{"id":3519,"date":"2017-09-18T21:41:34","date_gmt":"2017-09-18T21:41:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=3519"},"modified":"2017-09-19T21:49:31","modified_gmt":"2017-09-19T21:49:31","slug":"cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/","title":{"rendered":"Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad 2017: o \u010dem k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad, pro\u010d nesly\u0161\u00ed Minsk a o \u010dem ml\u010d\u00ed Kreml"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Medi\u00e1ln\u00ed pozdvi\u017een\u00ed kolem spole\u010dn\u00e9ho rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 vzbudilo v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f \u00fadiv a nepochopen\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak pozorn\u011bji pod\u00edv\u00e1me na vojenskopolitickou situaci v\u00a0regionu, na skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah cvi\u010den\u00ed a na dynamiku v\u00fdvoje ukrajinsko-rusk\u00e9ho konfliktu, pak n\u00e1m reakce na prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0kontextu vygenerovan\u00fdch hrozeb a\u017e tak nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 nep\u0159ijde.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>Vojenskopolitick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>S\u00a0ohledem na <\/strong>obvin\u011bn\u00ed RF z\u00a0agrese proti Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 zazn\u011bla z\u00a0Macronov\u00fdch \u00fast, nulov\u00fd p\u0159\u00ednos setk\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Putinem a Trumpem p\u0159i summitu G20, tvrdou rezoluci letn\u00edho zased\u00e1n\u00ed Parlamentn\u00edho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OBSE a dal\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 se v\u00a0regionu odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>horkou f\u00e1zi ukrajinsko-rusk\u00e9ho konfliktu na Donbasu, jak m\u00edn\u00ed americk\u00fd zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed z\u00e1stupce John Waker;<\/li>\n<li>zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed proti Rusku;<\/li>\n<li>tvrdou zm\u011bnu form\u00e1tu vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho procesu, kdy byla RF de facto prohl\u00e1\u0161ena za agresorskou zemi;<\/li>\n<li>p\u0159\u00edpravu a kon\u00e1n\u00ed provokativn\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho velitelsk\u00e9ho a \u0161t\u00e1bn\u00edho cvi\u010den\u00ed RF Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 u\u00a0hranic s\u00a0pobaltsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi a Ukrajinou;<\/li>\n<li>zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed se militarizaci regionu;<\/li>\n<li>nesrozumitelnou a dvojakou politiku RF v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b, kdy ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 ji\u017e trp\u00ed, zat\u00edmco diplomat\u00e9 se st\u00e1le domlouvaj\u00ed na minimalizaci v\u00fddaj\u016f;<\/li>\n<li>pokrizovou etapu ve vztaz\u00edch mezi BR a Ruskem v\u00a0d\u016fsledku bezm\u00e1la rok trvaj\u00edc\u00edho sporu kolem cen uhlovod\u00edk\u016f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>p\u016fsob\u00ed <strong>samotn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed Minsku uspo\u0159\u00e1dat cvi\u010den\u00ed <\/strong>na v\u0161echny sousedy jako d\u011btsk\u00e1 hra se sirkami na benzinov\u00e9 pump\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Minsk v\u0161ak nevid\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou logiku na varov\u00e1n\u00edch, kter\u00e1 se val\u00ed snad odev\u0161ud, a podobn\u011b jako jeho kremel\u0161t\u00ed partne\u0159i d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed vlastn\u00edch p\u0159edstav o\u00a0okoln\u00ed realit\u011b, kdy ve\u0161ker\u00e1 problematika vojenskopolitick\u00e9 situace a hrozeb v\u00a0regionu zapad\u00e1 do jedin\u00e9 my\u0161lenky: <strong>NATO navy\u0161uje frekvenci cvi\u010den\u00ed a zapojen\u00fdch vojsk u\u00a0hranic Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, proto mus\u00edme v\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0RF jsme \u201ejednotn\u00ed a neporaziteln\u00ed\u201c<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i prezentaci n\u00e1m\u011btu cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 Aleh B\u011blakon\u011bu uvedl, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpravy spole\u010dn\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fdch a rusk\u00fdch Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil prob\u00edhaj\u00ed na pozad\u00ed komplikovan\u00e9 vojenskopolitick\u00e9 situace v\u00a0regionu. <strong>U\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edch hranic Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu byla z\u0159\u00edzena p\u0159edsunut\u00e1 velic\u00ed st\u0159ediska NATO. Aliance ve velk\u00e9m po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v\u00a0podstat\u011b tak\u0159ka navazuj\u00ed jedno na druh\u00e9 <\/strong>a kdy se nacvi\u010duje pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vojsk v\u00a0t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti st\u00e1tn\u00edch hranic B\u011bloruska. Aleh B\u011blakon\u011bu <a href=\"http:\/\/www.belta.by\/society\/view\/azhiotazh-v-svjazi-s-ucheniem-zapad-2017-neponjaten-belokonev-263865-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">konstatoval<\/a>, \u017ee <strong>\u010detnost cvi\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0regionu se za posledn\u00edch 8\u00a0let zdvojn\u00e1sobila a po\u010dty jednotek pod\u00edlej\u00edc\u00edch se na cvi\u010den\u00edch se v\u00edce ne\u017e ztrojn\u00e1sobily<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0koment\u00e1\u0159i k\u00a0\u00fa\u010del\u016fm cvi\u010den\u00ed pro ruskou zpravodajskou agenturu TASS ministr obrany BR Andrej Raukou <a href=\"https:\/\/news.tut.by\/economics\/551726.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>: \u201eNem\u00e1me co tajit. T\u00e9matika na\u0161eho cvi\u010den\u00ed je obrann\u00e1. To\u0165 na jednu stranu. <strong>Na stranu druhou <\/strong>na\u0161e vojska maj\u00ed tak vysokou \u00farove\u0148 v\u00fdcviku, \u017ee uk\u00e1zky n\u011bkter\u00fdch cvi\u010dn\u00fdch prvk\u016f jen zd\u016frazn\u00ed vysokou bojovou p\u0159ipravenost svazk\u016f a vojensk\u00fdch \u00fatvar\u016f v\u00a0r\u00e1mci region\u00e1ln\u00ed skupiny vojsk (sil) a <strong>poslou\u017e\u00ed jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 politiky vyd\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed dost jednozna\u010dn\u00e1 politick\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 vedou ke zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed ve V\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00e9m regionu kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Podle prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f tedy ofici\u00e1ln\u011b jde o\u00a0cvi\u010den\u00ed obrann\u00e9, v\u00a0podstat\u011b v\u0161ak \u201eukazujeme p\u011bst\u201c a odstra\u0161ujeme sousedy, kte\u0159\u00ed moc \u017evan\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Odli\u0161n\u00e9 ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed vojenskopolitick\u00e9 situace ze strany BR a soused\u016f a nejednozna\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle cvi\u010den\u00ed, jak je deklaruje vojensk\u00e9 velen\u00ed BR, tak de facto neponech\u00e1v\u00e1 \u0161anci pro norm\u00e1ln\u00ed komunikaci s\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm Minskem a likviduje zbytky d\u016fv\u011bry z\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomacie v\u016f\u010di n\u011bmu.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>O\u00a0\u010dem k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Ukrajina a na\u0161i z\u00e1padn\u00ed soused\u00e9 dnes prosazuj\u00ed narativa vyvozen\u00e1 ze shora popsan\u00e9ho celkov\u00e9ho vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed vojenskopolitick\u00e9ho pozad\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Netransparentnost cvi\u010den\u00ed\u00a0= hrozba invaze do sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f z\u00a0\u00fazem\u00ed BR (Ukrajina, pobaltsk\u00e9 zem\u011b).<\/li>\n<li>Rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho kontingentu na \u00fazem\u00ed BR\u00a0= \u201em\u011bkk\u00e1 okupace\u201c BR a z\u00e1nik jej\u00ed subjektivity na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ar\u00e9n\u011b.<\/li>\n<li>Snaha o\u00a0demokratick\u00fd tranzit st\u00e1tn\u00ed moci v\u00a0BR mimo kontrolu Kremlu\u00a0= hrozba okupace BR dle ukrajinsk\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u00da\u010delem rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch informa\u010dn\u00edch kampan\u00ed bylo na jednu stranu d\u00e1t Minsku podn\u011bt, aby toto cvi\u010den\u00ed \u010dasov\u011b a prostorov\u011b posunul s\u00a0odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na slo\u017eitou sociopolitickou situaci v\u00a0regionu, nebo alespo\u0148 sn\u00ed\u017eil konfliktnost sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e a omezil rusk\u00fd kontingent na nemilit\u00e1rn\u00ed slo\u017eku (zdravotn\u00edci, \u017eenijn\u00ed jednotky apod.), na druhou stranu dostat odpov\u011bdi na \u0159adu ot\u00e1zek, kter\u00e9 by umo\u017enily zd\u016fvodnit b\u011blorusk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky pro sv\u00e9 sousedy na pozad\u00ed agresivn\u00ed politiky Kremlu v\u00a0regionu:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Jak\u00e9 mechanismy, jak zabr\u00e1nit Rus\u016fm (i s\u00a0jejich agresivn\u00ed politikou) v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch provokac\u00edch v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu cvi\u010den\u00ed, vytvo\u0159ila vl\u00e1da BR?<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Je B\u011blorusko ochotno sd\u00edlet odpov\u011bdnost za p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 provokace ze strany RF v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu cvi\u010den\u00ed?<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Jak bude B\u011blorusko reagovat, kdyby se Kreml rozhodl v\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed zopakovat invazi na Donbas nebo na jih Ukrajiny?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Minsk v\u0161ak nesp\u011bch\u00e1 s\u00a0reakcemi na varov\u00e1n\u00ed, obavy a ohro\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch soused\u016f, \u010d\u00edm\u017e v\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politice p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpor s\u00a0ve\u0159ejnou prezentac\u00ed B\u011bloruska jako \u201ed\u00e1rce region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti\u201c.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>Pro\u010d Minsk nesly\u0161\u00ed<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>P\u0159i posuzov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010din vznikl\u00e9 komunika\u010dn\u00ed chyby mezi Minskem a jeho sousedy v\u00a0kontextu cvi\u010den\u00ed je nutno oz\u0159ejmit \u0159adu specifik vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed situace ze strany BR.