{"id":8455,"date":"2020-06-22T21:09:45","date_gmt":"2020-06-22T21:09:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=8455"},"modified":"2020-06-22T21:09:45","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T21:09:45","slug":"nejvetsi-nocni-mura-putina-a-lukasenka-je-mozny-restart-beloruske-politiky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/nejvetsi-nocni-mura-putina-a-lukasenka-je-mozny-restart-beloruske-politiky\/","title":{"rendered":"Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra Putina a Luka\u0161enka: je mo\u017en\u00fd restart b\u011blorusk\u00e9 politiky?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampa\u0148 v\u00a0B\u011blorusku ji\u017e \u0159ada koment\u00e1tor\u016f stihla ozna\u010dit za bezprecedentn\u00ed. Na prvn\u00ed pohled to tak skute\u010dn\u011b vypad\u00e1: Alexandr Luka\u0161enko nech\u00e1v\u00e1 zadr\u017eet sv\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 rivaly, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed medializaci z\u00edskalo zat\u010den\u00ed exp\u0159edsedy p\u0159edstavenstva banky B\u011blhazprambank Viktara Babaryky a blogera Sjarheje Cichano\u016dsk\u00e9ho, za n\u011bj\u017e nakonec musela kandidovat jeho man\u017eelka.<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u011blorusov\u00e9 dr\u017e\u00ed pikety na protest proti zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00edk\u016f a stoj\u00ed mnohahodinov\u00e9 fronty, aby mohli podepsat podpisov\u00e9 listy na podporu alternativn\u00edch kandid\u00e1t\u016f. Tyto d\u016fkazy, \u017ee velk\u00fd po\u010det lid\u00ed v\u00a0zem\u00ed m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem na mocensk\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch, skute\u010dn\u011b ukazuj\u00ed nov\u00e9 n\u00e1lady ve spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak trochu zamysl\u00edme, vybav\u00edme si, \u017ee teoretick\u00e9 alternativy Luka\u0161enkovi tu byly prakticky v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00fdch minul\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Bylo tomu tak t\u0159eba ve volb\u00e1ch z\u00a0roku 2005, kdy opozice jako sv\u00e9ho jedin\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta navrhla Aljaksandra Milinkevi\u010de, kter\u00fd byl dokonce pozv\u00e1n, aby vystoupil na p\u016fd\u011b Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu jako l\u00eddr nov\u00e9ho B\u011bloruska. Podobn\u00e9 to bylo i ve volb\u00e1ch v\u00a0roce 2010, kdy kandidovali zejm\u00e9na tak zn\u00e1m\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed politici jako Uladzimir Njakljaje\u016d, Andrej Sannika\u016d nebo Mikalaj Statkevi\u010d. Po volb\u00e1ch se konaly sv\u00fdm rozsahem bezprecedentn\u00ed protesty proti fal\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed volebn\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f, kter\u00e9 skon\u010dily rozpr\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm protestuj\u00edc\u00edch a zadr\u017een\u00edm \u0159ady prezidentsk\u00fdch kandid\u00e1t\u016f. Je tu jen ot\u00e1zka, zda m\u016f\u017eeme pova\u017eovat \u00fadajn\u00e9 volby, kter\u00e9 se v\u00a0B\u011blorusku konaly po roce 1994, v\u016fbec za volby.<\/p>\n

Tato ot\u00e1zka m\u00e1 jednoduchou odpov\u011b\u010f: \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 volby v\u00a0B\u011blorusku, stejn\u011b ov\u0161em jako v\u00a0sousedn\u00edm Rusku po roce 1996, se nekonaly. \u0160lo o\u00a0plebiscitn\u011b pojat\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed, kdy ob\u010dan\u00e9 m\u011bli jen posv\u011btit prodlou\u017een\u00ed \u00fa\u0159adov\u00e1n\u00ed permanentn\u00ed hlavy st\u00e1tu na dal\u0161\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed. Opozi\u010dn\u00ed kandid\u00e1ty do prezidentsk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu u\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9ho z\u00a0t\u011bchto plebiscit\u016f vn\u00edmal dikt\u00e1tor jako staf\u00e1\u017e, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla jen zd\u016fraznit jeho legitimitu. Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy opozice d\u00e1vala najevo, \u017ee se ji\u017e nechce spokojit s\u00a0rol\u00ed staf\u00e1\u017ee a chce usilovat o\u00a0skute\u010dn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 aktivity, o\u00a0p\u0159evzet\u00ed moci nemluv\u011b, re\u017eim hned uvalil na oponenty represe a nep\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bl ani iluzi t\u00e9to mo\u017enosti.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed \u010demu se divit. Luka\u0161enko toti\u017e nen\u00ed oby\u010dejn\u00fdm prezidentem, kter\u00fd usiluje o\u00a0setrv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0\u010dele st\u00e1tu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm voleb. Je klasick\u00fdm uzurp\u00e1torem, kter\u00fd rozehnal parlament, nahradil ho poslu\u0161n\u00fdm z\u00e1konod\u00e1rn\u00fdm org\u00e1nem a zakonzervoval ve\u0161ker\u00e9 politick\u00e9 procesy za pomoci… samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 demokracie, tak obl\u00edben\u00e9 u\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010desk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch subjekt\u016f a jejich podporovatel\u016f.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b za pomoci referenda toti\u017e Luka\u0161enko doc\u00edlil, \u017ee se B\u011blorusov\u00e9 vzdali vlastn\u00edch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch symbol\u016f, nechal pov\u00fd\u0161it ru\u0161tinu na \u00fa\u0159edn\u00ed jazyk, uz\u00e1konit postaven\u00ed sv\u00e9 zem\u011b jako rusk\u00e9ho satelitu, z\u00edskal pravomoc rozpou\u0161t\u011bt parlament, nechal p\u0159esunout Den nez\u00e1vislosti na v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed osvobozen\u00ed Minsku za Druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, schv\u00e1lit dikt\u00e1torskou \u00dastavu, odm\u00edtnout prodej p\u016fdy a zachovat trest smrti, zru\u0161it volbu starost\u016f a umo\u017enit sv\u00e9 opakovan\u00e9 znovuzvolen\u00ed donekone\u010dna. Je pravda, \u017ee mu toto v\u0161e odhlasoval b\u011blorusk\u00fd lid.<\/p>\n

Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee \u201eodhlasoval\u201c stejn\u011b, jak \u201evol\u00ed\u201c v\u00a0prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch: jak \u0159\u00edkal soudruh Stalin, nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, jak se hlasuje, ale jak se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b plat\u00ed, \u017ee svou vl\u00e1du nad zemi, kter\u00e1 se zasekla v\u00a0sov\u011btsk\u00e9 minulosti, op\u00edr\u00e1 Luka\u0161enko nejen o\u00a0represe a propagandu, ale tak\u00e9 o\u00a0tento mand\u00e1t vze\u0161l\u00fd z\u00a0\u201ep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 demokracie\u201c. Kdy\u017e tedy mluv\u00edme o\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u00fasp\u011bch Zelensk\u00e9ho a strany Slu\u017eebn\u00edk lidu je prvn\u00edm krokem k\u00a0\u201eluka\u0161enkizaci\u201c a degradaci Ukrajiny, ned\u011bl\u00e1me si legraci. Jedin\u00e1 nad\u011bje je, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9mu Luka\u0161enkovi k\u00a0tomu ban\u00e1ln\u011b nesta\u010d\u00ed prost\u0159edky.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b z\u00a0hlediska permanentn\u00ed nab\u00eddky alternativ lze v\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed volebn\u00ed kampani spat\u0159ovat sp\u00ed\u0161e znepokojuj\u00edc\u00ed trendy, kter\u00e9 nasv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed jist\u00fdm proces\u016fm, mo\u017en\u00e1 ji\u017e nezvratn\u00fdm. V\u00a0minulosti vedla konfronta\u010dn\u00ed linie v\u017edy mezi sov\u011btsk\u00fdm B\u011bloruskem, jeho\u017e symbolem byl Luka\u0161enko, a B\u011bloruskem opozi\u010dn\u00edm, demokratick\u00fdm a evropsk\u00fdm, kter\u00e9 prosazovali opozi\u010dn\u00ed kandid\u00e1ti. Naproti tomu cel\u00e1 dne\u0161n\u00ed kampa\u0148 jako by zapadala do r\u00e1mce st\u00e1tu vybudovan\u00e9ho Luka\u0161enkem. Za prv\u00e9 jde o\u00a0kampa\u0148 nestranickou, jej\u00edmi hlavn\u00edmi postavami jsou jen lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu. Za druh\u00e9 jej\u00edm hlavn\u00edm motem je \u00fanava z\u00a0Luka\u0161enka. Chyb\u00ed v\u0161ak jasn\u00e1 