila uprchl\u00edky a ob\u011bti mezi civilisty.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je Ukrajina dnes na rozcest\u00ed. Jedna cesta vede k\u00a0zopakov\u00e1n\u00ed bosensk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti, druh\u00e1 k\u00a0t\u00e9 chorvatsk\u00e9. Je t\u0159eba si jasn\u011b uv\u011bdomovat motivy Moskvy: v\u00a0Kremlu se s\u00e1z\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b na to, \u017ee by se Ukrajina vr\u00e1tila do form\u00e1tu \u201en\u00e1razn\u00edku\u201c mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem. \u017de by i nad\u00e1le trvala situace, kdy Z\u00e1pad nebude kon\u010dit na ukrajinsko-rusk\u00fdch hranic\u00edch, ale na polsko-ukrajinsk\u00fdch. Moskva nepot\u0159ebuje Don\u011bck ani Luhansk, ty chce pou\u017e\u00edt jen v\u00a0roli on\u00e9 \u201eRepubliky srbsk\u00e9\u201c, kterou Milo\u0161evi\u0107 sv\u00e9ho \u010dasu dok\u00e1zal vnutit Bosn\u011b. Aby tyto enkl\u00e1vy pod kontrolou ozbrojenc\u016f byly zlegalizov\u00e1ny na Ukrajin\u011b, z\u00edskaly pr\u00e1vo veta proti rozhodnut\u00edm Kyjeva a p\u016fsobily jako obojek na ukrajinsk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 samostatnosti.<\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tak je hlavn\u00edm \u00fakolem Ukrajiny sna\u017eit se o\u00a0chorvatsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Protahovat jedn\u00e1n\u00ed tak dlouho, a\u017e Moskv\u011b dojdou ve\u0161ker\u00e9 zdroje nutn\u00e9 k\u00a0prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00ed vize m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu. Nep\u0159istoupit na \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by mohla omezit ukrajinskou samostatnost. Zvyknout si \u017e\u00edt v\u00a0podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a ob\u010dasn\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch eskalac\u00ed. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci mo\u017enost\u00ed p\u0159isp\u00edvat k\u00a0tomu, aby sank\u010dn\u00ed tlak na Moskvu nepolevoval.<\/p>\n

Nikdo neslibuje, \u017ee se to stane z\u00edtra. Nikdo neslibuje, \u017ee v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed bude snadn\u00e9. Ale jak n\u00e1s ksakru v\u016fbec napadlo, \u017ee to ve v\u00e1lce m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jinak?<\/p>\n

\n

Autor: Pavlo Kazarin
\n<\/em>Zdroj: Krym.Realii<\/a>, 19.\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2016<\/p>\n

P\u0159eklad: Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdzvou pro dne\u0161n\u00ed Ukrajinu je volba ze dvou sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kter\u00e9 zemi \u010dekaj\u00ed: zda to bude ten…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":78,"featured_media":2130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[523,518,516],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics","category-donbass","category-all-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro Ukrajinu - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/jugoslavske-scenare-pro-ukrajinu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro Ukrajinu - 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Nen\u00ed to v\u0161ak pravda. V\u0161e, co pozorujeme dnes na Donbasu, bylo vynalezeno p\u0159ed 25\u00a0lety, kdy prob\u00edhal rozpad Jugosl\u00e1vie.<!--more-->\r\n\r\n<strong>Slobodan Milo\u0161evi\u0107 <\/strong>byl p\u0159edch\u016fdcem <strong>Vladimira Putina<\/strong>. Ani srbsk\u00fd prezident nevn\u00edmal Srby, kte\u0159\u00ed z\u016fstali \u017e\u00edt mimo \u00fazem\u00ed st\u00e1tu, jinak ne\u017e jako iredentu. Tak\u00e9 se je sna\u017eil vyu\u017e\u00edt jako prost\u0159edek k\u00a0udr\u017een\u00ed vlivu na b\u00fdval\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Jugosl\u00e1vie, kter\u00e9 se v\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b ji\u017e staly samostatn\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.