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>B\u011bloru\u0161t\u00ed vojev\u016fdci uplat\u0148uj\u00ed velmi striktn\u00ed a tvrd\u00e9 \u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed na \u201esvoje\u201c (OSKB) a \u201eciz\u00ed\u201c (NATO). Kdy\u017e vezmeme v\u00a0potaz, \u017ee v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b ozbrojen\u00e9 struktury ve st\u00e1tn\u00ed hierarchii v\u017edy dominuj\u00ed nad \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky, politiky nebo diplomaty, je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee b\u011blorusk\u00e1 diplomacie u\u017e nedok\u00e1\u017ee opustit mantinely st\u0159etu V\u00fdchod\u00a0\u2013 Z\u00e1pad, ve\u0161ker\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 snahy Z\u00e1padu tak budou posuzov\u00e1ny podle konfliktn\u00ed logiky jako pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly nebo pokusy o\u00a0rozvr\u00e1cen\u00ed Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.<\/li>\n<li>Konfliktn\u00ed logika vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u011bta ur\u010duje tak\u00e9 specifika zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9ho diskurzu B\u011bloruska z\u00e1padn\u00edm sm\u011brem. Za prv\u00e9 nikdy neopust\u00ed r\u00e1mec \u201erozhovorov\u00e9\u201c diplomacie (\u201edialogy\u201c, \u201ejedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, \u201edebaty\u201c apod.). Za druh\u00e9 nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0modernizac\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy (demokratizac\u00ed, liberalizac\u00ed apod.). Za t\u0159et\u00ed p\u0159es 70\u00a0% ve\u0161ker\u00fdch diplomatick\u00fdch snah BR p\u0159edstavuje boj o\u00a0zahrani\u010dn\u011b ekonomick\u00e9 preference pro b\u011blorusk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby.<\/li>\n<li>Pojmy svobody, subjektivity nebo nez\u00e1vislosti zem\u011b Luka\u0161enko b\u011bhem dvou desetilet\u00ed sv\u00e9 absolutn\u00ed moci ji\u017e sublimoval a zlokalizoval ve sv\u00fdch osobn\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch atributech.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Jinak \u0159e\u010deno, dokud se neobjev\u00ed viditeln\u00e9 p\u0159edm\u011btn\u00e9 ohro\u017een\u00ed pro Luka\u0161enkovu moc v\u00a0podob\u011b alternativn\u00ed osoby jeho n\u00e1stupce v\u00a0Kremlu, siln\u00e9ho v\u016fdce protestn\u00edho hnut\u00ed, hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 hrozby pro \u201erodinn\u00e9\u201c podnik\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se organiza\u010dn\u011b vy\u010dlen\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci mocensk\u00e9ho t\u00fdmu apod., mluvit o\u00a0ohro\u017een\u00ed BR ze strany RF nem\u00e1 smysl.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/belorusko-svrchovany-stat-nebo-protektorat-rf-monitorovani-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><em>B\u011blorusko: svrchovan\u00fd st\u00e1t, nebo protektor\u00e1t RF? Monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed 2017<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>V\u0161echna tato specifika byla vzata v\u00a0potaz a pou\u017eita pro rusk\u00e9 informa\u010dn\u00ed operace a narativa rusk\u00e9 propagandy. Sta\u010d\u00ed si p\u0159ipomenout tyto:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Z\u00e1pad chyst\u00e1 \u201ebarevnou\u201c revoluci v\u00a0BR.<\/li>\n<li>Z\u00e1pad financuje a zast\u0159e\u0161uje v\u016fdce b\u011blorusk\u00e9 opozice.<\/li>\n<li>Z\u00e1pad cvi\u010d\u00ed ozbrojence na Ukrajin\u011b, v\u00a0Polsku a pobaltsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch za \u00fa\u010delem destabilizace B\u011bloruska.<\/li>\n<li>Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed radik\u00e1lov\u00e9 jsou hrozbou pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost BR. Poro\u0161enko nadr\u017euje etnick\u00fdm dobrovolnick\u00fdm prapor\u016fm. Existenci taktick\u00e9 skupiny B\u011blorusko v\u00a0r\u00e1mci Prav\u00e9ho sektoru propagandist\u00e9 a ozbrojen\u00e9 slo\u017eky prezentuj\u00ed jako hlavn\u00ed znak, \u017ee Ukrajinci hraj\u00ed dvoj\u00ed hru.<\/li>\n<li>Ukrajinsk\u00e1 anarchie ohro\u017euje bezpe\u010dnost BR: kan\u00e1l pro distribuci zbran\u00ed, semeni\u0161t\u011b politick\u00e9ho radikalismu apod.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>V\u00a0tomto kontextu stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku i \u00fa\u010dinnost n\u011bkter\u00fdch akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 RF zrealizovala na \u00fazem\u00ed BR:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Pokus o\u00a0prora\u017een\u00ed d\u017e\u00edpem na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m hrani\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159echod\u011b.<\/li>\n<li>Organizace skand\u00e1ln\u00edch incident\u016f, kdy byl ukrajinsk\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm zak\u00e1z\u00e1n vstup na \u00fazem\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b rusk\u00e9 \u010dern\u00e9 listiny, co\u017e vyvolalo diplomatick\u00e9 h\u00e1dky mezi ukrajinsk\u00fdm a b\u011blorusk\u00fdm ministerstvy zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nebyla p\u0159ipravena na ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 vy\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f.<\/li>\n<li>Stup\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed kolem cvi\u010den\u00ed, p\u0159esouv\u00e1n\u00ed techniky k\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edm hranic\u00edm na pozad\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00edho informa\u010dn\u00edho ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f b\u011blorusk\u00e9 diplomacie v\u00a0t\u00e9to v\u011bci. Prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed hlavn\u00edho vzkazu B\u011blorus\u016f o\u00a0\u201enep\u0159im\u011b\u0159enosti\u201c hysterie z\u00e1padn\u00edch expert\u016f, politik\u016f a novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f kolem cvi\u010den\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><strong>O\u00a0\u010dem ml\u010d\u00ed Kreml<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Pe\u010dliv\u00e9 p\u0159e\u010dten\u00ed n\u00e1m\u011btu cvi\u010den\u00ed a ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00a0BR, vypov\u00eddaj\u00ed, \u017ee toto cvi\u010den\u00ed m\u00e1 slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strukturu ne\u017e b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 konven\u010dn\u00ed man\u00e9vry a zahrnuje n\u00e1cvik operac\u00ed v\u0161emi ozbrojen\u00fdmi a diplomatick\u00fdmi slo\u017ekami, zat\u00edmco vlastn\u011b milit\u00e1rn\u00ed slo\u017eka m\u00e1 b\u00fdt nasazena a\u017e v\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi.<\/p>\n<p>Vyprovokovan\u00e9 situace v\u00a0informa\u010dn\u00ed, diplomatick\u00e9 a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e uk\u00e1zaly jednotu a p\u0159ipravenost tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb RF a B\u011bloruska ke spole\u010dn\u00e9mu pot\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed hybridn\u00edch vliv\u016f a hrozeb vykreslen\u00fdch v\u00a0n\u00e1m\u011btu cvi\u010den\u00ed. Na druhou stranu uk\u00e1zaly Minsku celkovou bezbrannost re\u017eimu v\u016f\u010di hybridn\u00edm vliv\u016fm a Luka\u0161enkovu naprostou z\u00e1vislost na v\u016fli Kremlu.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>N\u00e1m\u011bt cvi\u010den\u00ed: <\/em><\/strong>podle sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se v\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 nacvi\u010duje model konfliktu mezi \u201eSeve\u0159any\u201c (B\u011blorusko a Rusko) a \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ky\u201c (koalice t\u0159\u00ed agresorsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c, \u201eVesbarie\u201c a \u201eLubenie\u201c). Dle sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ci\u201c sna\u017e\u00ed rozb\u00edt svazek B\u011bloruska a Ruska, zhor\u0161it socioekonomickou situaci v\u00a0B\u011blorusku, doc\u00edlit zde zm\u011bny veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu a tohoto v\u0161eho zneu\u017e\u00edt k\u00a0obsazen\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b a vytvo\u0159en\u00ed zde st\u00e1tu \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c. N\u00e1sledn\u011b \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ci\u201c maj\u00ed v\u00a0\u00famyslu nasadit svou arm\u00e1du na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed B\u011bloruska. \u201eSeve\u0159an\u00e9\u201c mus\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b t\u011bmto pl\u00e1n\u016fm vzdorovat.<\/p>\n<p>Rozve\u010fme nahl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fd v\u00a0n\u00e1m\u011btu seznam hrozeb. \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ci\u201c se \u00fadajn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>rozb\u00edt svazek B\u011bloruska a Ruska;<\/li>\n<li>zhor\u0161it socioekonomickou situaci v\u00a0BR;<\/li>\n<li>doc\u00edlit zm\u011bny veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu;<\/li>\n<li>obsadit \u010d\u00e1st B\u011bloruska a vytvo\u0159it zde st\u00e1t s\u00a0n\u00e1zvem \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c;<\/li>\n<li>n\u00e1sledn\u011b nasadit sv\u00e9 jednotky na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed zem\u011b.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Jak m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt, t\u0159i hrozby z\u00a0p\u011bti maj\u00ed nemilit\u00e1rn\u00ed povahu a v\u00a0podstat\u011b vypad\u00e1vaj\u00ed ze zorn\u00e9ho pole \u201epozorovatel\u016f\u201c, kter\u00e9 Minsk pozval. Zde se nab\u00edz\u00ed n\u011bkolik ot\u00e1zek.<\/p>\n<p>Za prv\u00e9: <em>kde a kdy se nacvi\u010dovaly postupy, jak \u010delit hroz\u00edc\u00edmu \u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, \u201ezhor\u0161en\u00ed socioekonomick\u00e9 situace\u201c a \u201ezm\u011bn\u011b veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu\u201c<\/em>? Za druh\u00e9: <em>pod\u00edleli se na t\u011bchto cvi\u010den\u00edch i b\u011blorusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00ed slo\u017eky a b\u011bloru\u0161t\u00ed politici?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Odpov\u011b\u010f na tyto ot\u00e1zky n\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uje pod\u00edvat se v\u00a0jin\u00e9m sv\u011btle na celou \u0159adu b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1ly b\u011bhem roku.