p\u0159edstava, co se bude d\u00edt v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee opozice dos\u00e1hne sv\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem B\u011bloruska toti\u017e v\u016fbec nen\u00ed Luka\u0161enko. Jeho hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem je Rusko. Luka\u0161enko je jen d\u00edl\u010d\u00edm probl\u00e9mem odvozen\u00fdm od toho hlavn\u00edho. V\u00a0roce 1994 B\u011blorusov\u00e9 v\u00a0prvn\u00edch a dosud posledn\u00edch skute\u010dn\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch rozhodovali mezi dv\u011bma hlavn\u00edmi kandid\u00e1ty, z\u00a0nich\u017e ka\u017ed\u00fd cht\u011bl odevzdat zemi Moskv\u011b. Odtehdy byli politikov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed tvrdili, \u017ee jejich zem\u011b m\u00e1 jinou cestu, ve vlastn\u00ed zemi margin\u00e1ly, dokonce i v\u00a0tehdy, kdy se \u00fa\u010dastnili voleb.<\/p>\n

Dnes tedy Viktar Babaryka, jeho\u017e vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako m\u00e1lem hlavn\u00ed alternativu k\u00a0Luka\u0161enkovi jak s\u00e1m Luka\u0161enko, tak mnoho B\u011blorus\u016f, vede svou volebn\u00ed kampa\u0148 tak\u0159ka jako n\u011bkdo, kdo se uch\u00e1z\u00ed o\u00a0\u00fa\u0159ad hlavy n\u011bkter\u00e9ho subjektu Rusk\u00e9 federace. V\u00a0p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampani zazn\u00edv\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00e9ma \u00fanavy ze \u201e\u0161v\u00e1ba\u201c, nikoli v\u0161ak t\u00e9ma \u010dlenstv\u00ed zem\u011b v\u00a0Eurasijsk\u00e9m ekonomick\u00e9m svazu, Organizaci smlouvy o\u00a0kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti nebo t\u00e9ma p\u0159\u00edtomnosti rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zku\u0161enosti z\u00a0Arm\u00e9nie, kde povst\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b vedlo ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu, v\u0161ak uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee z\u00e1vislost na Rusku z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 l\u00e9\u010dkou, z\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e prakticky nen\u00ed \u00faniku. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato z\u00e1vislost, nikoli osoba hlavy st\u00e1tu, je zdrojem nesvobody, korupce, chudoby a chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00edch skute\u010dn\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek. Ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u0159emo\u017eitel diktatury, z\u016fstane-li z\u00e1visl\u00fd na Rusku, se tedy mus\u00ed bu\u010f s\u00e1m prom\u011bnit v\u00a0draka, nebo p\u0159ij\u00edt o\u00a0moc.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou ov\u0161em z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, zda m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0B\u011blorusku doj\u00edt ke stejn\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji jako v\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii. V\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii v\u0161ak za celou dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00ed samostatnosti existovalo \u017eiv\u00e9 politick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed, stranick\u00e9 aktivity, neust\u00e1l\u00e1 opozi\u010dn\u00ed povst\u00e1n\u00ed a m\u00edtinky. To nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak je, \u017ee i p\u0159es z\u00e1vislost na Rusku je v\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii od po\u010d\u00e1tku siln\u00e1 idea n\u00e1rodn\u00ed svornosti a st\u00e1tu jako \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi sousedy. V\u00a0B\u011blorusku nic takov\u00e9ho nen\u00ed a nikdy nebylo. Srovn\u00e1vat situace je tedy t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm je jasn\u00e1 jedin\u00e1 v\u011bc: \u201evolby\u201c Luka\u0161enko v\u00edt\u011bzoslavn\u011b vyhraje, proto\u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u201evolby\u201c vlastn\u011b neprob\u011bhnou. Ustoj\u00ed-li povolebn\u00ed situaci, bude ve sv\u00e9m nekone\u010dn\u00e9m a nesmysln\u00e9m vl\u00e1dnut\u00ed pokra\u010dovat. Pokud ji