{"id":8241,"date":"2020-04-24T19:16:32","date_gmt":"2020-04-24T19:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=8241"},"modified":"2020-04-28T19:29:59","modified_gmt":"2020-04-28T19:29:59","slug":"analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/","title":{"rendered":"Analytika od centra Prometheus: jak m\u016f\u017ee COVID-19 ovlivnit zm\u011bny politick\u00e9 mapy sv\u011bta"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Dnes p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00edme \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016fm InformNapalmu zaj\u00edmav\u00fd analytick\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek o\u00a0vlivu pandemie COVIDu-19 na politickou mapu sv\u011bta. Tuto publikaci zpracoval analytik Pavlo Podobjed, kter\u00fd pracuje pro V\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 centrum bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed Prometheus.<\/em><\/strong><!--more--><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Zm\u011bn\u00ed COVID-19 politickou mapu sv\u011bta?<\/h2>\n<p>Ji\u017e dnes je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdzvy, kter\u00e9 p\u0159inesl koronavirus, dalece p\u0159esahuj\u00ed meze zdravotnick\u00e9 sf\u00e9ry. Pandemie zasadila r\u00e1nu sv\u011btov\u00e9mu hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, v\u00fdrazn\u011b zam\u00e1vala s\u00a0cenami ropy, vyvolala n\u00e1r\u016fst nezam\u011bstnanosti a v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch st\u00e1tech u\u017e poznamenala nejen soci\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale dokonce i kriminogenn\u00ed situaci.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrajinu v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 zkou\u0161ky je\u0161t\u011b teprve \u010dekaj\u00ed, ukrajinsk\u00fd st\u00e1t toti\u017e stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed existen\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdzev jako je fyzick\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed milion\u016f ob\u010dan\u016f, zamezen\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edho bankrotu, rapidn\u00edho zchudnut\u00ed populace a ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho radik\u00e1ln\u00edho zhor\u0161en\u00ed kriminogenn\u00ed situace. Do tohoto seznamu v\u0161ak mus\u00edme p\u0159idat je\u0161t\u011b jednu dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvu, kter\u00e1 nikam nezmizela, a sice Rusko a jeho ozbrojenou agresi proti Ukrajin\u011b. I kdy\u017e se prezident Zelenskyj pod\u011blil o\u00a0sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, \u017ee rusko-ukrajinskou v\u00e1lku hodl\u00e1 ukon\u010dit je\u0161t\u011b do konce sv\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, nen\u00ed v\u016fbec jasn\u00e9, jak to chce ud\u011blat.<\/p>\n<p>Je patrn\u011b, \u017ee v\u00a0kancel\u00e1\u0159i prezidenta Ukrajiny, ve vl\u00e1d\u011b ani v\u00a0parlamentu se nikdo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b nezam\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed nad t\u00edm, co by se mohlo s\u00a0Ruskou federac\u00ed st\u00e1t v\u00a0letech 2020 a\u017e 2021, jak\u00e9 dopady to bude m\u00edt pro Ukrajinu a zda je ukrajinsk\u00fd st\u00e1t schopen tyto dopady na sebe zm\u00edrnit. Jak\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m tedy m\u016f\u017ee Ukrajina \u010delit? Pro\u010d se p\u0159ed t\u011bmito v\u00fdzvami nep\u016fjde schovat? Neboli p\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno: pro\u010d p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 snaha tv\u00e1\u0159it se, \u017ee \u201e<em>to se n\u00e1s net\u00fdk\u00e1, m\u00e1me dost vlastn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f<\/em>\u201c, m\u016f\u017ee vy\u00fastit ve v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my pro Ukrajinu a Ukrajince?<\/p>\n<h2>Jak ceny ropy cloumaj\u00ed s\u00a0RF<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft \" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2020\/04\/123.jpg\" width=\"282\" height=\"150\" \/>Situace, kter\u00e1 vznikla na sv\u011btov\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch trz\u00edch, je pro rusk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e1. Prezident Centra globalistiky Strategie\u00a0XXI Mychajlo Hon\u010dar tento cenov\u00fd propad spojuje s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee dohoda o\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy, kterou sjednaly ve form\u00e1tu OPEC+ Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a Rusko, prokazateln\u011b nemohla posta\u010dit ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho nadbytku ropy. OPEC tehdy uv\u00e1d\u011bla \u00fadaj 14,7\u00a0milionu barel\u016f nadbyte\u010dn\u00e9 ropy, Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura 25\u00a0milion\u016f. Dohoda se t\u00fdkala 14,7\u00a0milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, ji\u017e dnes v\u0161ak vid\u00edme, \u017ee za\u010dne-li platit od 1.\u00a0kv\u011btna, nebude m\u00edt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek. Rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nem\u016f\u017ee odsouhlasit sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy s\u00a0rusk\u00fdmi ropn\u00fdmi spole\u010dnostmi. P\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9 ropy je ji\u017e 30\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f, nav\u00edc je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v\u00a0potaz faktor hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho propadu kv\u016fli karant\u00e9nn\u00edm omezen\u00edm. Ale kdy\u017e se nenapl\u0148uj\u00ed ani dohody o\u00a014,7\u00a0milionu barel\u016f, jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed si m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee by dohody o\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o\u00a030\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f byly \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9. Hon\u010dar uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee na rozd\u00edl od t\u011b\u017eby b\u0159idlicov\u00e9 ropy v\u00a0USA, kdy lze vrt zakonzervovat, v\u00a0Rusku to nep\u016fjde. Bu\u010f se z\u00a0vrtu t\u011b\u017e\u00ed, nebo kdy\u017e se rozhodne o\u00a0jeho zaslepen\u00ed, byla by n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 obnova prod\u011ble\u010dn\u00e1 a hospod\u00e1\u0159sky ne\u00fa\u010deln\u00e1. Pro Rusko je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 udr\u017eet sv\u016fj pod\u00edl na trhu. Jeho ropa je m\u00e9n\u011b konkurenceschopn\u00e1 ne\u017e ta sa\u00fadsk\u00e1, kter\u00e1 je nav\u00edc kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po str\u00e1nce obsahu lehk\u00fdch frakc\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch pro v\u00fdrobu benz\u00ednu. <strong>Tato situace m\u016f\u017ee vyprovokovat Moskvu a Teher\u00e1n ke spole\u010dn\u00e9mu postupu proti Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii, pop\u0159. dokonce proti \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Kazachst\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 jim konkuruj\u00ed na ropn\u00e9m trhu, zat\u00edmco rusk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det ztr\u00e1tou ropn\u00fdch dolar\u016f t\u011b\u017ece trp\u00ed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Cena ropy nen\u00ed pouh\u00fdm teoretizov\u00e1n\u00edm o\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e9m vyhrocen\u00ed mezi Moskvou a dal\u0161\u00edmi ropn\u00fdmi hr\u00e1\u010di. Je tak\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm \u010dinitelem vnitropolitick\u00e9 situace v\u00a0r\u00e1mci samotn\u00e9 federace. Zisky z\u00a0prodeje ropy jsou hlavn\u00edm zdrojem p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f rusk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu v\u00a0tvrd\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b. St\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det RF na rok 2020 po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0minim\u00e1ln\u00ed ziskovou hodnotou Urals ve v\u00fd\u0161i 42,4\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel. Ministr hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed RF Anton Siluanov prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee v\u00a0d\u016fsledku n\u00edzk\u00fdch cen ztrat\u00ed Rusko ke konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku a\u017e 40\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f. Jen v\u00a0b\u0159eznu dos\u00e1hla ztr\u00e1ta t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 300\u00a0milion\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly vyrovn\u00e1ny z\u00a0prost\u0159edk\u016f Stabiliza\u010dn\u00edho fondu RF. Na \u00fa\u010dtech Stabiliza\u010dn\u00edho fondu bylo za\u010d\u00e1tkem b\u0159ezna ulo\u017eeno 150,1\u00a0miliardy dolar\u016f. Ministerstvo financ\u00ed RF tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee tato \u010d\u00e1stka vysta\u010d\u00ed na 6 a\u017e 10\u00a0let kompenzace p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9ho deficitu v\u00a0d\u016fsledku n\u00edzk\u00fdch \u201eropn\u00fdch\u201c cen. <strong>V\u0161echny tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty v\u0161ak byly zpracov\u00e1ny t\u0159i t\u00fddny p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed zem\u011b ochromil COVID-19<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Jak m\u011bn\u00ed situaci pandemie COVIDu-19<\/h2>\n<p>Jak by mohla s\u00a0t\u011bmito v\u00fdpo\u010dty pohnout sv\u011btov\u00e1 pandemie koronaviru? Dojde k\u00a0dynamick\u00e9mu zhor\u0161en\u00ed epidemiologick\u00e9 situace a k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu oslaben\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00ed kontroly nad situac\u00ed v\u00a0regionech. Aby Moskva udr\u017eela stabiln\u00ed vnitropolitickou situaci, nesm\u00ed zastavit financov\u00e1n\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00edch soci\u00e1ln\u00edch program\u016f, zejm\u00e9na omezit dotace pro regiony z\u00a0feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu. Co\u017e nebude v\u016fbec snadn\u00e9, proto\u017ee po\u010det rusk\u00fdch region\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u010derpaj\u00ed tzv. vyrovn\u00e1vac\u00ed dotaci (hlavn\u00ed druh finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory), je podstatn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 do rozpo\u010dtu p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed. Nav\u00edc je Moskva nucena ji\u017e dnes p\u0159ezkoumat svou migra\u010dn\u00ed politiku: byla do\u010dasn\u011b zru\u0161ena \u00fahrada patentu pro pracovn\u00ed migranty, jich\u017e je podle odhadu The Jamestown Foundation 7 a\u017e 8\u00a0milion\u016f osob, p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ze st\u0159edoasijsk\u00fdch republik. Jde samoz\u0159ejm\u011b jen o\u00a0do\u010dasn\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed hlavn\u00ed probl\u00e9m s\u00a0pracovn\u00edmi migranty, a sice udr\u017eet je na pracovn\u00edm trhu v\u00a0krizov\u00e9 situaci. Miliony ob\u010dan\u016f Uzbekist\u00e1nu, T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1nu a Kyrgyzst\u00e1nu nesp\u011bchaj\u00ed na n\u00e1dra\u017e\u00ed pro j\u00edzdenky, v\u011bd\u00ed toti\u017e, \u017ee je situace doma p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm komplikovan\u00e1, a necht\u011bj\u00ed se st\u00e1t dal\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edt\u011b\u017e\u00ed pro rodiny, kv\u016fli nim\u017e se za prac\u00ed do Ruska vydali. Miliony migrant\u016f budou vy\u017eadovat v\u00fddaje ze st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 snahy jejich pot\u0159eby p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet by mohly zp\u016fsobit nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky, lid\u00e9 toti\u017e pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed j\u00eddlo a st\u0159echu nad hlavou bez ohledu na vl\u00e1dn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny. Nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 tedy ne\u017e znovu s\u00e1hnout do Stabiliza\u010dn\u00edho fondu. Vl\u00e1da bude muset \u0161et\u0159it a sni\u017eovat feder\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fddaje. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se bude vyv\u00edjet tlak na d\u00e1rcovsk\u00e9 subjekty jako je nap\u0159. Tatarst\u00e1n, kter\u00e9 se samy dostaly do nez\u00e1vid\u011bn\u00edhodn\u00e9 situace.<\/p>\n<h2>Jak\u00e9 to bude m\u00edt dopady?<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2020\/04\/456-300x243.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"243\" \/>Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti ve Vladikavkaze nab\u00edzej\u00ed bohat\u00fd materi\u00e1l pro simulace. Obl\u00edben\u00fd v\u00a0Severn\u00ed Osetii opern\u00ed p\u011bvec Vadim \u010celdijev vyzval sv\u00e9 krajany k\u00a0sabot\u00e1\u017ei karant\u00e9nn\u00edch omezen\u00ed kv\u016fli \u201evyfabulovan\u00e9mu ohro\u017een\u00ed koronavirem\u201c. V\u00a0pozdn\u00edch ve\u010dern\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch 17.\u00a0dubna policie Vadima \u010celdijeva zatkla u\u00a0n\u011bj doma v\u00a0Petrohrad\u011b a obvinila dle nov\u00e9ho z\u00e1kona o\u00a0\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u201efake news\u201c kolem COVIDu-19. I p\u0159es \u010celdijevovo zat\u010den\u00ed v\u0161ak jeho p\u0159\u00edznivci ve Vladikavkaze jeho v\u00fdzvu uposlechli a 20.\u00a0dubna p\u0159i\u0161li na hlavn\u00ed m\u011bstsk\u00e9 n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed. Vedle \u010celdijevova propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed po\u017eadoval dvoutis\u00edcov\u00fd dav zru\u0161en\u00ed na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed o\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed karant\u00e9n\u011b a odstoupen\u00ed gubern\u00e1tora tohoto regionu Vja\u010deslava Bitarova. Tentokr\u00e1t v\u0161e dopadlo pro Moskvu a m\u00edstn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady \u0161\u0165astn\u011b. I p\u0159es men\u0161\u00ed poty\u010dky s\u00a0polici\u00ed se po\u0159\u00e1dkov\u00fdm slo\u017ek\u00e1m poda\u0159ilo protestuj\u00edc\u00ed rozpr\u00e1\u0161it.<\/p>\n<p>Nicm\u00e9n\u011b i ti nejloaj\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u016f\u010di re\u017eimu ru\u0161t\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee <strong>protest ve Vladikavkazu byl jen prvn\u00edm posl\u00ed\u010dkem<\/strong>. Rusk\u00e9 severokavkazsk\u00e9 republiky jsou toti\u017e ve vznikl\u00e9 situaci obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 zraniteln\u00e9. Blahobyt m\u00edstn\u00edch obyvatel je z\u00e1visl\u00fd na feder\u00e1ln\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch injekc\u00edch, kter\u00e9 jsou dnes problematick\u00e9, a na sf\u00e9\u0159e slu\u017eeb, kter\u00e1 \u017eiv\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu ekonomicky aktivn\u00edch obyvatel. Na Severn\u00edm Kavkaze nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 giganty ani jin\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bvatel\u00e9 do st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli pro sv\u00e9 zam\u011bstnance v\u00a0situaci karant\u00e9ny zajistit jak\u00fdsi soci\u00e1ln\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek. Prodlou\u017een\u00ed karant\u00e9ny tedy nevyhnuteln\u011b vyvol\u00e1 protesty nov\u00e9. Nav\u00edc tu vznik\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m: zda rusk\u00e9 po\u0159\u00e1dkov\u00e9 slo\u017eky udr\u017e\u00ed situaci pod kontrolou. Demografick\u00fd obr\u00e1zek v\u00a0tomto regionu se z\u00e1sadn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed od zbytku Ruska. Je tu vysok\u00e1 