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>\u201eRozbit\u00ed Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a \u201ezhor\u0161en\u00ed socioekonomick\u00e9 situace\u201c<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Spor mezi Minskem a Kremlem o\u00a0ceny uhlovod\u00edk\u016f, kter\u00fd trval d\u00e9le ne\u017e rok, \u201eobchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c na zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9m trhu, neochota Minsku podepsat dohodu o\u00a0Z\u00f3n\u011b voln\u00e9ho obchodu a\u017e do urovn\u00e1n\u00ed spor\u016f nebo zat\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00fdch propagandist\u016f nejen\u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011b po\u0161kodily b\u011blorusk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, co\u017e zhor\u0161ilo socioekonomickou situaci v\u00a0republice, ale tak\u00e9 zp\u016fsobily krizi v\u00a0rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00fdch vztaz\u00edch. V\u00a0t\u00e9to situaci za\u010dal Kreml zaznamen\u00e1vat aktivitu z\u00e1padn\u00edch diplomat\u016f zam\u011b\u0159enou na Minsk, kter\u00e1 vyvrcholila prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm o\u00a0ochot\u011b obnovit plnohodnotn\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 vztahy mezi Washingtonem a Minskem s\u00a0n\u00e1vratem americk\u00e9ho velvyslance do b\u011blorusk\u00e9 metropole. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0takto rychl\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji vztah\u016f se Z\u00e1padem spat\u0159il Kreml onu hrozbu \u201erozbit\u00ed Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a podnikl celou \u0159adu opat\u0159en\u00ed k\u00a0ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed a stmelen\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9ho informa\u010dn\u00edho a v\u00fdznamov\u00e9ho prostoru BR a RF.<\/p>\n<p>Ve snaze o\u00a0vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed politiky v\u00a0situaci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky musel Minsk vytvo\u0159it p\u0159i kancel\u00e1\u0159i prezidenta BR a u\u00a0ozbrojen\u00fdch slo\u017eek prokremelsk\u00fd expertn\u00ed pool, kter\u00fd nejen\u017ee m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0rusk\u00fdm medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prost\u0159edk\u016fm, ale tak\u00e9 se aktivn\u011b prosazuje v\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9m informa\u010dn\u00edm prostoru, a jeho \u010dlenov\u00e9 se prezentuj\u00ed jako nov\u00ed \u201eideologov\u00e9\u201c re\u017eimu a hlavn\u00ed nositele \u201eeuroasijsk\u00fdch hodnot\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>Postup, jak \u010delit \u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c, byl tedy nacvi\u010den zapojen\u00edm ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho Minsku do prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed narativu \u201eSvazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c jako nadn\u00e1rodn\u00edho celku, kter\u00fd upoza\u010fuje n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jem BR a up\u0159ednost\u0148uje z\u00e1jem Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.<\/p>\n<p>Podle prokremelsk\u00fdch expert\u016f existence b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho z\u00e1jmu omezuje integra\u010dn\u00ed mo\u017enosti a mohla by se st\u00e1t p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou \u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c v\u00a0situaci, kdy v\u00a0medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed zcela chyb\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 projekty a spole\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1jmu BR a RF. Zm\u011bna narativu p\u0159esm\u011brovala b\u011blorusk\u00fd expertn\u00ed pool z\u00a0vlastn\u00edch propagandistick\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed typu Imchoklub na nov\u011b vznikl\u00e9 euroasijsk\u00e9 projekty jako je Sonar-2050, Sputnik apod.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/moskva-otevrela-v-belorusku-novou-frontu-informacni-valky-proti-ukrajine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Moskva otev\u0159ela v\u00a0B\u011blorusku novou frontu informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti Ukrajin\u011b<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0r\u00e1mci protip\u016fsoben\u00ed snah\u00e1m o\u00a0\u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c zrealizovali Rusov\u00e9 na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed celou \u0159adu zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edch akc\u00ed a informa\u010dn\u00edch operac\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Diskreditace ve\u0161ker\u00fdch krok\u016f a z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f soused\u016f b\u011blorusk\u00fdm prokremelsk\u00fdm expertn\u00edm poolem, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Polska, Loty\u0161ska a Ukrajiny, intenzivn\u00edm medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prosazov\u00e1n\u00edm t\u00e9matu v\u00fdcviku b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ozbrojenc\u016f na v\u00fdcvikov\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn\u00e1ch v\u00a0sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1tech, hrozby v\u00fdvozu \u201ebarevn\u00fdch revoluc\u00ed\u201c nebo odhalen\u00edm aplika\u010dn\u00edch m\u00edst a c\u00edl\u016f \u201em\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c r\u016fzn\u00fdmi \u201ez\u00e1padn\u00edmi agenty\u201c.<\/li>\n<li>Aktualizace hrozeb ze strany Ukrajiny rusk\u00fdmi tajn\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami a lokalizace bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch vztah\u016f v\u00a0r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu BR:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li>pokus o\u00a0prora\u017een\u00ed hranic d\u017e\u00edpem;<\/li>\n<li>selektivn\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u010dern\u00e9 listiny b\u011blorusk\u00fdmi ozbrojen\u00fdmi slo\u017ekami, zpravidla v\u016f\u010di ve\u0159ejn\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00fdm a soci\u00e1ln\u011b aktivn\u00edm ob\u010dan\u016fm;<\/li>\n<li>prudk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 kroky Ukrajiny v\u00a0reakci na provokace ozbrojen\u00fdch slo\u017eek BR a RF ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed nep\u0159ipravenost BR na otev\u0159enou ve\u0159ejnou politiku.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li>Ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed loajality a ochoty b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch slo\u017eek spolupracovat s\u00a0tajn\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami RF na \u00fazem\u00ed BR:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li>provokace rusk\u00fdch radik\u00e1l\u016f na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci z\u00e1stupce OBSE v\u00a0tripartitn\u00ed kontaktn\u00ed skupin\u011b;<\/li>\n<li>\u00fanos ukrajinsk\u00e9ho ob\u010dana z\u00a0\u00fazem\u00ed BR.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Stoj\u00ed p\u0159itom za zm\u00ednku, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0t\u011bchto rusk\u00fdch operac\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed RB se nedo\u010dkala pat\u0159i\u010dn\u00e9ho diplomatick\u00e9ho zhodnocen\u00ed ze strany Minsku.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>\u201eDoc\u00edlit zm\u011bny veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu\u201c, obsadit \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed a vytvo\u0159it \u201eVej\u0161norii\u201c<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se socioekonomick\u00e1 situace v\u00a0BR na pozad\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky s\u00a0RF a \u201echyby\u201c politick\u00e9ho veden\u00ed zem\u011b p\u0159i implementaci Dekretu \u010d.\u00a03 (tzv. p\u0159\u00ed\u017eivnick\u00e9ho) vyvolaly masov\u00e9 protesty v\u00a0republice. Jarn\u00ed akce p\u0159ekvapily m\u00edstn\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 slo\u017eky p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm svou geografi\u00ed. Na rozd\u00edl od minul\u00fdch opozi\u010dn\u00edch akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se konaly v\u00fdhradn\u011b v\u00a0Minsku, tentokr\u00e1t se akce p\u0159ehnaly cel\u00fdm b\u011blorusk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm a m\u011bly relativn\u011b \u017eiveln\u00fd r\u00e1z. Zm\u011bnila se tak\u00e9 r\u00e9torika protest\u016f: nejde u\u017e o\u00a0liberalizaci s\u00a0demokratizac\u00ed vl\u00e1dnouc\u00edho re\u017eimu, ale o\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 hesla a politick\u00fd tlak na Luka\u0161enka, aby dekret zru\u0161il.<\/p>\n<p>Luka\u0161enkova snaha projevit pru\u017enost, kterou po n\u011bm tehdej\u0161\u00ed situace vy\u017eadovala, na pozad\u00ed chystan\u00e9ho letn\u00edho zased\u00e1n\u00ed PA OBSE a n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy delegace MMF utrp\u011bla fiasko. Postup, jak \u201e\u010delit n\u00e1siln\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu\u201c, byl nacvi\u010den 25.\u00a0b\u0159ezna p\u0159i protestn\u00edch akc\u00edch v\u00a0Minsku a lokalizaci protest\u016f v\u00a0regionech, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159elo dojem p\u0159edst\u00edran\u00e9 situace z\u00a0d\u016fvodu rozd\u00edlu mezi potenci\u00e1lem protest\u016f a silami a prost\u0159edky k\u00a0jejich potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pozornost si zaslou\u017e\u00ed skute\u010dnost, \u017ee do n\u00e1siln\u00fdch akc\u00ed v\u00a0Minsku a pozd\u011bji v\u00a0Moskv\u011b byli nasazeni b\u00fdval\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci ukrajinsk\u00e9 zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed jednotky Berkut, co\u017e nazna\u010duje pravd\u011bpodobnou koordinaci postupu ozbrojen\u00fdch sbor\u016f BR a RF p\u0159i t\u011bchto akc\u00edch.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/exprislusnici-ukrajinskeho-berkutu-ve-sluzbach-beloruske-policie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Exp\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci ukrajinsk\u00e9ho Berkutu ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch b\u011blorusk\u00e9 policie<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee se na vojensk\u00fdch map\u00e1ch cvi\u010den\u00ed objevila \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c, je v\u00a0podstat\u011b d\u00e1na ofenzivn\u00ed podstata milit\u00e1rn\u00edho bloku man\u00e9vr\u016f, kdy sdru\u017een\u00e1 skupina \u201eSeve\u0159an\u016f\u201c nejen br\u00e1n\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 osvobozuje b\u011blorusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed od agresora.<\/p>\n<p>Informa\u010dn\u00ed a diplomatickou bitvu o\u00a0uklidn\u011bn\u00ed Z\u00e1padu, jak m\u016f\u017eeme soudit z\u00a0nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fa b\u011blorusk\u00e9 diplomacie, Minsk prohr\u00e1l. Mantry ohledn\u011b \u201eobrann\u00e9 podstaty cvi\u010den\u00ed\u201c a \u201eneutrality B\u011bloruska\u201c jako z\u00e1ruky zamezen\u00ed provokac\u00ed nem\u011bly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek, sousedn\u00ed zem\u011b NATO toti\u017e vojenskotechnickou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v\u00a0regionu nav\u00fd\u0161ily.