neustoj\u00ed, pak za\u010dne \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh s\u00a0nejist\u00fdm rozuzlen\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Nejist\u00fdm proto, \u017ee nesm\u00edme opom\u00edjet rusk\u00fd z\u00e1jem. Kreml v\u016fbec nepot\u0159ebuje, aby vyhr\u00e1l Luka\u0161enko nebo Babaryka. Pro Kreml je B\u011blorusko stejn\u011b jako Ukrajina jen provizorn\u00edm st\u00e1tem, do\u010dasn\u011b od\u0161t\u011bpen\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm. V\u00a0Moskv\u011b se jen \u010dek\u00e1, a\u017e vl\u00e1dce tohoto \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159istoup\u00ed na jeho inkorporaci do Ruska. Jak sv\u00e9ho \u010dasu jasn\u011b \u0159ekl Luka\u0161enkovi Putin, jako jednotliv\u00e9 oblasti.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0tomto smyslu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro Kreml v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jak oslaben\u00ed Luka\u0161enkova postaven\u00ed, aby byl svoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, tak tot\u00e1ln\u00ed destabilizace zem\u011b\u00a0\u2013 v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bude snaz\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddnout j\u00ed \u201epomoc\u201c. V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed prorusk\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta by bylo tak\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, proto\u017ee by tento kandid\u00e1t podepsal \u201epoctivou\u201c smlouvu s\u00a0Ruskem a dos\u00e1hl vytou\u017een\u00e9 integrace, kterou dikt\u00e1tor brzdil \u201enavzdory v\u016fli bratrsk\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f\u201c.<\/p>\n

Co by bylo pro Rusko skute\u010dn\u011b nev\u00fdhodn\u00e9, je tot\u00e1ln\u00ed zhroucen\u00ed re\u017eimu v\u00a0d\u016fsledku n\u00e1rodn\u00edho povst\u00e1n\u00ed, Luka\u0161enk\u016fv \u00fat\u011bk a \u201erestart\u201c b\u011blorusk\u00e9 politiky. V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by toti\u017e mohla b\u00fdt skute\u010dn\u011b nastolena \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e1 agenda. P\u0159i volebn\u00ed kampani by kandid\u00e1ti ji\u017e nemluvili o\u00a0Luka\u0161enkovi, ale o\u00a0Rusku a osvobozen\u00ed nikoli od dikt\u00e1tora, ale od drav\u00e9 velmoci, kter\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed zni\u010dit jak b\u011blorusk\u00fd st\u00e1t, tak b\u011bloruskou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed identitu. Pak vyjde najevo, \u017ee cel\u00e9 ono \u201ebratrstv\u00ed\u201c bylo ve skute\u010dnosti prachoby\u010dejn\u00fdm podru\u010d\u00edm, vnucov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159\u00ed\u017eivnictv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 znemo\u017e\u0148ovalo rozvoj st\u00e1tu, rozkr\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm B\u011bloruska\u00a0\u2013 jak skrze Luka\u0161enka, kter\u00fd \u0159\u00eddil jakousi obdobu okupa\u010dn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy, tak skrze Babaryku, kter\u00fd \u0159\u00eddil hlavn\u00ed b\u011bloruskou banku Gazpromu. I kdy\u017e mluvit o\u00a0p\u0159edpokladech pro tento v\u00fdvoj je zat\u00edm p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9, pr\u00e1v\u011b ten je Luka\u0161enkovou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016frou v\u00a0kontextu dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje situace v\u00a0B\u011blorusku.<\/p>\n

A stejn\u00e1 v\u011bc je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016frou tak\u00e9 pro Putina.<\/p>\n

\n

Autor: Vitalij Portnykov
\nZdroj: Bykvu.com<\/a>, 22.\u00a06.\u00a02020