porodnost, tud\u00ed\u017e i v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pod\u00edl ml\u00e1de\u017ee v\u00a0populaci, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161enou nebezpe\u010dnost masov\u00fdch protest\u016f. Na to se nabaluje i v\u00e1\u0161nivost a vzn\u011btliv\u00e1 povaha severokavkazsk\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f. Masov\u00e9 protesty Ingu\u0161\u016f, \u010cerkes\u016f, Avar\u016f nebo Kumyk\u016f, o\u00a0\u010ce\u010denc\u00edch ani nemluv\u011b, budou p\u0159ece jen vypadat jinak ne\u017e m\u00edtinky d\u016fchodc\u016f v\u00a0Uljanovsku nebo podnikatel\u016f v\u00a0Jekat\u011brinburgu. Kdy\u017e se hromadn\u011b vzbou\u0159\u00ed Vladikavkaz nebo dokonce Vladikavkaz sou\u010dasn\u011b s\u00a0Magasem, lze tento probl\u00e9m vy\u0159e\u0161it za pomoci m\u00edstn\u00edch policejn\u00edch slo\u017eek a Rusk\u00e9 gardy s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdmi posilami nav\u00edc nap\u0159. z\u00a0\u010ce\u010denska. Jak se v\u0161ak bude situace vyv\u00edjet v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b synchronn\u00edch rebeli\u00ed v\u00a0Severn\u00ed Osetii, Ingu\u0161sku, \u010ce\u010densku, Dagest\u00e1nu, Kabardsko-Balkarsku, Kara\u010dajevsko-\u010cerkesku a Adygejsku? A co kdy\u017e protesty propuknou i v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch regionech, t\u0159eba v\u00a0povol\u017esk\u00e9m Idel-Uralu? Zbudou je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjak\u00e9 jednotky na vysl\u00e1n\u00ed posil? Jak by vypadala interakce t\u0159eba mezi Zolotovem a jeho Ruskou gardou na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a moskevsk\u00fdm starostou na stran\u011b druh\u00e9? Bude prvn\u00ed z\u00a0nich plnit pokyny toho druh\u00e9ho? Ru\u0161t\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i u\u017e o\u00a0tom dnes nahlas pochybuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h2>Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje v\u00a0RF mohou b\u00fdt r\u016fzn\u00e9, nasimulovat je proto dnes nen\u00ed v\u016fbec snadn\u00e9. Centrum Prometheus nast\u00ednilo ty hlavn\u00ed a nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00a0nich<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>A)<\/strong> Oslaben\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy. Pos\u00edlen\u00ed role region\u016f. N\u00e1r\u016fst vlivu m\u00edstn\u00edch politick\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f: region\u00e1ln\u00edch elit, ob\u010dansk\u00fdch hnut\u00ed, aktivizace regionalistick\u00fdch a nacionalistick\u00fdch proud\u016f, pos\u00edlen\u00ed \u201ehlasu ulice\u201c. Oslaben\u00ed Ruska na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ar\u00e9n\u011b, soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00ed na vnitropolitick\u00fdch a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch probl\u00e9mech. V\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch regionech pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dost brzy vznikne situace, kdy region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dky budou muset br\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ohled na pouli\u010dn\u00ed protesty ne\u017e na feder\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady.<\/li>\n<li><strong>B) <\/strong>Masov\u00e9 nepokoje a vzpoury kv\u016fli prudk\u00e9mu zhor\u0161en\u00ed socioekonomick\u00e9 situace v\u00a0RF. Ztr\u00e1ta kontroly nad cel\u00fdmi regiony. Vznik alternativn\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch center jak na feder\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni, tak v\u00a0regionech. Dekoordinace bloku ozbrojen\u00fdch sbor\u016f. Mo\u017en\u00e1 vlna vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed samostatnost\u00ed. Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 bude doprov\u00e1zet n\u00e1siln\u00e1 konfrontace jak uvnit\u0159 subjekt\u016f federace (nap\u0159. boj mezi nacionalisty a salafisty v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch severokavkazsk\u00fdch republik\u00e1ch), tak mezi subjekty a feder\u00e1ln\u00edmi \u00fa\u0159ady, dokonce i mezi subjekty navz\u00e1jem.<\/li>\n<li><strong>C) <\/strong>P\u0159echod Moskvy k\u00a0agresivn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice s\u00a0c\u00edlem vylep\u0161it vlastn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 postaven\u00ed. Nap\u0159. rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii (ve spojenectv\u00ed s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem, jeho\u017e t\u011b\u017ea\u0159sk\u00e9 odv\u011btv\u00ed je tak \u010di tak u\u017e dlouho v\u00a0trosk\u00e1ch kv\u016fli z\u00e1padn\u00edm sankc\u00edm), r\u016fzn\u00e9 formy agrese (s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm uplatn\u011bn\u00edm nejen diplomatick\u00e9ho tlaku, ale i vojenskopolitick\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f) proti \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Kazachst\u00e1nu. Tyto kroky by m\u011bly oslabit konkurenty v\u00a0t\u011b\u017eb\u011b ropy a p\u0159isp\u011bt k\u00a0r\u016fstu cen ropy, t\u00edm p\u00e1dem i ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 situace v\u00a0RF.<\/li>\n<li><strong>D) <\/strong>N\u00e1hl\u00e1 normalizace epidemiologick\u00e9 situace. Rychl\u00e9 obnoven\u00ed kontroly feder\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f nad regiony. Zkrocen\u00ed t\u011bch sil, kter\u00e9 uk\u00e1zaly neloajalitu v\u016f\u010di Putinovi v\u00a0dob\u011b krize, p\u0159ehozen\u00ed odpov\u011bdnosti za selh\u00e1n\u00ed a chyby na vykonavatele.<\/li>\n<li><strong>E) <\/strong>Nahrazen\u00ed Putina v\u00a0d\u016fsledku ztr\u00e1ty kontroly nad situac\u00ed: sesazen\u00ed vlastn\u00edm okol\u00edm nebo dobrovoln\u00fd odchod (nap\u0159. ze zdravotn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Kter\u00fdkoli z\u00a0t\u011bchto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f nevylu\u010duje celou \u0159adu prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 mohou situaci ovlivnit, nap\u0159. intervenci USA, kter\u00e9 budou cht\u00edt Ruskou federaci zachovat jako stabiliza\u010dn\u00ed prvek v\u00a0Eurasii a prost\u0159edek k\u00a0brzd\u011bn\u00ed \u010cLR. Washington m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt pocit, \u017ee bude lep\u0161\u00ed \u201ed\u00e1t Rusku um\u011bl\u00e9 d\u00fdch\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, by\u0165 dokonce i na vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1klady, ne\u017e se pou\u0161t\u011bt do nov\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch konflikt\u016f v\u00a0\u00famyslu zabr\u00e1nit \u201enov\u00e9 S\u00fdrii\u201c.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nikam nemiz\u00ed ani mo\u017enost aktivizace Moskvy v\u00a0rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce: od zosnov\u00e1n\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch ekologick\u00fdch a technogenn\u00edch katastrof p\u0159es podn\u011bcov\u00e1n\u00ed a financov\u00e1n\u00ed protivl\u00e1dn\u00edch protest\u016f a\u017e k\u00a0organizaci teroristick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f a sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9m vnitrozem\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h2>Nad \u010d\u00edm by se tedy m\u011bla ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zamyslet u\u017e dnes?<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>Jak m\u00e1 postupovat p\u0159i ka\u017ed\u00e9m z\u00a0popsan\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.<\/li>\n<li>Je t\u0159eba zpracovat opera\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny pro ka\u017ed\u00fd ze sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f: v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b A se ud\u011bl\u00e1 B.