<\/p>\n<p>Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 se tak nakonec stalo okam\u017eikem pravdy pro vojenskopolitick\u00e9 veden\u00ed BR, kdy\u017e de facto vynulovalo neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed postaven\u00ed BR a uk\u00e1zalo jeho deklarativn\u00ed podstatu.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017: vojenskopolitick\u00fd vzkaz Kremlu<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>N\u00e1m\u011bt cvi\u010den\u00ed je s\u00e1m o\u00a0sob\u011b n\u00e1zornou uk\u00e1zkou rozd\u011blen\u00ed rol\u00ed a prezentace \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f cvi\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00edch a glob\u00e1ln\u00edch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch procesech.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0t\u00e9to souvislosti <strong>uk\u00e1zan\u00e1 v\u00a0n\u00e1m\u011btu n\u00edzk\u00e1 odolnost ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho Minsku v\u016f\u010di hybridn\u00edm vliv\u016fm je vyv\u00e1\u017eena geostrategick\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy RF v\u00a0regionu<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Kdy\u017e zhodnot\u00edme kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 str\u00e1nky stability b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, m\u016f\u017eeme shrnout, \u017ee ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed Minsk dnes ztratil ambice a mo\u017enosti p\u016fsobit jako subjektov\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d v\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edch nebo region\u00e1ln\u00edch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch procesech a je zcela integrov\u00e1n do geopolitick\u00e9 a geostrategick\u00e9 z\u00f3ny z\u00e1jm\u016f a kontroly RF.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><em>Milit\u00e1rn\u00ed <\/em><\/strong>(ozbrojen\u00fd blok)\u00a0\u2013 na vznik a rozvoj \u201eregion\u00e1ln\u00ed skupiny\u201c m\u016f\u017eeme pohl\u00ed\u017eet tak, \u017ee Minsk de facto p\u0159enechal funkci strategick\u00e9ho brzd\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm. Aktivn\u00ed br\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed Rus\u016fm ve snah\u00e1ch rozm\u00edstit sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny na \u00fazem\u00ed republiky je motivov\u00e1no jak ohro\u017een\u00edm Luka\u0161enkovy osobn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, tak p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdmi hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi bonusy z\u00a0rozvoje vlastn\u00edch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na \u00fakor RF.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Informa\u010dn\u00ed <\/em><\/strong>(informa\u010dn\u011b psychologick\u00e9 operace, komunikace)\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho kontentu v\u00a0informa\u010dn\u00edm prostoru BR prakticky vylu\u010duje mo\u017enost aktivn\u00edho odporu v\u016f\u010di informa\u010dn\u00edm operac\u00edm ze strany Minsku. Intenzivn\u00ed prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed narativu \u201eSvazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a \u201eeuroasijsk\u00e9ho prostoru\u201c prokremelsk\u00fdm expertn\u00edm poolem ukazuje druho\u0159adost n\u00e1rodn\u00edho z\u00e1jm\u016f oproti euroasijsk\u00e9mu integra\u010dn\u00edmu projektu a tot\u00e1ln\u00ed integraci informa\u010dn\u00edch zdroj\u016f BR do syst\u00e9mu rusk\u00e9 propagandy p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edho na postsov\u011btsk\u00e9m prostoru.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Kybernetick\u00e1 <\/em><\/strong>(kroky ve sf\u00e9\u0159e kybernetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a elektronick\u00fdch komunika\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f)\u00a0\u2013 rusk\u00e1 kontrola komunika\u010dn\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f se stala jednou z\u00a0hlavn\u00edch podm\u00ednek nav\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159ovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu raketov\u00e9 soupravy Polonez na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 dru\u017eice.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Sociopolitick\u00e1 <\/em><\/strong>(vliv ve vnitropolitick\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e, soci\u00e1ln\u00edm in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed a hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed)\u00a0\u2013 sf\u00e9ra lokalizace Luka\u0161enkova vlivu a realizace jeho mocensk\u00fdch ambic (ve v\u011bcech vlastnictv\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch podnik\u016f a spole\u010dnost\u00ed), rozvoj \u201eb\u011blorusk\u00e9ho socioekonomick\u00e9ho modelu\u201c st\u00e1tn\u00edho kapitalismu. Podstata a podm\u00ednky urovn\u00e1n\u00ed uhlovod\u00edkov\u00e9ho sporu, obchodn\u00edho st\u0159etu nebo pot\u0159eba pravideln\u00fdch dotac\u00ed ukazuje naprostou z\u00e1vislost b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho modelu na rusk\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Diplomatick\u00e1 <\/em><\/strong>(lokalizace diplomatick\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu zem\u011b)\u00a0\u2013 samotn\u00e9 kon\u00e1n\u00ed takto rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho ofenzivn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed ve st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed situaci ukazuje, \u017ee Minsk uznal v\u016fd\u010d\u00ed roli RF na budov\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury a na zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9m obrazu BR. Zejm\u00e9na kdy\u017e se Minsk musel pot\u00fdkat s\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edm informa\u010dn\u00edm odporem v\u00a0r\u00e1mci p\u0159\u00edprav cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 a s\u00a0vlastn\u00ed bezradnost\u00ed se vzkazy pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomatick\u00fd sbor, \u017ee chystan\u00e9 man\u00e9vry jsou bezpe\u010dn\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Podle z\u00e1m\u011bru Kremlu by si Minsk m\u011bl uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee ve\u0161ker\u00e9 hry na multivektorovost skon\u010dily a \u017ee ve vznikl\u00e9 situaci nem\u00e1 Minsk v\u00edce mo\u017enost\u00ed pro geopolitick\u00e9 man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed, ne\u017e m\u011bla sov\u011btsk\u00e1 Ukrajina v\u00a0dob\u00e1ch Bre\u017en\u011bva.<\/p>\n<p>Pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b cvi\u010den\u00ed vyzna\u010duje n\u00e1roky Kremlu na B\u011blorusko jako z\u00f3nu vlastn\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f. N\u00e1m\u011bt cvi\u010den\u00ed by m\u011bl zchladit touhu kter\u00e9koli zem\u011b pod\u00edlet se na procesu tranzitu st\u00e1tn\u00ed moci v\u00a0BR. Nez\u00e1visle na tom, jako formou a jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem bude tento proces prob\u00edhat, bude striktn\u011b kontrolov\u00e1n Kremlem, a ve\u0161ker\u00e9 pokusy o\u00a0\u201ebarevn\u00e9 revoluce\u201c budou prost\u011b utopeny v\u00a0krvi.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>\u201eMinsk je n\u00e1\u0161\u201c<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00e9 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed s\u00a0regul\u00e9rn\u00ed uk\u00e1zkou konfliktu mezi b\u011blorusk\u00fdm vojenskopolitick\u00fdm veden\u00edm a z\u00e1padn\u00edmi odp\u016frci cvi\u010den\u00ed na pozad\u00ed prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed narativu \u201eSvazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a \u201eeuroasijsk\u00e9ho prostoru\u201c prokremelsk\u00fdm expertn\u00edm poolem na vnitrost\u00e1tn\u00edm voli\u010dsk\u00e9m trhu bude pod\u00e1no jako konec b\u011blorusk\u00e9 \u201emultivektorovosti\u201c a bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho projektu \u201em\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c v\u00a0z\u00e1pase se Z\u00e1padem o\u00a0B\u011blorusko.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter \" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2015\/12\/InformNapalm_logo_05.png\" width=\"108\" height=\"50\" \/>Autorem publikace je <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100000022362291\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dmytro Hromakov<\/a>, vedouc\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch projekt\u016f Centra soci\u00e1ln\u00edho in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed \u201eRozpozn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a anal\u00fdza nesyst\u00e9mov\u00fdch krok\u016f\u201c.<br \/>\n(<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Creative Commons \u2014 Attribution 4.0 International \u2014 CC BY 4.0<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong>Klikn\u011bte na \u201eSd\u00edlet\u201c <\/strong>a <strong>pod\u011blte se s\u00a0p\u0159\u00e1teli.<br \/>\n<\/strong>Sta\u0148te se fanou\u0161ky str\u00e1nky <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/informnapalmcesko\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">InformNapalm \u010cesko<\/a> na Facebooku a nechte se pohotov\u011b informovat o\u00a0nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvc\u00edch v\u00a0\u010de\u0161tin\u011b.<\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>P\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Medi\u00e1ln\u00ed pozdvi\u017een\u00ed kolem spole\u010dn\u00e9ho rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 vzbudilo v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f \u00fadiv a nepochopen\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":78,"featured_media":3520,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[523,1079,1,516,993],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics","category-belorusko","category-hlavni-zpravy","category-all-news","category-politika"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad 2017: o \u010dem k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad, pro\u010d nesly\u0161\u00ed Minsk a o \u010dem ml\u010d\u00ed Kreml - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad 2017: o \u010dem k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad, pro\u010d nesly\u0161\u00ed Minsk a o \u010dem ml\u010d\u00ed Kreml - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Medi\u00e1ln\u00ed pozdvi\u017een\u00ed kolem spole\u010dn\u00e9ho rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 vzbudilo v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f \u00fadiv a nepochopen\u00ed. 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Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak...","og_url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/","og_site_name":"InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)","article_published_time":"2017-09-18T21:41:34+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-09-19T21:49:31+00:00","og_image":[{"width":642,"height":336,"url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2017\/09\/Cvi-en-Z-pad-2017_-o-em-k-i-Z-pad-pro-nesly-Minsk-a-o-em-ml-Kreml.