\nP\u0159eklad: Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampa\u0148 v\u00a0B\u011blorusku ji\u017e \u0159ada koment\u00e1tor\u016f stihla ozna\u010dit za bezprecedentn\u00ed. Na prvn\u00ed pohled to tak skute\u010dn\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":78,"featured_media":8456,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,523,1079,3235,516,993],"tags":[198,419,58],"class_list":["post-8455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktuality","category-analytics","category-belorusko","category-nazor","category-all-news","category-politika","tag-belorusko","tag-lukasenko","tag-putin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra Putina a Luka\u0161enka: je mo\u017en\u00fd restart b\u011blorusk\u00e9 politiky? - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/nejvetsi-nocni-mura-putina-a-lukasenka-je-mozny-restart-beloruske-politiky\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra Putina a Luka\u0161enka: je mo\u017en\u00fd restart b\u011blorusk\u00e9 politiky? - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampa\u0148 v\u00a0B\u011blorusku ji\u017e \u0159ada koment\u00e1tor\u016f stihla ozna\u010dit za bezprecedentn\u00ed. 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Na prvn\u00ed pohled to tak skute\u010dn\u011b vypad\u00e1: Alexandr Luka\u0161enko nech\u00e1v\u00e1 zadr\u017eet sv\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 rivaly, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed medializaci z\u00edskalo zat\u010den\u00ed exp\u0159edsedy p\u0159edstavenstva banky B\u011blhazprambank Viktara Babaryky a blogera Sjarheje Cichano\u016dsk\u00e9ho, za n\u011bj\u017e nakonec musela kandidovat jeho man\u017eelka.<\/strong><!--more-->\r\n\r\nB\u011blorusov\u00e9 dr\u017e\u00ed pikety na protest proti zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00edk\u016f a stoj\u00ed mnohahodinov\u00e9 fronty, aby mohli podepsat podpisov\u00e9 listy na podporu alternativn\u00edch kandid\u00e1t\u016f. Tyto d\u016fkazy, \u017ee velk\u00fd po\u010det lid\u00ed v\u00a0zem\u00ed m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem na mocensk\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch, skute\u010dn\u011b ukazuj\u00ed nov\u00e9 n\u00e1lady ve spole\u010dnosti.\r\n\r\nKdy\u017e se v\u0161ak trochu zamysl\u00edme, vybav\u00edme si, \u017ee teoretick\u00e9 alternativy Luka\u0161enkovi tu byly prakticky v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00fdch minul\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch.\r\n\r\nBylo tomu tak t\u0159eba ve volb\u00e1ch z\u00a0roku 2005, kdy opozice jako sv\u00e9ho jedin\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta navrhla Aljaksandra Milinkevi\u010de, kter\u00fd byl dokonce pozv\u00e1n, aby vystoupil na p\u016fd\u011b Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu jako l\u00eddr nov\u00e9ho B\u011bloruska. Podobn\u00e9 to bylo i ve volb\u00e1ch v\u00a0roce 2010, kdy kandidovali zejm\u00e9na tak zn\u00e1m\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed politici jako Uladzimir Njakljaje\u016d, Andrej Sannika\u016d nebo Mikalaj Statkevi\u010d. Po volb\u00e1ch se konaly sv\u00fdm rozsahem bezprecedentn\u00ed protesty proti fal\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed volebn\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f, kter\u00e9 skon\u010dily rozpr\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm protestuj\u00edc\u00edch a zadr\u017een\u00edm \u0159ady prezidentsk\u00fdch kandid\u00e1t\u016f. Je tu jen ot\u00e1zka, zda m\u016f\u017eeme pova\u017eovat \u00fadajn\u00e9 volby, kter\u00e9 se v\u00a0B\u011blorusku konaly po roce 1994, v\u016fbec za volby.\r\n\r\nTato ot\u00e1zka m\u00e1 jednoduchou odpov\u011b\u010f: \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 volby v\u00a0B\u011blorusku, stejn\u011b ov\u0161em jako v\u00a0sousedn\u00edm Rusku po roce 1996, se nekonaly. \u0160lo o\u00a0plebiscitn\u011b pojat\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed, kdy ob\u010dan\u00e9 m\u011bli jen posv\u011btit prodlou\u017een\u00ed \u00fa\u0159adov\u00e1n\u00ed permanentn\u00ed hlavy st\u00e1tu na dal\u0161\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed. Opozi\u010dn\u00ed kandid\u00e1ty do prezidentsk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu u\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9ho z\u00a0t\u011bchto plebiscit\u016f vn\u00edmal dikt\u00e1tor jako staf\u00e1\u017e, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla jen zd\u016fraznit jeho legitimitu. Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy opozice d\u00e1vala najevo, \u017ee se ji\u017e nechce spokojit s\u00a0rol\u00ed staf\u00e1\u017ee a chce usilovat o\u00a0skute\u010dn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 aktivity, o\u00a0p\u0159evzet\u00ed moci nemluv\u011b, re\u017eim hned uvalil na oponenty represe a nep\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bl ani iluzi t\u00e9to mo\u017enosti.\r\n\r\nNen\u00ed \u010demu se divit. Luka\u0161enko toti\u017e nen\u00ed oby\u010dejn\u00fdm prezidentem, kter\u00fd usiluje o\u00a0setrv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0\u010dele st\u00e1tu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm voleb. Je klasick\u00fdm uzurp\u00e1torem, kter\u00fd rozehnal parlament, nahradil ho poslu\u0161n\u00fdm z\u00e1konod\u00e1rn\u00fdm org\u00e1nem a zakonzervoval ve\u0161ker\u00e9 politick\u00e9 procesy za pomoci... samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 demokracie, tak obl\u00edben\u00e9 u\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010desk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch subjekt\u016f a jejich podporovatel\u016f.\r\n\r\nPr\u00e1v\u011b za pomoci referenda toti\u017e Luka\u0161enko doc\u00edlil, \u017ee se B\u011blorusov\u00e9 vzdali vlastn\u00edch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch symbol\u016f, nechal pov\u00fd\u0161it ru\u0161tinu na \u00fa\u0159edn\u00ed jazyk, uz\u00e1konit postaven\u00ed sv\u00e9 zem\u011b jako rusk\u00e9ho satelitu, z\u00edskal pravomoc rozpou\u0161t\u011bt parlament, nechal p\u0159esunout Den nez\u00e1vislosti na v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed osvobozen\u00ed Minsku za Druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, schv\u00e1lit dikt\u00e1torskou \u00dastavu, odm\u00edtnout prodej p\u016fdy a zachovat trest smrti, zru\u0161it volbu starost\u016f a umo\u017enit sv\u00e9 opakovan\u00e9 znovuzvolen\u00ed donekone\u010dna. Je pravda, \u017ee mu toto v\u0161e odhlasoval b\u011blorusk\u00fd lid.\r\n\r\nJe jasn\u00e9, \u017ee \u201eodhlasoval\u201c stejn\u011b, jak \u201evol\u00ed\u201c v\u00a0prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch: jak \u0159\u00edkal soudruh Stalin, nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, jak se hlasuje, ale jak se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b plat\u00ed, \u017ee svou vl\u00e1du nad zemi, kter\u00e1 se zasekla v\u00a0sov\u011btsk\u00e9 minulosti, op\u00edr\u00e1 Luka\u0161enko nejen o\u00a0represe a propagandu, ale tak\u00e9 o\u00a0tento mand\u00e1t vze\u0161l\u00fd z\u00a0\u201ep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 demokracie\u201c. Kdy\u017e tedy mluv\u00edme o\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u00fasp\u011bch Zelensk\u00e9ho a strany Slu\u017eebn\u00edk lidu je prvn\u00edm krokem k\u00a0\u201eluka\u0161enkizaci\u201c a degradaci Ukrajiny, ned\u011bl\u00e1me si legraci. Jedin\u00e1 nad\u011bje je, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9mu Luka\u0161enkovi k\u00a0tomu ban\u00e1ln\u011b nesta\u010d\u00ed prost\u0159edky.\r\n\r\nPr\u00e1v\u011b z\u00a0hlediska permanentn\u00ed nab\u00eddky alternativ lze v\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed volebn\u00ed kampani spat\u0159ovat sp\u00ed\u0161e znepokojuj\u00edc\u00ed trendy, kter\u00e9 nasv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed jist\u00fdm proces\u016fm, mo\u017en\u00e1 ji\u017e nezvratn\u00fdm. V\u00a0minulosti vedla konfronta\u010dn\u00ed linie v\u017edy mezi sov\u011btsk\u00fdm B\u011bloruskem, jeho\u017e symbolem byl Luka\u0161enko, a B\u011bloruskem opozi\u010dn\u00edm, demokratick\u00fdm a evropsk\u00fdm, kter\u00e9 prosazovali opozi\u010dn\u00ed kandid\u00e1ti. Naproti tomu cel\u00e1 dne\u0161n\u00ed kampa\u0148 jako by zapadala do r\u00e1mce st\u00e1tu vybudovan\u00e9ho Luka\u0161enkem. Za prv\u00e9 jde o\u00a0kampa\u0148 nestranickou, jej\u00edmi hlavn\u00edmi postavami jsou jen lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu. Za druh\u00e9 jej\u00edm hlavn\u00edm motem je \u00fanava z\u00a0Luka\u0161enka. Chyb\u00ed v\u0161ak jasn\u00e1 p\u0159edstava, co se bude d\u00edt v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee opozice dos\u00e1hne sv\u00e9ho.