<\/li>\n<li>Vyjasnit si linii chov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vzniku nov\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch center soub\u011b\u017en\u00fdch s\u00a0t\u011bmi ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi, tzn. jak bude Ukrajina reagovat na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 snahy t\u011bchto nov\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch center nav\u00e1zat vztahy s\u00a0Kyjevem.<\/li>\n<li>Jak bude postupovat Ukrajina v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b aktivizace odst\u0159ediv\u00fdch hnut\u00ed v\u00a0RF, autonomizace nebo dokonce vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti jednotliv\u00fdch region\u016f.<\/li>\n<li>Je nutno se p\u0159ipravit na mo\u017en\u00e9 nepokoje nebo dokonce ozbrojen\u00e9 st\u0159ety v\u00a0evropsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti RF (v\u010detn\u011b Severn\u00edho Kavkazu) a na jejich d\u016fsledky v\u00a0podob\u011b humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krize a vzniku velk\u00fdch proud\u016f uprchl\u00edk\u016f.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Situace se m\u016f\u017ee vyv\u00edjet velmi dynamicky a p\u0159ech\u00e1zet od jednoho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e k\u00a0druh\u00e9mu<\/strong>. T\u0159eba aktivizace odst\u0159ediv\u00fdch hnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee skon\u010dit n\u00e1hlou normalizac\u00ed epidemiologick\u00e9 situace, zm\u011bnou situace na trhu s\u00a0energetick\u00fdmi zdroji (zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky n\u00e1r\u016fstu spot\u0159eby a obnoven\u00ed popt\u00e1vky) a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm obnoven\u00edm postaven\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f. Tento v\u00fdvoj by mohl zp\u016fsobit z\u00e1plavu politick\u00fdch emigrant\u016f proud\u00edc\u00edch na Ukrajinu: jak rusk\u00fdch opozi\u010dn\u00edk\u016f, tak z\u00e1stupc\u016f n\u00e1rodnostn\u00edch a regionalistick\u00fdch hnut\u00ed. Jak bude v\u00a0t\u00e9to situaci postupovat Ukrajina? Jak bude vypadat na\u0161e politika v\u016f\u010di politick\u00fdm migrant\u016fm, zejm\u00e9na jde-li o\u00a0skupiny zcela odli\u0161n\u00e9 a vz\u00e1jemn\u011b znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9?<\/p>\n<p>St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da se m\u016f\u017ee samoz\u0159ejm\u011b rozhodnout pro stanovisko, kter\u00e9 je pro ni nejpohodln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: \u201e<em>N\u011bjak to snad dopadne, proto\u017ee se je\u0161t\u011b nikdy nestalo, \u017ee by to n\u011bjak nedopadlo<\/em>\u201c. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je v\u0161ak pro Ukrajinu nejhor\u0161\u00ed: st\u00e1t pod balkonem v\u011b\u017e\u00e1ku v\u00a0havarijn\u00edm stavu a sledovat jeho z\u0159\u00edcen\u00ed s\u00a0postojem vzd\u00e1len\u00e9ho div\u00e1ka. M\u00e1me p\u0159ece \u201epr\u00e1vo na omyl\u201c?<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pavlo.podobed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pavlo Podobjed<\/a>, analytik <a href=\"https:\/\/prometheus.ngo\/%d1%87%d0%b8-%d0%b7%d0%bc%d1%96%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82%d1%8c-%d0%ba%d0%be%d1%80%d0%be%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%b2%d1%96%d1%80%d1%83%d1%81-%d0%bf%d0%be%d0%bb%d1%96%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%87%d0%bd%d1%83-%d0%ba%d0%b0%d1%80\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">V\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho centra Prometheus<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u010ct\u011bte a sd\u00edlejte tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky od InformNapalmu<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/dobrovolnici-zverejnili-rozsahlou-interaktivni-databazi-ruske-agrese\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dobrovoln\u00edci zve\u0159ejnili rozs\u00e1hlou interaktivn\u00ed datab\u00e1zi rusk\u00e9 agrese<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/dobrovolnici-nasbirali-dukazy-ucasti-32-vojenskych-jednotek-ozbrojenych-sil-rf-na-zaboru-krymu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dobrovoln\u00edci nasb\u00edrali d\u016fkazy \u00fa\u010dasti 32\u00a0vojensk\u00fdch jednotek Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil RF na z\u00e1boru Krymu<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/krym-za-zavisoyu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ve\u0159ejnosti poprv\u00e9 zp\u0159\u00edstupn\u011bna kniha \u201eKrym za oponou. Pr\u016fvodce okupa\u010dn\u00ed z\u00f3nou\u201c<\/a> <\/strong><em>(ukrajinsky)<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/experti-shrnuli-mezinarodni-uspech-knihy-donbas-v-plamenech-infografika\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Experti shrnuli mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bch knihy Donbas v\u00a0plamenech. Infografika<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft \" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2015\/12\/InformNapalm_logo_05.png\" width=\"114\" height=\"50\" \/>\u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nebo p\u0159evzet\u00ed s\u00a0odkazem na zdroj je v\u00edt\u00e1no! (Creative Commons\u00a0\u2014 Attribution\u00a04.0 International\u00a0\u2014 CC BY\u00a04.0). Facebookov\u00e1 str\u00e1nka komunity InformNaplam v\u00a0\u010de\u0161tin\u011b: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/informnapalmcesko\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">InformNapalm \u010cesko<\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>P\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dnes p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00edme \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016fm InformNapalmu zaj\u00edmav\u00fd analytick\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek o\u00a0vlivu pandemie COVIDu-19 na politickou mapu sv\u011bta. Tuto publikaci zpracoval&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":78,"featured_media":8242,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[523,516,754,519],"tags":[8792,8914],"class_list":["post-8241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics","category-all-news","category-spolecnost-all-news","category-world","tag-covid-19","tag-vyzkumne-centrum-prometheus"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analytika od centra Prometheus: jak m\u016f\u017ee COVID-19 ovlivnit zm\u011bny politick\u00e9 mapy sv\u011bta - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analytika od centra Prometheus: jak m\u016f\u017ee COVID-19 ovlivnit zm\u011bny politick\u00e9 mapy sv\u011bta - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dnes p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00edme \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016fm InformNapalmu zaj\u00edmav\u00fd analytick\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek o\u00a0vlivu pandemie COVIDu-19 na politickou mapu sv\u011bta. Tuto publikaci zpracoval...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-04-24T19:16:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-04-28T19:29:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2020\/04\/Analytika-od-centra-Prometheus_-jak-m\u016f\u017ee-COVID-19-ovlivnit-zm\u011bny-politick\u00e9-mapy-sv\u011bta.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"642\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"336\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"svatoslav\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"svatoslav\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"svatoslav\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/#\/schema\/person\/df2cf86bd5e35ae01a82d1108d3c5f51\"},\"headline\":\"Analytika od centra Prometheus: jak m\u016f\u017ee COVID-19 ovlivnit zm\u011bny politick\u00e9 mapy sv\u011bta\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-04-24T19:16:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-04-28T19:29:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/\"},\"wordCount\":2757,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2020\/04\/Analytika-od-centra-Prometheus_-jak-m\u016f\u017ee-COVID-19-ovlivnit-zm\u011bny-politick\u00e9-mapy-sv\u011bta.