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"svatoslav","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"svatoslav","Est. reading time":"20 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/"},"author":{"name":"svatoslav","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/#\/schema\/person\/df2cf86bd5e35ae01a82d1108d3c5f51"},"headline":"Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad 2017: o \u010dem k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad, pro\u010d nesly\u0161\u00ed Minsk a o \u010dem ml\u010d\u00ed Kreml","datePublished":"2017-09-18T21:41:34+00:00","dateModified":"2017-09-19T21:49:31+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/"},"wordCount":3948,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2017\/09\/Cvi-en-Z-pad-2017_-o-em-k-i-Z-pad-pro-nesly-Minsk-a-o-em-ml-Kreml.jpg","articleSection":["Analytika","B\u011blorusko","Hlavn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy","Novinky","Politika"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/","url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/cviceni-zapad-2017-o-cem-krici-zapad-proc-neslysi-minsk-o-cem-mlci-kreml\/","name":"Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad 2017: o \u010dem k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad, pro\u010d nesly\u0161\u00ed Minsk a o \u010dem ml\u010d\u00ed Kreml - 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Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak pozorn\u011bji pod\u00edv\u00e1me na vojenskopolitickou situaci v\u00a0regionu, na skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah cvi\u010den\u00ed a na dynamiku v\u00fdvoje ukrajinsko-rusk\u00e9ho konfliktu, pak n\u00e1m reakce na prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0kontextu vygenerovan\u00fdch hrozeb a\u017e tak nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 nep\u0159ijde.\r\n<h2><strong><em>Vojenskopolitick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\r\n<strong>S\u00a0ohledem na <\/strong>obvin\u011bn\u00ed RF z\u00a0agrese proti Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 zazn\u011bla z\u00a0Macronov\u00fdch \u00fast, nulov\u00fd p\u0159\u00ednos setk\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Putinem a Trumpem p\u0159i summitu G20, tvrdou rezoluci letn\u00edho zased\u00e1n\u00ed Parlamentn\u00edho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OBSE a dal\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 se v\u00a0regionu odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>horkou f\u00e1zi ukrajinsko-rusk\u00e9ho konfliktu na Donbasu, jak m\u00edn\u00ed americk\u00fd zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed z\u00e1stupce John Waker;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed proti Rusku;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>tvrdou zm\u011bnu form\u00e1tu vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho procesu, kdy byla RF de facto prohl\u00e1\u0161ena za agresorskou zemi;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>p\u0159\u00edpravu a kon\u00e1n\u00ed provokativn\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho velitelsk\u00e9ho a \u0161t\u00e1bn\u00edho cvi\u010den\u00ed RF Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 u\u00a0hranic s\u00a0pobaltsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi a Ukrajinou;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed se militarizaci regionu;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>nesrozumitelnou a dvojakou politiku RF v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b, kdy ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 ji\u017e trp\u00ed, zat\u00edmco diplomat\u00e9 se st\u00e1le domlouvaj\u00ed na minimalizaci v\u00fddaj\u016f;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>pokrizovou etapu ve vztaz\u00edch mezi BR a Ruskem v\u00a0d\u016fsledku bezm\u00e1la rok trvaj\u00edc\u00edho sporu kolem cen uhlovod\u00edk\u016f<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\np\u016fsob\u00ed <strong>samotn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed Minsku uspo\u0159\u00e1dat cvi\u010den\u00ed <\/strong>na v\u0161echny sousedy jako d\u011btsk\u00e1 hra se sirkami na benzinov\u00e9 pump\u011b.\r\n\r\nMinsk v\u0161ak nevid\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou logiku na varov\u00e1n\u00edch, kter\u00e1 se val\u00ed snad odev\u0161ud, a podobn\u011b jako jeho kremel\u0161t\u00ed partne\u0159i d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed vlastn\u00edch p\u0159edstav o\u00a0okoln\u00ed realit\u011b, kdy ve\u0161ker\u00e1 problematika vojenskopolitick\u00e9 situace a hrozeb v\u00a0regionu zapad\u00e1 do jedin\u00e9 my\u0161lenky: <strong>NATO navy\u0161uje frekvenci cvi\u010den\u00ed a zapojen\u00fdch vojsk u\u00a0hranic Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, proto mus\u00edme v\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0RF jsme \u201ejednotn\u00ed a neporaziteln\u00ed\u201c<\/strong>.\r\n\r\nP\u0159i prezentaci n\u00e1m\u011btu cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 Aleh B\u011blakon\u011bu uvedl, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpravy spole\u010dn\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fdch a rusk\u00fdch Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil prob\u00edhaj\u00ed na pozad\u00ed komplikovan\u00e9 vojenskopolitick\u00e9 situace v\u00a0regionu. <strong>U\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edch hranic Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu byla z\u0159\u00edzena p\u0159edsunut\u00e1 velic\u00ed st\u0159ediska NATO. Aliance ve velk\u00e9m po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v\u00a0podstat\u011b tak\u0159ka navazuj\u00ed jedno na druh\u00e9 <\/strong>a kdy se nacvi\u010duje pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vojsk v\u00a0t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti st\u00e1tn\u00edch hranic B\u011bloruska. Aleh B\u011blakon\u011bu <a href=\"http:\/\/www.belta.by\/society\/view\/azhiotazh-v-svjazi-s-ucheniem-zapad-2017-neponjaten-belokonev-263865-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">konstatoval<\/a>, \u017ee <strong>\u010detnost cvi\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0regionu se za posledn\u00edch 8\u00a0let zdvojn\u00e1sobila a po\u010dty jednotek pod\u00edlej\u00edc\u00edch se na cvi\u010den\u00edch se v\u00edce ne\u017e ztrojn\u00e1sobily<\/strong>.\r\n\r\nV\u00a0koment\u00e1\u0159i k\u00a0\u00fa\u010del\u016fm cvi\u010den\u00ed pro ruskou zpravodajskou agenturu TASS ministr obrany BR Andrej Raukou <a href=\"https:\/\/news.tut.by\/economics\/551726.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>: \u201eNem\u00e1me co tajit. T\u00e9matika na\u0161eho cvi\u010den\u00ed je obrann\u00e1. To\u0165 na jednu stranu. <strong>Na stranu druhou <\/strong>na\u0161e vojska maj\u00ed tak vysokou \u00farove\u0148 v\u00fdcviku, \u017ee uk\u00e1zky n\u011bkter\u00fdch cvi\u010dn\u00fdch prvk\u016f jen zd\u016frazn\u00ed vysokou bojovou p\u0159ipravenost svazk\u016f a vojensk\u00fdch \u00fatvar\u016f v\u00a0r\u00e1mci region\u00e1ln\u00ed skupiny vojsk (sil) a <strong>poslou\u017e\u00ed jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 politiky vyd\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed dost jednozna\u010dn\u00e1 politick\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 vedou ke zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed ve V\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00e9m regionu kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti<\/strong>.\r\n\r\nPodle prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f tedy ofici\u00e1ln\u011b jde o\u00a0cvi\u010den\u00ed obrann\u00e9, v\u00a0podstat\u011b v\u0161ak \u201eukazujeme p\u011bst\u201c a odstra\u0161ujeme sousedy, kte\u0159\u00ed moc \u017evan\u00ed.\r\n\r\nOdli\u0161n\u00e9 ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed vojenskopolitick\u00e9 situace ze strany BR a soused\u016f a nejednozna\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle cvi\u010den\u00ed, jak je deklaruje vojensk\u00e9 velen\u00ed BR, tak de facto neponech\u00e1v\u00e1 \u0161anci pro norm\u00e1ln\u00ed komunikaci s\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm Minskem a likviduje zbytky d\u016fv\u011bry z\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomacie v\u016f\u010di n\u011bmu.\r\n<h2><strong><em>O\u00a0\u010dem k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nUkrajina a na\u0161i z\u00e1padn\u00ed soused\u00e9 dnes prosazuj\u00ed narativa vyvozen\u00e1 ze shora popsan\u00e9ho celkov\u00e9ho vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed vojenskopolitick\u00e9ho pozad\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed:\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>Netransparentnost cvi\u010den\u00ed\u00a0= hrozba invaze do sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f z\u00a0\u00fazem\u00ed BR (Ukrajina, pobaltsk\u00e9 zem\u011b).<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho kontingentu na \u00fazem\u00ed BR\u00a0= \u201em\u011bkk\u00e1 okupace\u201c BR a z\u00e1nik jej\u00ed subjektivity na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ar\u00e9n\u011b.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Snaha o\u00a0demokratick\u00fd tranzit st\u00e1tn\u00ed moci v\u00a0BR mimo kontrolu Kremlu\u00a0= hrozba okupace BR dle ukrajinsk\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n\u00da\u010delem rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch informa\u010dn\u00edch kampan\u00ed bylo na jednu stranu d\u00e1t Minsku podn\u011bt, aby toto cvi\u010den\u00ed \u010dasov\u011b a prostorov\u011b posunul s\u00a0odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na slo\u017eitou sociopolitickou situaci v\u00a0regionu, nebo alespo\u0148 sn\u00ed\u017eil konfliktnost sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e a omezil rusk\u00fd kontingent na nemilit\u00e1rn\u00ed slo\u017eku (zdravotn\u00edci, \u017eenijn\u00ed jednotky apod.), na druhou stranu dostat odpov\u011bdi na \u0159adu ot\u00e1zek, kter\u00e9 by umo\u017enily zd\u016fvodnit b\u011blorusk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky pro sv\u00e9 sousedy na pozad\u00ed agresivn\u00ed politiky Kremlu v\u00a0regionu:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><em>Jak\u00e9 mechanismy, jak zabr\u00e1nit Rus\u016fm (i s\u00a0jejich agresivn\u00ed politikou) v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch provokac\u00edch v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu cvi\u010den\u00ed, vytvo\u0159ila vl\u00e1da BR?<\/em><\/li>\r\n \t<li><em>Je B\u011blorusko ochotno sd\u00edlet odpov\u011bdnost za p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 provokace ze strany RF v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu cvi\u010den\u00ed?