\r\n\r\nHlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem B\u011bloruska toti\u017e v\u016fbec nen\u00ed Luka\u0161enko. Jeho hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem je Rusko. Luka\u0161enko je jen d\u00edl\u010d\u00edm probl\u00e9mem odvozen\u00fdm od toho hlavn\u00edho. V\u00a0roce 1994 B\u011blorusov\u00e9 v\u00a0prvn\u00edch a dosud posledn\u00edch skute\u010dn\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch rozhodovali mezi dv\u011bma hlavn\u00edmi kandid\u00e1ty, z\u00a0nich\u017e ka\u017ed\u00fd cht\u011bl odevzdat zemi Moskv\u011b. Odtehdy byli politikov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed tvrdili, \u017ee jejich zem\u011b m\u00e1 jinou cestu, ve vlastn\u00ed zemi margin\u00e1ly, dokonce i v\u00a0tehdy, kdy se \u00fa\u010dastnili voleb.\r\n\r\nDnes tedy Viktar Babaryka, jeho\u017e vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako m\u00e1lem hlavn\u00ed alternativu k\u00a0Luka\u0161enkovi jak s\u00e1m Luka\u0161enko, tak mnoho B\u011blorus\u016f, vede svou volebn\u00ed kampa\u0148 tak\u0159ka jako n\u011bkdo, kdo se uch\u00e1z\u00ed o\u00a0\u00fa\u0159ad hlavy n\u011bkter\u00e9ho subjektu Rusk\u00e9 federace. V\u00a0p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampani zazn\u00edv\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00e9ma \u00fanavy ze \u201e\u0161v\u00e1ba\u201c, nikoli v\u0161ak t\u00e9ma \u010dlenstv\u00ed zem\u011b v\u00a0Eurasijsk\u00e9m ekonomick\u00e9m svazu, Organizaci smlouvy o\u00a0kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti nebo t\u00e9ma p\u0159\u00edtomnosti rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.\r\n\r\nZku\u0161enosti z\u00a0Arm\u00e9nie, kde povst\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b vedlo ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu, v\u0161ak uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee z\u00e1vislost na Rusku z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 l\u00e9\u010dkou, z\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e prakticky nen\u00ed \u00faniku. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato z\u00e1vislost, nikoli osoba hlavy st\u00e1tu, je zdrojem nesvobody, korupce, chudoby a chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00edch skute\u010dn\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek. Ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u0159emo\u017eitel diktatury, z\u016fstane-li z\u00e1visl\u00fd na Rusku, se tedy mus\u00ed bu\u010f s\u00e1m prom\u011bnit v\u00a0draka, nebo p\u0159ij\u00edt o\u00a0moc.\r\n\r\nHlavn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou ov\u0161em z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, zda m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0B\u011blorusku doj\u00edt ke stejn\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji jako v\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii. V\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii v\u0161ak za celou dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00ed samostatnosti existovalo \u017eiv\u00e9 politick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed, stranick\u00e9 aktivity, neust\u00e1l\u00e1 opozi\u010dn\u00ed povst\u00e1n\u00ed a m\u00edtinky. To nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak je, \u017ee i p\u0159es z\u00e1vislost na Rusku je v\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii od po\u010d\u00e1tku siln\u00e1 idea n\u00e1rodn\u00ed svornosti a st\u00e1tu jako \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi sousedy. V\u00a0B\u011blorusku nic takov\u00e9ho nen\u00ed a nikdy nebylo. Srovn\u00e1vat situace je tedy t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9.\r\n\r\nZat\u00edm je jasn\u00e1 jedin\u00e1 v\u011bc: \u201evolby\u201c Luka\u0161enko v\u00edt\u011bzoslavn\u011b vyhraje, proto\u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u201evolby\u201c vlastn\u011b neprob\u011bhnou. Ustoj\u00ed-li povolebn\u00ed situaci, bude ve sv\u00e9m nekone\u010dn\u00e9m a nesmysln\u00e9m vl\u00e1dnut\u00ed pokra\u010dovat. Pokud ji neustoj\u00ed, pak za\u010dne \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh s\u00a0nejist\u00fdm rozuzlen\u00edm.