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"covid-19\",\"v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 centrum Prometheus\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analytika\",\"Novinky\",\"Spole\u010dnost\",\"Sv\u011btov\u00fd\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/\",\"name\":\"Analytika od centra Prometheus: jak m\u016f\u017ee COVID-19 ovlivnit zm\u011bny politick\u00e9 mapy sv\u011bta - 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Tuto publikaci zpracoval...","og_url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/","og_site_name":"InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)","article_published_time":"2020-04-24T19:16:32+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-04-28T19:29:59+00:00","og_image":[{"width":642,"height":336,"url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2020\/04\/Analytika-od-centra-Prometheus_-jak-m\u016f\u017ee-COVID-19-ovlivnit-zm\u011bny-politick\u00e9-mapy-sv\u011bta.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"svatoslav","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"svatoslav","Est. reading time":"14 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/"},"author":{"name":"svatoslav","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/#\/schema\/person\/df2cf86bd5e35ae01a82d1108d3c5f51"},"headline":"Analytika od centra Prometheus: jak m\u016f\u017ee COVID-19 ovlivnit zm\u011bny politick\u00e9 mapy sv\u011bta","datePublished":"2020-04-24T19:16:32+00:00","dateModified":"2020-04-28T19:29:59+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/"},"wordCount":2757,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2020\/04\/Analytika-od-centra-Prometheus_-jak-m\u016f\u017ee-COVID-19-ovlivnit-zm\u011bny-politick\u00e9-mapy-sv\u011bta.jpg","keywords":["covid-19","v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 centrum Prometheus"],"articleSection":["Analytika","Novinky","Spole\u010dnost","Sv\u011btov\u00fd"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/","url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/analytika-od-centra-prometheus-jak-muze-covid-19-ovlivnit-zmeny-politicke-mapy-sveta\/","name":"Analytika od centra Prometheus: jak m\u016f\u017ee COVID-19 ovlivnit zm\u011bny politick\u00e9 mapy sv\u011bta - 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Tuto publikaci zpracoval analytik Pavlo Podobjed, kter\u00fd pracuje pro V\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 centrum bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed Prometheus.<\/em><\/strong><!--more-->\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\n<h2>Zm\u011bn\u00ed COVID-19 politickou mapu sv\u011bta?<\/h2>\r\nJi\u017e dnes je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdzvy, kter\u00e9 p\u0159inesl koronavirus, dalece p\u0159esahuj\u00ed meze zdravotnick\u00e9 sf\u00e9ry. Pandemie zasadila r\u00e1nu sv\u011btov\u00e9mu hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, v\u00fdrazn\u011b zam\u00e1vala s\u00a0cenami ropy, vyvolala n\u00e1r\u016fst nezam\u011bstnanosti a v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch st\u00e1tech u\u017e poznamenala nejen soci\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale dokonce i kriminogenn\u00ed situaci.\r\n\r\nUkrajinu v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 zkou\u0161ky je\u0161t\u011b teprve \u010dekaj\u00ed, ukrajinsk\u00fd st\u00e1t toti\u017e stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed existen\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdzev jako je fyzick\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed milion\u016f ob\u010dan\u016f, zamezen\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edho bankrotu, rapidn\u00edho zchudnut\u00ed populace a ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho radik\u00e1ln\u00edho zhor\u0161en\u00ed kriminogenn\u00ed situace. Do tohoto seznamu v\u0161ak mus\u00edme p\u0159idat je\u0161t\u011b jednu dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvu, kter\u00e1 nikam nezmizela, a sice Rusko a jeho ozbrojenou agresi proti Ukrajin\u011b. I kdy\u017e se prezident Zelenskyj pod\u011blil o\u00a0sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, \u017ee rusko-ukrajinskou v\u00e1lku hodl\u00e1 ukon\u010dit je\u0161t\u011b do konce sv\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, nen\u00ed v\u016fbec jasn\u00e9, jak to chce ud\u011blat.\r\n\r\nJe patrn\u011b, \u017ee v\u00a0kancel\u00e1\u0159i prezidenta Ukrajiny, ve vl\u00e1d\u011b ani v\u00a0parlamentu se nikdo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b nezam\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed nad t\u00edm, co by se mohlo s\u00a0Ruskou federac\u00ed st\u00e1t v\u00a0letech 2020 a\u017e 2021, jak\u00e9 dopady to bude m\u00edt pro Ukrajinu a zda je ukrajinsk\u00fd st\u00e1t schopen tyto dopady na sebe zm\u00edrnit. Jak\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m tedy m\u016f\u017ee Ukrajina \u010delit? Pro\u010d se p\u0159ed t\u011bmito v\u00fdzvami nep\u016fjde schovat? Neboli p\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno: pro\u010d p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 snaha tv\u00e1\u0159it se, \u017ee \u201e<em>to se n\u00e1s net\u00fdk\u00e1, m\u00e1me dost vlastn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f<\/em>\u201c, m\u016f\u017ee vy\u00fastit ve v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my pro Ukrajinu a Ukrajince?\r\n<h2>Jak ceny ropy cloumaj\u00ed s\u00a0RF<\/h2>\r\n<img class=\"alignleft \" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2020\/04\/123.jpg\" width=\"282\" height=\"150\" \/>Situace, kter\u00e1 vznikla na sv\u011btov\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch trz\u00edch, je pro rusk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e1. Prezident Centra globalistiky Strategie\u00a0XXI Mychajlo Hon\u010dar tento cenov\u00fd propad spojuje s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee dohoda o\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy, kterou sjednaly ve form\u00e1tu OPEC+ Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a Rusko, prokazateln\u011b nemohla posta\u010dit ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho nadbytku ropy. OPEC tehdy uv\u00e1d\u011bla \u00fadaj 14,7\u00a0milionu barel\u016f nadbyte\u010dn\u00e9 ropy, Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura 25\u00a0milion\u016f. Dohoda se t\u00fdkala 14,7\u00a0milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, ji\u017e dnes v\u0161ak vid\u00edme, \u017ee za\u010dne-li platit od 1.