<\/em><\/li>\r\n \t<li><em>Jak bude B\u011blorusko reagovat, kdyby se Kreml rozhodl v\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed zopakovat invazi na Donbas nebo na jih Ukrajiny?<\/em><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nMinsk v\u0161ak nesp\u011bch\u00e1 s\u00a0reakcemi na varov\u00e1n\u00ed, obavy a ohro\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch soused\u016f, \u010d\u00edm\u017e v\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politice p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpor s\u00a0ve\u0159ejnou prezentac\u00ed B\u011bloruska jako \u201ed\u00e1rce region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti\u201c.\r\n<h2><strong><em>Pro\u010d Minsk nesly\u0161\u00ed<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nP\u0159i posuzov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010din vznikl\u00e9 komunika\u010dn\u00ed chyby mezi Minskem a jeho sousedy v\u00a0kontextu cvi\u010den\u00ed je nutno oz\u0159ejmit \u0159adu specifik vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed situace ze strany BR.\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>B\u011bloru\u0161t\u00ed vojev\u016fdci uplat\u0148uj\u00ed velmi striktn\u00ed a tvrd\u00e9 \u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed na \u201esvoje\u201c (OSKB) a \u201eciz\u00ed\u201c (NATO). Kdy\u017e vezmeme v\u00a0potaz, \u017ee v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b ozbrojen\u00e9 struktury ve st\u00e1tn\u00ed hierarchii v\u017edy dominuj\u00ed nad \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky, politiky nebo diplomaty, je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee b\u011blorusk\u00e1 diplomacie u\u017e nedok\u00e1\u017ee opustit mantinely st\u0159etu V\u00fdchod\u00a0\u2013 Z\u00e1pad, ve\u0161ker\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 snahy Z\u00e1padu tak budou posuzov\u00e1ny podle konfliktn\u00ed logiky jako pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly nebo pokusy o\u00a0rozvr\u00e1cen\u00ed Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Konfliktn\u00ed logika vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u011bta ur\u010duje tak\u00e9 specifika zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9ho diskurzu B\u011bloruska z\u00e1padn\u00edm sm\u011brem. Za prv\u00e9 nikdy neopust\u00ed r\u00e1mec \u201erozhovorov\u00e9\u201c diplomacie (\u201edialogy\u201c, \u201ejedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, \u201edebaty\u201c apod.). Za druh\u00e9 nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0modernizac\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy (demokratizac\u00ed, liberalizac\u00ed apod.). Za t\u0159et\u00ed p\u0159es 70\u00a0% ve\u0161ker\u00fdch diplomatick\u00fdch snah BR p\u0159edstavuje boj o\u00a0zahrani\u010dn\u011b ekonomick\u00e9 preference pro b\u011blorusk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Pojmy svobody, subjektivity nebo nez\u00e1vislosti zem\u011b Luka\u0161enko b\u011bhem dvou desetilet\u00ed sv\u00e9 absolutn\u00ed moci ji\u017e sublimoval a zlokalizoval ve sv\u00fdch osobn\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch atributech.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\nJinak \u0159e\u010deno, dokud se neobjev\u00ed viditeln\u00e9 p\u0159edm\u011btn\u00e9 ohro\u017een\u00ed pro Luka\u0161enkovu moc v\u00a0podob\u011b alternativn\u00ed osoby jeho n\u00e1stupce v\u00a0Kremlu, siln\u00e9ho v\u016fdce protestn\u00edho hnut\u00ed, hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 hrozby pro \u201erodinn\u00e9\u201c podnik\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se organiza\u010dn\u011b vy\u010dlen\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci mocensk\u00e9ho t\u00fdmu apod., mluvit o\u00a0ohro\u017een\u00ed BR ze strany RF nem\u00e1 smysl.\r\n\r\n<strong><em>\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/belorusko-svrchovany-stat-nebo-protektorat-rf-monitorovani-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><em>B\u011blorusko: svrchovan\u00fd st\u00e1t, nebo protektor\u00e1t RF? Monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed 2017<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\nV\u0161echna tato specifika byla vzata v\u00a0potaz a pou\u017eita pro rusk\u00e9 informa\u010dn\u00ed operace a narativa rusk\u00e9 propagandy. Sta\u010d\u00ed si p\u0159ipomenout tyto:\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>Z\u00e1pad chyst\u00e1 \u201ebarevnou\u201c revoluci v\u00a0BR.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Z\u00e1pad financuje a zast\u0159e\u0161uje v\u016fdce b\u011blorusk\u00e9 opozice.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Z\u00e1pad cvi\u010d\u00ed ozbrojence na Ukrajin\u011b, v\u00a0Polsku a pobaltsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch za \u00fa\u010delem destabilizace B\u011bloruska.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed radik\u00e1lov\u00e9 jsou hrozbou pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost BR. Poro\u0161enko nadr\u017euje etnick\u00fdm dobrovolnick\u00fdm prapor\u016fm. Existenci taktick\u00e9 skupiny B\u011blorusko v\u00a0r\u00e1mci Prav\u00e9ho sektoru propagandist\u00e9 a ozbrojen\u00e9 slo\u017eky prezentuj\u00ed jako hlavn\u00ed znak, \u017ee Ukrajinci hraj\u00ed dvoj\u00ed hru.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Ukrajinsk\u00e1 anarchie ohro\u017euje bezpe\u010dnost BR: kan\u00e1l pro distribuci zbran\u00ed, semeni\u0161t\u011b politick\u00e9ho radikalismu apod.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\nV\u00a0tomto kontextu stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku i \u00fa\u010dinnost n\u011bkter\u00fdch akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 RF zrealizovala na \u00fazem\u00ed BR:\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>Pokus o\u00a0prora\u017een\u00ed d\u017e\u00edpem na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m hrani\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159echod\u011b.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Organizace skand\u00e1ln\u00edch incident\u016f, kdy byl ukrajinsk\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm zak\u00e1z\u00e1n vstup na \u00fazem\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b rusk\u00e9 \u010dern\u00e9 listiny, co\u017e vyvolalo diplomatick\u00e9 h\u00e1dky mezi ukrajinsk\u00fdm a b\u011blorusk\u00fdm ministerstvy zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nebyla p\u0159ipravena na ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 vy\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Stup\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed kolem cvi\u010den\u00ed, p\u0159esouv\u00e1n\u00ed techniky k\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edm hranic\u00edm na pozad\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00edho informa\u010dn\u00edho ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f b\u011blorusk\u00e9 diplomacie v\u00a0t\u00e9to v\u011bci. Prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed hlavn\u00edho vzkazu B\u011blorus\u016f o\u00a0\u201enep\u0159im\u011b\u0159enosti\u201c hysterie z\u00e1padn\u00edch expert\u016f, politik\u016f a novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f kolem cvi\u010den\u00ed.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<h2><strong>O\u00a0\u010dem ml\u010d\u00ed Kreml<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nPe\u010dliv\u00e9 p\u0159e\u010dten\u00ed n\u00e1m\u011btu cvi\u010den\u00ed a ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00a0BR, vypov\u00eddaj\u00ed, \u017ee toto cvi\u010den\u00ed m\u00e1 slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strukturu ne\u017e b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 konven\u010dn\u00ed man\u00e9vry a zahrnuje n\u00e1cvik operac\u00ed v\u0161emi ozbrojen\u00fdmi a diplomatick\u00fdmi slo\u017ekami, zat\u00edmco vlastn\u011b milit\u00e1rn\u00ed slo\u017eka m\u00e1 b\u00fdt nasazena a\u017e v\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi.\r\n\r\nVyprovokovan\u00e9 situace v\u00a0informa\u010dn\u00ed, diplomatick\u00e9 a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e uk\u00e1zaly jednotu a p\u0159ipravenost tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb RF a B\u011bloruska ke spole\u010dn\u00e9mu pot\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed hybridn\u00edch vliv\u016f a hrozeb vykreslen\u00fdch v\u00a0n\u00e1m\u011btu cvi\u010den\u00ed. Na druhou stranu uk\u00e1zaly Minsku celkovou bezbrannost re\u017eimu v\u016f\u010di hybridn\u00edm vliv\u016fm a Luka\u0161enkovu naprostou z\u00e1vislost na v\u016fli Kremlu.\r\n\r\n<strong><em>N\u00e1m\u011bt cvi\u010den\u00ed: <\/em><\/strong>podle sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se v\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 nacvi\u010duje model konfliktu mezi \u201eSeve\u0159any\u201c (B\u011blorusko a Rusko) a \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ky\u201c (koalice t\u0159\u00ed agresorsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c, \u201eVesbarie\u201c a \u201eLubenie\u201c). Dle sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ci\u201c sna\u017e\u00ed rozb\u00edt svazek B\u011bloruska a Ruska, zhor\u0161it socioekonomickou situaci v\u00a0B\u011blorusku, doc\u00edlit zde zm\u011bny veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu a tohoto v\u0161eho zneu\u017e\u00edt k\u00a0obsazen\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b a vytvo\u0159en\u00ed zde st\u00e1tu \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c. N\u00e1sledn\u011b \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ci\u201c maj\u00ed v\u00a0\u00famyslu nasadit svou arm\u00e1du na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed B\u011bloruska. \u201eSeve\u0159an\u00e9\u201c mus\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b t\u011bmto pl\u00e1n\u016fm vzdorovat.\r\n\r\nRozve\u010fme nahl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fd v\u00a0n\u00e1m\u011btu seznam hrozeb. \u201eZ\u00e1pa\u010f\u00e1ci\u201c se \u00fadajn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>rozb\u00edt svazek B\u011bloruska a Ruska;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>zhor\u0161it socioekonomickou situaci v\u00a0BR;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>doc\u00edlit zm\u011bny veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>obsadit \u010d\u00e1st B\u011bloruska a vytvo\u0159it zde st\u00e1t s\u00a0n\u00e1zvem \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>n\u00e1sledn\u011b nasadit sv\u00e9 jednotky na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed zem\u011b.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nJak m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt, t\u0159i hrozby z\u00a0p\u011bti maj\u00ed nemilit\u00e1rn\u00ed povahu a v\u00a0podstat\u011b vypad\u00e1vaj\u00ed ze zorn\u00e9ho pole \u201epozorovatel\u016f\u201c, kter\u00e9 Minsk pozval. Zde se nab\u00edz\u00ed n\u011bkolik ot\u00e1zek.