\r\n\r\nNejist\u00fdm proto, \u017ee nesm\u00edme opom\u00edjet rusk\u00fd z\u00e1jem. Kreml v\u016fbec nepot\u0159ebuje, aby vyhr\u00e1l Luka\u0161enko nebo Babaryka. Pro Kreml je B\u011blorusko stejn\u011b jako Ukrajina jen provizorn\u00edm st\u00e1tem, do\u010dasn\u011b od\u0161t\u011bpen\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm. V\u00a0Moskv\u011b se jen \u010dek\u00e1, a\u017e vl\u00e1dce tohoto \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159istoup\u00ed na jeho inkorporaci do Ruska. Jak sv\u00e9ho \u010dasu jasn\u011b \u0159ekl Luka\u0161enkovi Putin, jako jednotliv\u00e9 oblasti.\r\n\r\nV\u00a0tomto smyslu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro Kreml v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jak oslaben\u00ed Luka\u0161enkova postaven\u00ed, aby byl svoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, tak tot\u00e1ln\u00ed destabilizace zem\u011b\u00a0\u2013 v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bude snaz\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddnout j\u00ed \u201epomoc\u201c. V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed prorusk\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta by bylo tak\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, proto\u017ee by tento kandid\u00e1t podepsal \u201epoctivou\u201c smlouvu s\u00a0Ruskem a dos\u00e1hl vytou\u017een\u00e9 integrace, kterou dikt\u00e1tor brzdil \u201enavzdory v\u016fli bratrsk\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f\u201c.\r\n\r\nCo by bylo pro Rusko skute\u010dn\u011b nev\u00fdhodn\u00e9, je tot\u00e1ln\u00ed zhroucen\u00ed re\u017eimu v\u00a0d\u016fsledku n\u00e1rodn\u00edho povst\u00e1n\u00ed, Luka\u0161enk\u016fv \u00fat\u011bk a \u201erestart\u201c b\u011blorusk\u00e9 politiky. V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by toti\u017e mohla b\u00fdt skute\u010dn\u011b nastolena \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e1 agenda. P\u0159i volebn\u00ed kampani by kandid\u00e1ti ji\u017e nemluvili o\u00a0Luka\u0161enkovi, ale o\u00a0Rusku a osvobozen\u00ed nikoli od dikt\u00e1tora, ale od drav\u00e9 velmoci, kter\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed zni\u010dit jak b\u011blorusk\u00fd st\u00e1t, tak b\u011bloruskou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed identitu. Pak vyjde najevo, \u017ee cel\u00e9 ono \u201ebratrstv\u00ed\u201c bylo ve skute\u010dnosti prachoby\u010dejn\u00fdm podru\u010d\u00edm, vnucov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159\u00ed\u017eivnictv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 znemo\u017e\u0148ovalo rozvoj st\u00e1tu, rozkr\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm B\u011bloruska\u00a0\u2013 jak skrze Luka\u0161enka, kter\u00fd \u0159\u00eddil jakousi obdobu okupa\u010dn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy, tak skrze Babaryku, kter\u00fd \u0159\u00eddil hlavn\u00ed b\u011bloruskou banku Gazpromu. I kdy\u017e mluvit o\u00a0p\u0159edpokladech pro tento v\u00fdvoj je zat\u00edm p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9, pr\u00e1v\u011b ten je Luka\u0161enkovou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016frou v\u00a0kontextu dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje situace v\u00a0B\u011blorusku.\r\n\r\nA stejn\u00e1 v\u011bc je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016frou tak\u00e9 pro Putina.\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\n<em>Autor: Vitalij Portnykov\r\nZdroj: <a href=\"https:\/\/bykvu.com\/ru\/mysli\/samyi-hlavnyi-strakh-putyna-y-lukashenko-vozmozhna-ly-perezahruzka-belorusskoi-polytyky\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bykvu.com<\/a>, 22.\u00a06.\u00a02020\r\nP\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a><\/em>","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/78"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8455"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8455\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8457,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8455\/revisions\/8457"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}