\u00a0kv\u011btna, nebude m\u00edt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek. Rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nem\u016f\u017ee odsouhlasit sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy s\u00a0rusk\u00fdmi ropn\u00fdmi spole\u010dnostmi. P\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9 ropy je ji\u017e 30\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f, nav\u00edc je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v\u00a0potaz faktor hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho propadu kv\u016fli karant\u00e9nn\u00edm omezen\u00edm. Ale kdy\u017e se nenapl\u0148uj\u00ed ani dohody o\u00a014,7\u00a0milionu barel\u016f, jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed si m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee by dohody o\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o\u00a030\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f byly \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9. Hon\u010dar uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee na rozd\u00edl od t\u011b\u017eby b\u0159idlicov\u00e9 ropy v\u00a0USA, kdy lze vrt zakonzervovat, v\u00a0Rusku to nep\u016fjde. Bu\u010f se z\u00a0vrtu t\u011b\u017e\u00ed, nebo kdy\u017e se rozhodne o\u00a0jeho zaslepen\u00ed, byla by n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 obnova prod\u011ble\u010dn\u00e1 a hospod\u00e1\u0159sky ne\u00fa\u010deln\u00e1. Pro Rusko je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 udr\u017eet sv\u016fj pod\u00edl na trhu. Jeho ropa je m\u00e9n\u011b konkurenceschopn\u00e1 ne\u017e ta sa\u00fadsk\u00e1, kter\u00e1 je nav\u00edc kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po str\u00e1nce obsahu lehk\u00fdch frakc\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch pro v\u00fdrobu benz\u00ednu. <strong>Tato situace m\u016f\u017ee vyprovokovat Moskvu a Teher\u00e1n ke spole\u010dn\u00e9mu postupu proti Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii, pop\u0159. dokonce proti \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Kazachst\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 jim konkuruj\u00ed na ropn\u00e9m trhu, zat\u00edmco rusk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det ztr\u00e1tou ropn\u00fdch dolar\u016f t\u011b\u017ece trp\u00ed<\/strong>.\r\n\r\nCena ropy nen\u00ed pouh\u00fdm teoretizov\u00e1n\u00edm o\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e9m vyhrocen\u00ed mezi Moskvou a dal\u0161\u00edmi ropn\u00fdmi hr\u00e1\u010di. Je tak\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm \u010dinitelem vnitropolitick\u00e9 situace v\u00a0r\u00e1mci samotn\u00e9 federace. Zisky z\u00a0prodeje ropy jsou hlavn\u00edm zdrojem p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f rusk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu v\u00a0tvrd\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b. St\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det RF na rok 2020 po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0minim\u00e1ln\u00ed ziskovou hodnotou Urals ve v\u00fd\u0161i 42,4\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel. Ministr hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed RF Anton Siluanov prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee v\u00a0d\u016fsledku n\u00edzk\u00fdch cen ztrat\u00ed Rusko ke konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku a\u017e 40\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f. Jen v\u00a0b\u0159eznu dos\u00e1hla ztr\u00e1ta t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 300\u00a0milion\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly vyrovn\u00e1ny z\u00a0prost\u0159edk\u016f Stabiliza\u010dn\u00edho fondu RF. Na \u00fa\u010dtech Stabiliza\u010dn\u00edho fondu bylo za\u010d\u00e1tkem b\u0159ezna ulo\u017eeno 150,1\u00a0miliardy dolar\u016f. Ministerstvo financ\u00ed RF tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee tato \u010d\u00e1stka vysta\u010d\u00ed na 6 a\u017e 10\u00a0let kompenzace p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9ho deficitu v\u00a0d\u016fsledku n\u00edzk\u00fdch \u201eropn\u00fdch\u201c cen. <strong>V\u0161echny tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty v\u0161ak byly zpracov\u00e1ny t\u0159i t\u00fddny p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed zem\u011b ochromil COVID-19<\/strong>.\r\n<h2>Jak m\u011bn\u00ed situaci pandemie COVIDu-19<\/h2>\r\nJak by mohla s\u00a0t\u011bmito v\u00fdpo\u010dty pohnout sv\u011btov\u00e1 pandemie koronaviru? Dojde k\u00a0dynamick\u00e9mu zhor\u0161en\u00ed epidemiologick\u00e9 situace a k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu oslaben\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00ed kontroly nad situac\u00ed v\u00a0regionech. Aby Moskva udr\u017eela stabiln\u00ed vnitropolitickou situaci, nesm\u00ed zastavit financov\u00e1n\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00edch soci\u00e1ln\u00edch program\u016f, zejm\u00e9na omezit dotace pro regiony z\u00a0feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu. Co\u017e nebude v\u016fbec snadn\u00e9, proto\u017ee po\u010det rusk\u00fdch region\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u010derpaj\u00ed tzv. vyrovn\u00e1vac\u00ed dotaci (hlavn\u00ed druh finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory), je podstatn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 do rozpo\u010dtu p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed. Nav\u00edc je Moskva nucena ji\u017e dnes p\u0159ezkoumat svou migra\u010dn\u00ed politiku: byla do\u010dasn\u011b zru\u0161ena \u00fahrada patentu pro pracovn\u00ed migranty, jich\u017e je podle odhadu The Jamestown Foundation 7 a\u017e 8\u00a0milion\u016f osob, p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ze st\u0159edoasijsk\u00fdch republik. Jde samoz\u0159ejm\u011b jen o\u00a0do\u010dasn\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed hlavn\u00ed probl\u00e9m s\u00a0pracovn\u00edmi migranty, a sice udr\u017eet je na pracovn\u00edm trhu v\u00a0krizov\u00e9 situaci. Miliony ob\u010dan\u016f Uzbekist\u00e1nu, T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1nu a Kyrgyzst\u00e1nu nesp\u011bchaj\u00ed na n\u00e1dra\u017e\u00ed pro j\u00edzdenky, v\u011bd\u00ed toti\u017e, \u017ee je situace doma p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm komplikovan\u00e1, a necht\u011bj\u00ed se st\u00e1t dal\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edt\u011b\u017e\u00ed pro rodiny, kv\u016fli nim\u017e se za prac\u00ed do Ruska vydali. Miliony migrant\u016f budou vy\u017eadovat v\u00fddaje ze st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 snahy jejich pot\u0159eby p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet by mohly zp\u016fsobit nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky, lid\u00e9 toti\u017e pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed j\u00eddlo a st\u0159echu nad hlavou bez ohledu na vl\u00e1dn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny. Nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 tedy ne\u017e znovu s\u00e1hnout do Stabiliza\u010dn\u00edho fondu. Vl\u00e1da bude muset \u0161et\u0159it a sni\u017eovat feder\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fddaje. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se bude vyv\u00edjet tlak na d\u00e1rcovsk\u00e9 subjekty jako je nap\u0159. Tatarst\u00e1n, kter\u00e9 se samy dostaly do nez\u00e1vid\u011bn\u00edhodn\u00e9 situace.\r\n<h2>Jak\u00e9 to bude m\u00edt dopady?<\/h2>\r\n<img class=\"alignleft size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2020\/04\/456-300x243.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"243\" \/>Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti ve Vladikavkaze nab\u00edzej\u00ed bohat\u00fd materi\u00e1l pro simulace. Obl\u00edben\u00fd v\u00a0Severn\u00ed Osetii opern\u00ed p\u011bvec Vadim \u010celdijev vyzval sv\u00e9 krajany k\u00a0sabot\u00e1\u017ei karant\u00e9nn\u00edch omezen\u00ed kv\u016fli \u201evyfabulovan\u00e9mu ohro\u017een\u00ed koronavirem\u201c. V\u00a0pozdn\u00edch ve\u010dern\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch 17.\u00a0dubna policie Vadima \u010celdijeva zatkla u\u00a0n\u011bj doma v\u00a0Petrohrad\u011b a obvinila dle nov\u00e9ho z\u00e1kona o\u00a0\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u201efake news\u201c kolem COVIDu-19. I p\u0159es \u010celdijevovo zat\u010den\u00ed v\u0161ak jeho p\u0159\u00edznivci ve Vladikavkaze jeho v\u00fdzvu uposlechli a 20.\u00a0dubna p\u0159i\u0161li na hlavn\u00ed m\u011bstsk\u00e9 n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed. Vedle \u010celdijevova propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed po\u017eadoval dvoutis\u00edcov\u00fd dav zru\u0161en\u00ed na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed o\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed karant\u00e9n\u011b a odstoupen\u00ed gubern\u00e1tora tohoto regionu Vja\u010deslava Bitarova. Tentokr\u00e1t v\u0161e dopadlo pro Moskvu a m\u00edstn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady \u0161\u0165astn\u011b. I p\u0159es men\u0161\u00ed poty\u010dky s\u00a0polici\u00ed se po\u0159\u00e1dkov\u00fdm slo\u017ek\u00e1m poda\u0159ilo protestuj\u00edc\u00ed rozpr\u00e1\u0161it.