\r\n\r\nZa prv\u00e9: <em>kde a kdy se nacvi\u010dovaly postupy, jak \u010delit hroz\u00edc\u00edmu \u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, \u201ezhor\u0161en\u00ed socioekonomick\u00e9 situace\u201c a \u201ezm\u011bn\u011b veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu\u201c<\/em>? Za druh\u00e9: <em>pod\u00edleli se na t\u011bchto cvi\u010den\u00edch i b\u011blorusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00ed slo\u017eky a b\u011bloru\u0161t\u00ed politici?<\/em>\r\n\r\nOdpov\u011b\u010f na tyto ot\u00e1zky n\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uje pod\u00edvat se v\u00a0jin\u00e9m sv\u011btle na celou \u0159adu b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1ly b\u011bhem roku.\r\n<h2><strong><em>\u201eRozbit\u00ed Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a \u201ezhor\u0161en\u00ed socioekonomick\u00e9 situace\u201c<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nSpor mezi Minskem a Kremlem o\u00a0ceny uhlovod\u00edk\u016f, kter\u00fd trval d\u00e9le ne\u017e rok, \u201eobchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c na zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9m trhu, neochota Minsku podepsat dohodu o\u00a0Z\u00f3n\u011b voln\u00e9ho obchodu a\u017e do urovn\u00e1n\u00ed spor\u016f nebo zat\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00fdch propagandist\u016f nejen\u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011b po\u0161kodily b\u011blorusk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, co\u017e zhor\u0161ilo socioekonomickou situaci v\u00a0republice, ale tak\u00e9 zp\u016fsobily krizi v\u00a0rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00fdch vztaz\u00edch. V\u00a0t\u00e9to situaci za\u010dal Kreml zaznamen\u00e1vat aktivitu z\u00e1padn\u00edch diplomat\u016f zam\u011b\u0159enou na Minsk, kter\u00e1 vyvrcholila prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm o\u00a0ochot\u011b obnovit plnohodnotn\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 vztahy mezi Washingtonem a Minskem s\u00a0n\u00e1vratem americk\u00e9ho velvyslance do b\u011blorusk\u00e9 metropole. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0takto rychl\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji vztah\u016f se Z\u00e1padem spat\u0159il Kreml onu hrozbu \u201erozbit\u00ed Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a podnikl celou \u0159adu opat\u0159en\u00ed k\u00a0ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed a stmelen\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9ho informa\u010dn\u00edho a v\u00fdznamov\u00e9ho prostoru BR a RF.\r\n\r\nVe snaze o\u00a0vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed politiky v\u00a0situaci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky musel Minsk vytvo\u0159it p\u0159i kancel\u00e1\u0159i prezidenta BR a u\u00a0ozbrojen\u00fdch slo\u017eek prokremelsk\u00fd expertn\u00ed pool, kter\u00fd nejen\u017ee m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0rusk\u00fdm medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prost\u0159edk\u016fm, ale tak\u00e9 se aktivn\u011b prosazuje v\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9m informa\u010dn\u00edm prostoru, a jeho \u010dlenov\u00e9 se prezentuj\u00ed jako nov\u00ed \u201eideologov\u00e9\u201c re\u017eimu a hlavn\u00ed nositele \u201eeuroasijsk\u00fdch hodnot\u201c.\r\n\r\nPostup, jak \u010delit \u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c, byl tedy nacvi\u010den zapojen\u00edm ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho Minsku do prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed narativu \u201eSvazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c jako nadn\u00e1rodn\u00edho celku, kter\u00fd upoza\u010fuje n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jem BR a up\u0159ednost\u0148uje z\u00e1jem Svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.\r\n\r\nPodle prokremelsk\u00fdch expert\u016f existence b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho z\u00e1jmu omezuje integra\u010dn\u00ed mo\u017enosti a mohla by se st\u00e1t p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou \u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c v\u00a0situaci, kdy v\u00a0medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed zcela chyb\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 projekty a spole\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1jmu BR a RF. Zm\u011bna narativu p\u0159esm\u011brovala b\u011blorusk\u00fd expertn\u00ed pool z\u00a0vlastn\u00edch propagandistick\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed typu Imchoklub na nov\u011b vznikl\u00e9 euroasijsk\u00e9 projekty jako je Sonar-2050, Sputnik apod.\r\n\r\n<strong><em>\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/moskva-otevrela-v-belorusku-novou-frontu-informacni-valky-proti-ukrajine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Moskva otev\u0159ela v\u00a0B\u011blorusku novou frontu informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti Ukrajin\u011b<\/a><\/em><\/strong>\r\n\r\nV\u00a0r\u00e1mci protip\u016fsoben\u00ed snah\u00e1m o\u00a0\u201erozbit\u00ed\u201c zrealizovali Rusov\u00e9 na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed celou \u0159adu zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edch akc\u00ed a informa\u010dn\u00edch operac\u00ed:\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>Diskreditace ve\u0161ker\u00fdch krok\u016f a z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f soused\u016f b\u011blorusk\u00fdm prokremelsk\u00fdm expertn\u00edm poolem, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Polska, Loty\u0161ska a Ukrajiny, intenzivn\u00edm medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prosazov\u00e1n\u00edm t\u00e9matu v\u00fdcviku b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ozbrojenc\u016f na v\u00fdcvikov\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn\u00e1ch v\u00a0sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1tech, hrozby v\u00fdvozu \u201ebarevn\u00fdch revoluc\u00ed\u201c nebo odhalen\u00edm aplika\u010dn\u00edch m\u00edst a c\u00edl\u016f \u201em\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c r\u016fzn\u00fdmi \u201ez\u00e1padn\u00edmi agenty\u201c.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Aktualizace hrozeb ze strany Ukrajiny rusk\u00fdmi tajn\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami a lokalizace bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch vztah\u016f v\u00a0r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu BR:<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>pokus o\u00a0prora\u017een\u00ed hranic d\u017e\u00edpem;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>selektivn\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u010dern\u00e9 listiny b\u011blorusk\u00fdmi ozbrojen\u00fdmi slo\u017ekami, zpravidla v\u016f\u010di ve\u0159ejn\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00fdm a soci\u00e1ln\u011b aktivn\u00edm ob\u010dan\u016fm;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>prudk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 kroky Ukrajiny v\u00a0reakci na provokace ozbrojen\u00fdch slo\u017eek BR a RF ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed nep\u0159ipravenost BR na otev\u0159enou ve\u0159ejnou politiku.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n \t<li>Ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed loajality a ochoty b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch slo\u017eek spolupracovat s\u00a0tajn\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami RF na \u00fazem\u00ed BR:<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>provokace rusk\u00fdch radik\u00e1l\u016f na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci z\u00e1stupce OBSE v\u00a0tripartitn\u00ed kontaktn\u00ed skupin\u011b;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>\u00fanos ukrajinsk\u00e9ho ob\u010dana z\u00a0\u00fazem\u00ed BR.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nStoj\u00ed p\u0159itom za zm\u00ednku, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0t\u011bchto rusk\u00fdch operac\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed RB se nedo\u010dkala pat\u0159i\u010dn\u00e9ho diplomatick\u00e9ho zhodnocen\u00ed ze strany Minsku.\r\n<h2><strong><em>\u201eDoc\u00edlit zm\u011bny veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu\u201c, obsadit \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed a vytvo\u0159it \u201eVej\u0161norii\u201c<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nZhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se socioekonomick\u00e1 situace v\u00a0BR na pozad\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky s\u00a0RF a \u201echyby\u201c politick\u00e9ho veden\u00ed zem\u011b p\u0159i implementaci Dekretu \u010d.\u00a03 (tzv. p\u0159\u00ed\u017eivnick\u00e9ho) vyvolaly masov\u00e9 protesty v\u00a0republice. Jarn\u00ed akce p\u0159ekvapily m\u00edstn\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 slo\u017eky p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm svou geografi\u00ed. Na rozd\u00edl od minul\u00fdch opozi\u010dn\u00edch akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se konaly v\u00fdhradn\u011b v\u00a0Minsku, tentokr\u00e1t se akce p\u0159ehnaly cel\u00fdm b\u011blorusk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm a m\u011bly relativn\u011b \u017eiveln\u00fd r\u00e1z. Zm\u011bnila se tak\u00e9 r\u00e9torika protest\u016f: nejde u\u017e o\u00a0liberalizaci s\u00a0demokratizac\u00ed vl\u00e1dnouc\u00edho re\u017eimu, ale o\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 hesla a politick\u00fd tlak na Luka\u0161enka, aby dekret zru\u0161il.\r\n\r\nLuka\u0161enkova snaha projevit pru\u017enost, kterou po n\u011bm tehdej\u0161\u00ed situace vy\u017eadovala, na pozad\u00ed chystan\u00e9ho letn\u00edho zased\u00e1n\u00ed PA OBSE a n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy delegace MMF utrp\u011bla fiasko. Postup, jak \u201e\u010delit n\u00e1siln\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu\u201c, byl nacvi\u010den 25.\u00a0b\u0159ezna p\u0159i protestn\u00edch akc\u00edch v\u00a0Minsku a lokalizaci protest\u016f v\u00a0regionech, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159elo dojem p\u0159edst\u00edran\u00e9 situace z\u00a0d\u016fvodu rozd\u00edlu mezi potenci\u00e1lem protest\u016f a silami a prost\u0159edky k\u00a0jejich potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pozornost si zaslou\u017e\u00ed skute\u010dnost, \u017ee do n\u00e1siln\u00fdch akc\u00ed v\u00a0Minsku a pozd\u011bji v\u00a0Moskv\u011b byli nasazeni b\u00fdval\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci ukrajinsk\u00e9 zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed jednotky Berkut, co\u017e nazna\u010duje pravd\u011bpodobnou koordinaci postupu ozbrojen\u00fdch sbor\u016f BR a RF p\u0159i t\u011bchto akc\u00edch.