\r\n\r\nV\u00a0Bosn\u011b a Hercegovin\u011b \u017eili muslim\u0161t\u00ed Bos\u0148\u00e1ci, katoli\u010dt\u00ed Chorvat\u00e9 a pravoslavn\u00ed Srbov\u00e9. \u0160lo sice o\u00a0slo\u017eit\u00fd etnokonfesn\u00ed koktejl, nebyl to v\u0161ak benz\u00edn, kter\u00fd by dok\u00e1zala vzn\u00edtit jedin\u00e1 jiskra. Byl to sp\u00ed\u0161e trotyl, kter\u00fd pot\u0159eboval rozbu\u0161ku. A tato rozbu\u0161ka byla nalezena.\r\n\r\nBosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 v\u00a0roce 1992 za podpory B\u011blehradu vyhl\u00e1sili vznik Republiky srbsk\u00e9. Politick\u00fdm v\u016fdcem bosensk\u00e9 \u201eDLR\u201c se stal psychiatr <strong>Radovan Karad\u017ei\u0107<\/strong>, v\u016fdcem vojensk\u00fdm gener\u00e1l jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy <strong>Ratko Mladi\u0107<\/strong>. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed B\u011blehrad zaujal zhruba stejn\u00e9 stanovisko jako dnes Moskva: ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 diplomatick\u00e1 podpora a neve\u0159ejn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1. P\u0159es srbsk\u00e9 hranice proudila do \u201eneuznan\u00e9 republiky\u201c technika, munice a dobrovoln\u00edci.\r\n\r\nJatka trvala bezm\u00e1la \u010dty\u0159i roky a vy\u017e\u00e1dala si p\u0159es sto tis\u00edc \u017eivot\u016f. Pro samotn\u00fd B\u011blehrad byli p\u0159itom bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 pouh\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem, zhruba stejn\u00fdm jako Donbas pro Kreml. Ve chv\u00edli, kdy se Milo\u0161evi\u0107 rozhodl, \u017ee Mladi\u0107e a Karad\u017ei\u0107e \u201eusm\u00ed\u0159\u00ed\u201c se Sarajevem, p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b zjistil, tento je n\u00e1strojov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup oboustrann\u00fd. A \u017ee bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 jsou ochotni plnit jen ty pokyny B\u011blehradu, kter\u00e9 se jim zamlouvaj\u00ed.\r\n\r\nV\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1993 a\u017e 1995 toti\u017e Karad\u017ei\u0107 s\u00a0Mladi\u0107em sta\u010dili zma\u0159it celkem t\u0159i z\u00e1padn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny na m\u00edrov\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Milo\u0161evi\u0107ovi docela vyhovovaly. Kdy\u017e Karad\u017ei\u0107 odm\u00edtl prvn\u00ed pl\u00e1n, srbsk\u00fd prezident ho pozval s\u00a0sebou do At\u00e9n, kde spole\u010dn\u011b se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi diplomaty podpis dokument\u016f prosadil. V\u016fdce bosensk\u00fdch Srb\u016f v\u0161ak prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee tento pl\u00e1n mus\u00ed ratifikovat parlament neuznan\u00e9 republiky, a Milo\u0161evi\u010d pak musel let\u011bt a p\u0159edn\u00e9st projev p\u0159ed poslanci.\r\n\r\nProjev v\u0161ak nepomohl: hned po Milo\u0161evi\u0107ov\u011b projevu se ujal slova Mladi\u010d, kter\u00fd zd\u016fraz\u0148oval, \u017ee by m\u00edr vedl ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b ji\u017e dobyt\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Poslanci hlasovali proti. Srbsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed m\u00e9dia pak najednou zjistila, \u017ee p\u0159ed\u00e1ci bosensk\u00fdch Srb\u016f nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed Robini Hoodov\u00e9, ale pouh\u00fd hlou\u010dek nezodpov\u011bdn\u00fdch dobrodruh\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed kv\u016fli sob\u011b sam\u00fdm dr\u017e\u00ed za rukojm\u00ed jak bosensk\u00e9 Srby, tak samotn\u00e9 Srbsko, kter\u00e9 se tr\u00e1p\u00ed pod t\u00edhou sankc\u00ed. Kdy\u017e pak bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 odm\u00edtli m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n napot\u0159et\u00ed, Milo\u0161evi\u010d se na\u0161tval a uzav\u0159el bosensk\u00e9 hranice i s\u00a0ve\u0161ker\u00fdmi dod\u00e1vkami zbran\u00ed.