\r\n\r\nNicm\u00e9n\u011b i ti nejloaj\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u016f\u010di re\u017eimu ru\u0161t\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee <strong>protest ve Vladikavkazu byl jen prvn\u00edm posl\u00ed\u010dkem<\/strong>. Rusk\u00e9 severokavkazsk\u00e9 republiky jsou toti\u017e ve vznikl\u00e9 situaci obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 zraniteln\u00e9. Blahobyt m\u00edstn\u00edch obyvatel je z\u00e1visl\u00fd na feder\u00e1ln\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch injekc\u00edch, kter\u00e9 jsou dnes problematick\u00e9, a na sf\u00e9\u0159e slu\u017eeb, kter\u00e1 \u017eiv\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu ekonomicky aktivn\u00edch obyvatel. Na Severn\u00edm Kavkaze nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 giganty ani jin\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bvatel\u00e9 do st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli pro sv\u00e9 zam\u011bstnance v\u00a0situaci karant\u00e9ny zajistit jak\u00fdsi soci\u00e1ln\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek. Prodlou\u017een\u00ed karant\u00e9ny tedy nevyhnuteln\u011b vyvol\u00e1 protesty nov\u00e9. Nav\u00edc tu vznik\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m: zda rusk\u00e9 po\u0159\u00e1dkov\u00e9 slo\u017eky udr\u017e\u00ed situaci pod kontrolou. Demografick\u00fd obr\u00e1zek v\u00a0tomto regionu se z\u00e1sadn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed od zbytku Ruska. Je tu vysok\u00e1 porodnost, tud\u00ed\u017e i v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pod\u00edl ml\u00e1de\u017ee v\u00a0populaci, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161enou nebezpe\u010dnost masov\u00fdch protest\u016f. Na to se nabaluje i v\u00e1\u0161nivost a vzn\u011btliv\u00e1 povaha severokavkazsk\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f. Masov\u00e9 protesty Ingu\u0161\u016f, \u010cerkes\u016f, Avar\u016f nebo Kumyk\u016f, o\u00a0\u010ce\u010denc\u00edch ani nemluv\u011b, budou p\u0159ece jen vypadat jinak ne\u017e m\u00edtinky d\u016fchodc\u016f v\u00a0Uljanovsku nebo podnikatel\u016f v\u00a0Jekat\u011brinburgu. Kdy\u017e se hromadn\u011b vzbou\u0159\u00ed Vladikavkaz nebo dokonce Vladikavkaz sou\u010dasn\u011b s\u00a0Magasem, lze tento probl\u00e9m vy\u0159e\u0161it za pomoci m\u00edstn\u00edch policejn\u00edch slo\u017eek a Rusk\u00e9 gardy s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdmi posilami nav\u00edc nap\u0159. z\u00a0\u010ce\u010denska. Jak se v\u0161ak bude situace vyv\u00edjet v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b synchronn\u00edch rebeli\u00ed v\u00a0Severn\u00ed Osetii, Ingu\u0161sku, \u010ce\u010densku, Dagest\u00e1nu, Kabardsko-Balkarsku, Kara\u010dajevsko-\u010cerkesku a Adygejsku? A co kdy\u017e protesty propuknou i v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch regionech, t\u0159eba v\u00a0povol\u017esk\u00e9m Idel-Uralu? Zbudou je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjak\u00e9 jednotky na vysl\u00e1n\u00ed posil? Jak by vypadala interakce t\u0159eba mezi Zolotovem a jeho Ruskou gardou na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a moskevsk\u00fdm starostou na stran\u011b druh\u00e9? Bude prvn\u00ed z\u00a0nich plnit pokyny toho druh\u00e9ho? Ru\u0161t\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i u\u017e o\u00a0tom dnes nahlas pochybuj\u00ed.\r\n<h2>Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje v\u00a0RF mohou b\u00fdt r\u016fzn\u00e9, nasimulovat je proto dnes nen\u00ed v\u016fbec snadn\u00e9. Centrum Prometheus nast\u00ednilo ty hlavn\u00ed a nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00a0nich<\/h2>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><strong>A)<\/strong> Oslaben\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy. Pos\u00edlen\u00ed role region\u016f. N\u00e1r\u016fst vlivu m\u00edstn\u00edch politick\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f: region\u00e1ln\u00edch elit, ob\u010dansk\u00fdch hnut\u00ed, aktivizace regionalistick\u00fdch a nacionalistick\u00fdch proud\u016f, pos\u00edlen\u00ed \u201ehlasu ulice\u201c. Oslaben\u00ed Ruska na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ar\u00e9n\u011b, soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00ed na vnitropolitick\u00fdch a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch probl\u00e9mech. V\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch regionech pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dost brzy vznikne situace, kdy region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dky budou muset br\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ohled na pouli\u010dn\u00ed protesty ne\u017e na feder\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>B) <\/strong>Masov\u00e9 nepokoje a vzpoury kv\u016fli prudk\u00e9mu zhor\u0161en\u00ed socioekonomick\u00e9 situace v\u00a0RF. Ztr\u00e1ta kontroly nad cel\u00fdmi regiony. Vznik alternativn\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch center jak na feder\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni, tak v\u00a0regionech. Dekoordinace bloku ozbrojen\u00fdch sbor\u016f. Mo\u017en\u00e1 vlna vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed samostatnost\u00ed. Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 bude doprov\u00e1zet n\u00e1siln\u00e1 konfrontace jak uvnit\u0159 subjekt\u016f federace (nap\u0159. boj mezi nacionalisty a salafisty v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch severokavkazsk\u00fdch republik\u00e1ch), tak mezi subjekty a feder\u00e1ln\u00edmi \u00fa\u0159ady, dokonce i mezi subjekty navz\u00e1jem.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>C) <\/strong>P\u0159echod Moskvy k\u00a0agresivn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice s\u00a0c\u00edlem vylep\u0161it vlastn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 postaven\u00ed. Nap\u0159. rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii (ve spojenectv\u00ed s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem, jeho\u017e t\u011b\u017ea\u0159sk\u00e9 odv\u011btv\u00ed je tak \u010di tak u\u017e dlouho v\u00a0trosk\u00e1ch kv\u016fli z\u00e1padn\u00edm sankc\u00edm), r\u016fzn\u00e9 formy agrese (s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm uplatn\u011bn\u00edm nejen diplomatick\u00e9ho tlaku, ale i vojenskopolitick\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f) proti \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Kazachst\u00e1nu. Tyto kroky by m\u011bly oslabit konkurenty v\u00a0t\u011b\u017eb\u011b ropy a p\u0159isp\u011bt k\u00a0r\u016fstu cen ropy, t\u00edm p\u00e1dem i ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 situace v\u00a0RF.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>D) <\/strong>N\u00e1hl\u00e1 normalizace epidemiologick\u00e9 situace. Rychl\u00e9 obnoven\u00ed kontroly feder\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f nad regiony. Zkrocen\u00ed t\u011bch sil, kter\u00e9 uk\u00e1zaly neloajalitu v\u016f\u010di Putinovi v\u00a0dob\u011b krize, p\u0159ehozen\u00ed odpov\u011bdnosti za selh\u00e1n\u00ed a chyby na vykonavatele.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>E) <\/strong>Nahrazen\u00ed Putina v\u00a0d\u016fsledku ztr\u00e1ty kontroly nad situac\u00ed: sesazen\u00ed vlastn\u00edm okol\u00edm nebo dobrovoln\u00fd odchod (nap\u0159. ze zdravotn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f).