\r\n\r\n<strong><em>\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/exprislusnici-ukrajinskeho-berkutu-ve-sluzbach-beloruske-policie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Exp\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci ukrajinsk\u00e9ho Berkutu ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch b\u011blorusk\u00e9 policie<\/a><\/em><\/strong>\r\n\r\nSkute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee se na vojensk\u00fdch map\u00e1ch cvi\u010den\u00ed objevila \u201eVej\u0161norie\u201c, je v\u00a0podstat\u011b d\u00e1na ofenzivn\u00ed podstata milit\u00e1rn\u00edho bloku man\u00e9vr\u016f, kdy sdru\u017een\u00e1 skupina \u201eSeve\u0159an\u016f\u201c nejen br\u00e1n\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 osvobozuje b\u011blorusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed od agresora.\r\n\r\nInforma\u010dn\u00ed a diplomatickou bitvu o\u00a0uklidn\u011bn\u00ed Z\u00e1padu, jak m\u016f\u017eeme soudit z\u00a0nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fa b\u011blorusk\u00e9 diplomacie, Minsk prohr\u00e1l. Mantry ohledn\u011b \u201eobrann\u00e9 podstaty cvi\u010den\u00ed\u201c a \u201eneutrality B\u011bloruska\u201c jako z\u00e1ruky zamezen\u00ed provokac\u00ed nem\u011bly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek, sousedn\u00ed zem\u011b NATO toti\u017e vojenskotechnickou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v\u00a0regionu nav\u00fd\u0161ily.\r\n\r\nCvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 se tak nakonec stalo okam\u017eikem pravdy pro vojenskopolitick\u00e9 veden\u00ed BR, kdy\u017e de facto vynulovalo neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed postaven\u00ed BR a uk\u00e1zalo jeho deklarativn\u00ed podstatu.\r\n<h2><strong><em>Cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017: vojenskopolitick\u00fd vzkaz Kremlu<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nN\u00e1m\u011bt cvi\u010den\u00ed je s\u00e1m o\u00a0sob\u011b n\u00e1zornou uk\u00e1zkou rozd\u011blen\u00ed rol\u00ed a prezentace \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f cvi\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00edch a glob\u00e1ln\u00edch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch procesech.\r\n\r\nV\u00a0t\u00e9to souvislosti <strong>uk\u00e1zan\u00e1 v\u00a0n\u00e1m\u011btu n\u00edzk\u00e1 odolnost ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho Minsku v\u016f\u010di hybridn\u00edm vliv\u016fm je vyv\u00e1\u017eena geostrategick\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy RF v\u00a0regionu<\/strong>.\r\n\r\nKdy\u017e zhodnot\u00edme kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 str\u00e1nky stability b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, m\u016f\u017eeme shrnout, \u017ee ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed Minsk dnes ztratil ambice a mo\u017enosti p\u016fsobit jako subjektov\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d v\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edch nebo region\u00e1ln\u00edch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch procesech a je zcela integrov\u00e1n do geopolitick\u00e9 a geostrategick\u00e9 z\u00f3ny z\u00e1jm\u016f a kontroly RF.\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li><strong><em>Milit\u00e1rn\u00ed <\/em><\/strong>(ozbrojen\u00fd blok)\u00a0\u2013 na vznik a rozvoj \u201eregion\u00e1ln\u00ed skupiny\u201c m\u016f\u017eeme pohl\u00ed\u017eet tak, \u017ee Minsk de facto p\u0159enechal funkci strategick\u00e9ho brzd\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm. Aktivn\u00ed br\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed Rus\u016fm ve snah\u00e1ch rozm\u00edstit sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny na \u00fazem\u00ed republiky je motivov\u00e1no jak ohro\u017een\u00edm Luka\u0161enkovy osobn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, tak p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdmi hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi bonusy z\u00a0rozvoje vlastn\u00edch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na \u00fakor RF.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong><em>Informa\u010dn\u00ed <\/em><\/strong>(informa\u010dn\u011b psychologick\u00e9 operace, komunikace)\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho kontentu v\u00a0informa\u010dn\u00edm prostoru BR prakticky vylu\u010duje mo\u017enost aktivn\u00edho odporu v\u016f\u010di informa\u010dn\u00edm operac\u00edm ze strany Minsku. Intenzivn\u00ed prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed narativu \u201eSvazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a \u201eeuroasijsk\u00e9ho prostoru\u201c prokremelsk\u00fdm expertn\u00edm poolem ukazuje druho\u0159adost n\u00e1rodn\u00edho z\u00e1jm\u016f oproti euroasijsk\u00e9mu integra\u010dn\u00edmu projektu a tot\u00e1ln\u00ed integraci informa\u010dn\u00edch zdroj\u016f BR do syst\u00e9mu rusk\u00e9 propagandy p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edho na postsov\u011btsk\u00e9m prostoru.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong><em>Kybernetick\u00e1 <\/em><\/strong>(kroky ve sf\u00e9\u0159e kybernetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a elektronick\u00fdch komunika\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f)\u00a0\u2013 rusk\u00e1 kontrola komunika\u010dn\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f se stala jednou z\u00a0hlavn\u00edch podm\u00ednek nav\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159ovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu raketov\u00e9 soupravy Polonez na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 dru\u017eice.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong><em>Sociopolitick\u00e1 <\/em><\/strong>(vliv ve vnitropolitick\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e, soci\u00e1ln\u00edm in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed a hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed)\u00a0\u2013 sf\u00e9ra lokalizace Luka\u0161enkova vlivu a realizace jeho mocensk\u00fdch ambic (ve v\u011bcech vlastnictv\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch podnik\u016f a spole\u010dnost\u00ed), rozvoj \u201eb\u011blorusk\u00e9ho socioekonomick\u00e9ho modelu\u201c st\u00e1tn\u00edho kapitalismu. Podstata a podm\u00ednky urovn\u00e1n\u00ed uhlovod\u00edkov\u00e9ho sporu, obchodn\u00edho st\u0159etu nebo pot\u0159eba pravideln\u00fdch dotac\u00ed ukazuje naprostou z\u00e1vislost b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho modelu na rusk\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong><em>Diplomatick\u00e1 <\/em><\/strong>(lokalizace diplomatick\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu zem\u011b)\u00a0\u2013 samotn\u00e9 kon\u00e1n\u00ed takto rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho ofenzivn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed ve st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed situaci ukazuje, \u017ee Minsk uznal v\u016fd\u010d\u00ed roli RF na budov\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury a na zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9m obrazu BR. Zejm\u00e9na kdy\u017e se Minsk musel pot\u00fdkat s\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edm informa\u010dn\u00edm odporem v\u00a0r\u00e1mci p\u0159\u00edprav cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 a s\u00a0vlastn\u00ed bezradnost\u00ed se vzkazy pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomatick\u00fd sbor, \u017ee chystan\u00e9 man\u00e9vry jsou bezpe\u010dn\u00e9.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\nPodle z\u00e1m\u011bru Kremlu by si Minsk m\u011bl uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee ve\u0161ker\u00e9 hry na multivektorovost skon\u010dily a \u017ee ve vznikl\u00e9 situaci nem\u00e1 Minsk v\u00edce mo\u017enost\u00ed pro geopolitick\u00e9 man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed, ne\u017e m\u011bla sov\u011btsk\u00e1 Ukrajina v\u00a0dob\u00e1ch Bre\u017en\u011bva.\r\n\r\nPro z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b cvi\u010den\u00ed vyzna\u010duje n\u00e1roky Kremlu na B\u011blorusko jako z\u00f3nu vlastn\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f. N\u00e1m\u011bt cvi\u010den\u00ed by m\u011bl zchladit touhu kter\u00e9koli zem\u011b pod\u00edlet se na procesu tranzitu st\u00e1tn\u00ed moci v\u00a0BR. Nez\u00e1visle na tom, jako formou a jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem bude tento proces prob\u00edhat, bude striktn\u011b kontrolov\u00e1n Kremlem, a ve\u0161ker\u00e9 pokusy o\u00a0\u201ebarevn\u00e9 revoluce\u201c budou prost\u011b utopeny v\u00a0krvi.\r\n<h2><strong><em>\u201eMinsk je n\u00e1\u0161\u201c<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nUskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00e9 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed s\u00a0regul\u00e9rn\u00ed uk\u00e1zkou konfliktu mezi b\u011blorusk\u00fdm vojenskopolitick\u00fdm veden\u00edm a z\u00e1padn\u00edmi odp\u016frci cvi\u010den\u00ed na pozad\u00ed prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed narativu \u201eSvazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c a \u201eeuroasijsk\u00e9ho prostoru\u201c prokremelsk\u00fdm expertn\u00edm poolem na vnitrost\u00e1tn\u00edm voli\u010dsk\u00e9m trhu bude pod\u00e1no jako konec b\u011blorusk\u00e9 \u201emultivektorovosti\u201c a bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho projektu \u201em\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c v\u00a0z\u00e1pase se Z\u00e1padem o\u00a0B\u011blorusko.\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><img class=\"aligncenter \" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2015\/12\/InformNapalm_logo_05.png\" width=\"108\" height=\"50\" \/>Autorem publikace je <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100000022362291\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dmytro Hromakov<\/a>, vedouc\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch projekt\u016f Centra soci\u00e1ln\u00edho in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed \u201eRozpozn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a anal\u00fdza nesyst\u00e9mov\u00fdch krok\u016f\u201c.\r\n(<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Creative Commons \u2014 Attribution 4.0 International \u2014 CC BY 4.0<\/a>)\r\n<strong>Klikn\u011bte na \u201eSd\u00edlet\u201c <\/strong>a <strong>pod\u011blte se s\u00a0p\u0159\u00e1teli.\r\n<\/strong>Sta\u0148te se fanou\u0161ky str\u00e1nky <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/informnapalmcesko\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">InformNapalm \u010cesko<\/a> na Facebooku a nechte se pohotov\u011b informovat o\u00a0nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvc\u00edch v\u00a0\u010de\u0161tin\u011b.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\nP\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a>","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3519","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/78"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3519"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3519\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3522,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3519\/revisions\/3522"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}