\r\n\r\nP\u0159esto je bosensk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh bez ohledu na v\u0161e ostatn\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em, kter\u00fd si p\u0159eje Kreml pro Ukrajinu. Proto\u017ee p\u0159i vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed Daytonsk\u00fdch dohod, kter\u00e9 znamenaly konec v\u00e1lky, Z\u00e1pad prosadil zachov\u00e1n\u00ed \u201eRepubliky srbsk\u00e9\u201c jako samostatn\u00e9ho celku v\u00a0r\u00e1mci Bosny. Jej\u00ed z\u00e1stupci dostali t\u0159etinu v\u00a0parlamentu zem\u011b a samotn\u00e1 enkl\u00e1va z\u00edskala pr\u00e1vo vetovat spole\u010dn\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed. Pravomoci celost\u00e1tn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy byly zredukov\u00e1ny ve prosp\u011bch region\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f.\r\n\r\nV\u00fdsledkem je, \u017ee Bosna a Hercegovina dnes p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh s\u00a0labut\u00ed, \u0161tikou a rakem: nen\u00ed schopna ani kompromisu, ani efektivn\u00edho rozvoje. Syst\u00e9m st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy vy\u0161el ne\u0161ikovn\u00fd a ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd. Ani skute\u010dnost, \u017ee samotn\u00fd Milo\u0161evi\u0107 ji\u017e dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta nen\u00ed mezi n\u00e1mi, tento status quo nevynulovala. Brzda pro bosenskou st\u00e1tnost, kterou stvo\u0159il, st\u00e1le \u017eije i p\u0159es politick\u00fd krach samotn\u00e9ho autora t\u00e9to my\u0161lenky.\r\n\r\nNen\u00ed pak nic divn\u00e9ho na tom, \u017ee Moskva tou\u017e\u00ed, aby Donbas sehr\u00e1l pro Ukrajinu stejnou roli, jakou sehr\u00e1la \u201eRepublika srbsk\u00e1\u201c pro Bosnu. Pro Ukrajinu je v\u0161ak na \u010dase up\u0159\u00edt zrak k\u00a0p\u0159\u00edkladu dal\u0161\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9 jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, a sice Chorvatska.\r\n\r\nPo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 celou prvn\u00ed polovinu devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s\u00a0v\u00e1lkou v\u00a0Bosn\u011b toti\u017e prob\u00edhala dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lka v\u00a0Chorvatsku. I zde kr\u00e1tce po rozpadu Jugosl\u00e1vie za\u010dal konflikt. Chorvat\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 v\u00a0roce 1991 vytvo\u0159ili na \u00fazem\u00ed t\u00e9to zem\u011b \u201eSrbskou Krajinu\u201c\u00a0\u2013 dal\u0161\u00ed odno\u017e \u201eDLR\u201c. I tato enkl\u00e1va se stejn\u011b tak t\u011b\u0161ila podpo\u0159e ze strany B\u011blehradu, chorvatsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v\u0161ak na rozd\u00edl od t\u00e9 bosensk\u00e9 a\u017e do posledn\u00ed chv\u00edle necht\u011bla p\u0159istoupit na skute\u010dn\u00e9 kroky, kter\u00e9 by vedly k\u00a0reintegraci vzbou\u0159en\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed podle ciz\u00edch pravidel.\r\n\r\nI kdy\u017e k\u00a0podobn\u00fdm <strong>pokus\u016fm doch\u00e1zelo. T\u0159eba v\u00a0lednu 1995 americk\u00fd velvyslanec <\/strong>Peter Galbraith navrhl stran\u00e1m konfliktu pl\u00e1n Z\u00e1h\u0159eb\u00a04. Podle tohoto pl\u00e1nu m\u011bla n\u011bkter\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed dostat autonomii a dal\u0161\u00ed se reintegrovat do zem\u011b. Chorvatsk\u00fd prezident <strong>Franjo Tu\u0111man<\/strong> v\u0161ak vyhodnotil tuto variantu jako nep\u0159ijatelnou, a\u010dkoli nahlas sl\u00edbil, \u017ee ji nech\u00e1 posoudit, i kdy\u017e teprve ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m v\u00fdhledu.\r\n\r\nJedn\u00e1n\u00ed sice prob\u00edhala, jejich \u00fa\u010delem v\u0161ak bylo sp\u00ed\u0161 odvr\u00e1tit pozornost. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed Z\u00e1h\u0159eb \u010dekal jen na chv\u00edli, a\u017e se Srbsko za\u010dne pot\u00e1p\u011bt ve vlastn\u00edch rozporech a prost\u011b se p\u0159estane zaj\u00edmat o\u00a0podporu separatist\u016f mimo vlastn\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed. Po \u010dty\u0159ech letech od za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu se Chorvat\u00e9 p\u0159ece jen do\u010dkali.\r\n\r\nV\u00a0ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9m roce 1995 provedla chorvatsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dv\u011b vojensk\u00e9 operace, Blesk a Bou\u0159e. Prvn\u00ed z\u00a0nich obnovila kontrolu nad srbskou enkl\u00e1vou Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Slavonie, ta druh\u00e1 nad zbyl\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm Srbsk\u00e9 Krajiny. Postoje v\u016f\u010di t\u011bmto operac\u00edm jsou dodnes kontroverzn\u00ed: vedle obnovy \u00fazemn\u00ed integrity zp\u016fsobila uprchl\u00edky a ob\u011bti mezi civilisty.\r\n\r\nNicm\u00e9n\u011b je Ukrajina dnes na rozcest\u00ed. Jedna cesta vede k\u00a0zopakov\u00e1n\u00ed bosensk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti, druh\u00e1 k\u00a0t\u00e9 chorvatsk\u00e9. Je t\u0159eba si jasn\u011b uv\u011bdomovat motivy Moskvy: v\u00a0Kremlu se s\u00e1z\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b na to, \u017ee by se Ukrajina vr\u00e1tila do form\u00e1tu \u201en\u00e1razn\u00edku\u201c mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem. \u017de by i nad\u00e1le trvala situace, kdy Z\u00e1pad nebude kon\u010dit na ukrajinsko-rusk\u00fdch hranic\u00edch, ale na polsko-ukrajinsk\u00fdch. Moskva nepot\u0159ebuje Don\u011bck ani Luhansk, ty chce pou\u017e\u00edt jen v\u00a0roli on\u00e9 \u201eRepubliky srbsk\u00e9\u201c, kterou Milo\u0161evi\u0107 sv\u00e9ho \u010dasu dok\u00e1zal vnutit Bosn\u011b. Aby tyto enkl\u00e1vy pod kontrolou ozbrojenc\u016f byly zlegalizov\u00e1ny na Ukrajin\u011b, z\u00edskaly pr\u00e1vo veta proti rozhodnut\u00edm Kyjeva a p\u016fsobily jako obojek na ukrajinsk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 samostatnosti.\r\n\r\nStejn\u011b tak je hlavn\u00edm \u00fakolem Ukrajiny sna\u017eit se o\u00a0chorvatsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Protahovat jedn\u00e1n\u00ed tak dlouho, a\u017e Moskv\u011b dojdou ve\u0161ker\u00e9 zdroje nutn\u00e9 k\u00a0prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00ed vize m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu. Nep\u0159istoupit na \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by mohla omezit ukrajinskou samostatnost. Zvyknout si \u017e\u00edt v\u00a0podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a ob\u010dasn\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch eskalac\u00ed. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci mo\u017enost\u00ed p\u0159isp\u00edvat k\u00a0tomu, aby sank\u010dn\u00ed tlak na Moskvu nepolevoval.\r\n\r\nNikdo neslibuje, \u017ee se to stane z\u00edtra. Nikdo neslibuje, \u017ee v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed bude snadn\u00e9. Ale jak n\u00e1s ksakru v\u016fbec napadlo, \u017ee to ve v\u00e1lce m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jinak?\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\n<em>Autor: Pavlo Kazarin\r\n<\/em>Zdroj: <a href=\"http:\/\/ru.krymr.com\/a\/27996317.html\" target=\"_blank\">Krym.Realii<\/a>, 19.\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2016\r\n\r\nP\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a>","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/78"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2129"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2131,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2129\/revisions\/2131"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2130"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}