<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<strong>Kter\u00fdkoli z\u00a0t\u011bchto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f nevylu\u010duje celou \u0159adu prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 mohou situaci ovlivnit, nap\u0159. intervenci USA, kter\u00e9 budou cht\u00edt Ruskou federaci zachovat jako stabiliza\u010dn\u00ed prvek v\u00a0Eurasii a prost\u0159edek k\u00a0brzd\u011bn\u00ed \u010cLR. Washington m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt pocit, \u017ee bude lep\u0161\u00ed \u201ed\u00e1t Rusku um\u011bl\u00e9 d\u00fdch\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, by\u0165 dokonce i na vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1klady, ne\u017e se pou\u0161t\u011bt do nov\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch konflikt\u016f v\u00a0\u00famyslu zabr\u00e1nit \u201enov\u00e9 S\u00fdrii\u201c.<\/strong>\r\n\r\nNikam nemiz\u00ed ani mo\u017enost aktivizace Moskvy v\u00a0rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce: od zosnov\u00e1n\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch ekologick\u00fdch a technogenn\u00edch katastrof p\u0159es podn\u011bcov\u00e1n\u00ed a financov\u00e1n\u00ed protivl\u00e1dn\u00edch protest\u016f a\u017e k\u00a0organizaci teroristick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f a sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9m vnitrozem\u00ed.\r\n<h2>Nad \u010d\u00edm by se tedy m\u011bla ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zamyslet u\u017e dnes?<\/h2>\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>Jak m\u00e1 postupovat p\u0159i ka\u017ed\u00e9m z\u00a0popsan\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Je t\u0159eba zpracovat opera\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny pro ka\u017ed\u00fd ze sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f: v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b A se ud\u011bl\u00e1 B.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Vyjasnit si linii chov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vzniku nov\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch center soub\u011b\u017en\u00fdch s\u00a0t\u011bmi ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi, tzn. jak bude Ukrajina reagovat na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 snahy t\u011bchto nov\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch center nav\u00e1zat vztahy s\u00a0Kyjevem.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Jak bude postupovat Ukrajina v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b aktivizace odst\u0159ediv\u00fdch hnut\u00ed v\u00a0RF, autonomizace nebo dokonce vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti jednotliv\u00fdch region\u016f.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Je nutno se p\u0159ipravit na mo\u017en\u00e9 nepokoje nebo dokonce ozbrojen\u00e9 st\u0159ety v\u00a0evropsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti RF (v\u010detn\u011b Severn\u00edho Kavkazu) a na jejich d\u016fsledky v\u00a0podob\u011b humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krize a vzniku velk\u00fdch proud\u016f uprchl\u00edk\u016f.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<strong>Situace se m\u016f\u017ee vyv\u00edjet velmi dynamicky a p\u0159ech\u00e1zet od jednoho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e k\u00a0druh\u00e9mu<\/strong>. T\u0159eba aktivizace odst\u0159ediv\u00fdch hnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee skon\u010dit n\u00e1hlou normalizac\u00ed epidemiologick\u00e9 situace, zm\u011bnou situace na trhu s\u00a0energetick\u00fdmi zdroji (zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky n\u00e1r\u016fstu spot\u0159eby a obnoven\u00ed popt\u00e1vky) a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm obnoven\u00edm postaven\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f. Tento v\u00fdvoj by mohl zp\u016fsobit z\u00e1plavu politick\u00fdch emigrant\u016f proud\u00edc\u00edch na Ukrajinu: jak rusk\u00fdch opozi\u010dn\u00edk\u016f, tak z\u00e1stupc\u016f n\u00e1rodnostn\u00edch a regionalistick\u00fdch hnut\u00ed. Jak bude v\u00a0t\u00e9to situaci postupovat Ukrajina? Jak bude vypadat na\u0161e politika v\u016f\u010di politick\u00fdm migrant\u016fm, zejm\u00e9na jde-li o\u00a0skupiny zcela odli\u0161n\u00e9 a vz\u00e1jemn\u011b znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9?\r\n\r\nSt\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da se m\u016f\u017ee samoz\u0159ejm\u011b rozhodnout pro stanovisko, kter\u00e9 je pro ni nejpohodln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: \u201e<em>N\u011bjak to snad dopadne, proto\u017ee se je\u0161t\u011b nikdy nestalo, \u017ee by to n\u011bjak nedopadlo<\/em>\u201c. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je v\u0161ak pro Ukrajinu nejhor\u0161\u00ed: st\u00e1t pod balkonem v\u011b\u017e\u00e1ku v\u00a0havarijn\u00edm stavu a sledovat jeho z\u0159\u00edcen\u00ed s\u00a0postojem vzd\u00e1len\u00e9ho div\u00e1ka. M\u00e1me p\u0159ece \u201epr\u00e1vo na omyl\u201c?\r\n\r\n<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pavlo.podobed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pavlo Podobjed<\/a>, analytik <a href=\"https:\/\/prometheus.ngo\/%d1%87%d0%b8-%d0%b7%d0%bc%d1%96%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82%d1%8c-%d0%ba%d0%be%d1%80%d0%be%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%b2%d1%96%d1%80%d1%83%d1%81-%d0%bf%d0%be%d0%bb%d1%96%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%87%d0%bd%d1%83-%d0%ba%d0%b0%d1%80\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">V\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho centra Prometheus<\/a><\/em>\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\n<h2>\u010ct\u011bte a sd\u00edlejte tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky od InformNapalmu<\/h2>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/dobrovolnici-zverejnili-rozsahlou-interaktivni-databazi-ruske-agrese\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dobrovoln\u00edci zve\u0159ejnili rozs\u00e1hlou interaktivn\u00ed datab\u00e1zi rusk\u00e9 agrese<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/dobrovolnici-nasbirali-dukazy-ucasti-32-vojenskych-jednotek-ozbrojenych-sil-rf-na-zaboru-krymu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dobrovoln\u00edci nasb\u00edrali d\u016fkazy \u00fa\u010dasti 32\u00a0vojensk\u00fdch jednotek Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil RF na z\u00e1boru Krymu<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/krym-za-zavisoyu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ve\u0159ejnosti poprv\u00e9 zp\u0159\u00edstupn\u011bna kniha \u201eKrym za oponou. Pr\u016fvodce okupa\u010dn\u00ed z\u00f3nou\u201c<\/a> <\/strong><em>(ukrajinsky)<\/em><\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/experti-shrnuli-mezinarodni-uspech-knihy-donbas-v-plamenech-infografika\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Experti shrnuli mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bch knihy Donbas v\u00a0plamenech. Infografika<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignleft \" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2015\/12\/InformNapalm_logo_05.png\" width=\"114\" height=\"50\" \/>\u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nebo p\u0159evzet\u00ed s\u00a0odkazem na zdroj je v\u00edt\u00e1no! (Creative Commons\u00a0\u2014 Attribution\u00a04.0 International\u00a0\u2014 CC BY\u00a04.0). Facebookov\u00e1 str\u00e1nka komunity InformNaplam v\u00a0\u010de\u0161tin\u011b: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/informnapalmcesko\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">InformNapalm \u010cesko<\/a>.\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\nP\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a>","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/78"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8241"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8241\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8243,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8241\/revisions\/8243"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}