{"id":8488,"date":"2020-07-08T16:53:27","date_gmt":"2020-07-08T16:53:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=8488"},"modified":"2020-07-08T16:53:27","modified_gmt":"2020-07-08T16:53:27","slug":"scenar-ofenzivy-armady-rf-ze-severovychodu-analyza-operacni-situace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/scenar-ofenzivy-armady-rf-ze-severovychodu-analyza-operacni-situace\/","title":{"rendered":"Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ofenzivy arm\u00e1dy RF ze severov\u00fdchodu. Anal\u00fdza opera\u010dn\u00ed situace"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nab\u00edz\u00edme \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016fm webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nek mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dobrovolnick\u00e9 komunity <\/em>InformNapalm dal\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzu jednoho ze sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f ofenzivy arm\u00e1dy RF do Ukrajiny od severov\u00fdchodu. Tento rozbor opera\u010dn\u00ed situace \u201epo lopat\u011b\u201c zpracoval vojensk\u00fd analytik Artem Vasylenko<\/a>, kter\u00fd v\u00a0letech 2014 a\u017e 2015 psal pravideln\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 svodky a analytick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy k\u00a0situaci kolem boj\u016f na Donbase, kter\u00e9 byly publikov\u00e1ny na webu InformNapalm.<\/em><\/p>\n

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V\u00a0minul\u00e9 publikaci<\/a> o\u00a0sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i ofenzivy arm\u00e1dy RF z\u00a0Krymu \u201epro vodu\u201c jsme analyzovali mo\u017enou podobu vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed RF ve sm\u011bru Krym. Dnes zkus\u00edme rozebrat pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00fdvoje v\u00a0jin\u00e9, nem\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed oblasti.<\/p>\n

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\u201eRozbor let\u016f\u201c<\/h2>\n

V\u00a0\u00favodu tak\u00e9 zodpov\u00edme ot\u00e1zky \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016f k\u00a0minul\u00e9 anal\u00fdze: \u201ePro\u010d nebyla objasn\u011bna mo\u017enost nasazen\u00ed letectva RF?\u201c<\/em>. Rozbor vojensk\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed RF s\u00a0pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9ho a bombardovac\u00edho letectva sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o\u00a0jeho zna\u010dn\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b st\u0159etu s\u00a0regul\u00e9rn\u00edmi ozbrojen\u00fdmi s\u00edlami. Jako p\u0159\u00edklad posta\u010d\u00ed rok 2008 v\u00a0Gruzii, kde protileteck\u00e1 obrana sest\u0159elila za 5\u00a0dn\u016f 6\u00a0letadel. V\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpadech (I\u010dkerie, S\u00fdrie) pozorujeme ztr\u00e1ty p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b na helikopt\u00e9r\u00e1ch, co se t\u00fd\u010de letadel pak jde bu\u010f o\u00a0technick\u00e9 poruchy (n\u011bkdy o\u00a0chyby pilot\u016f), nebo o\u00a0z\u00e1sahy na leti\u0161t\u00edch. Co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee provoz dost kvalitn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu protileteck\u00e9 obrany v\u00a0r\u00e1mci Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed efektivitu nasazen\u00ed letectva RF. Nep\u0159\u00edmo to dokazuj\u00ed ud\u00e1losti z\u00a0minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne (zabaven\u00ed klystron\u016f<\/a>) jako prvek hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Kdy\u017e se pracovalo na minul\u00e9 publikaci s\u00a0rozborem opera\u010dn\u00ed oblasti ve sm\u011bru Krym, je\u0161t\u011b nebyly zve\u0159ejn\u011bny aktualizovan\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 \u00fadaje o\u00a0vojensk\u00e9m potenci\u00e1lu RF pobl\u00ed\u017e ukrajinsk\u00fdch hranic a na okupovan\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.
\nUve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed t\u011bchto informac\u00ed<\/a> a jejich poskytnut\u00ed OBSE v\u00fdrazn\u011b usnadnilo \u00fakol na\u0161im OSINT expert\u016fm a umo\u017enilo ov\u011b\u0159it a potvrdit vlastn\u00ed \u0161et\u0159en\u00ed a data. Napo\u010d\u00edtali jsme t\u0159eba 6\u00a0prapor\u016f, kter\u00e9 se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zapoj\u00ed do veden\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f, s\u00a0v\u011bdom\u00edm toho, \u017ee tankov\u00fd prapor 126.\u00a0samostatn\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed obrany RF (vojensk\u00fd \u00fatvar \u010d.\u00a012676) bude s\u00a0velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed rozd\u011blen mezi motost\u0159eleck\u00e9 prapory a prapory n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty, zat\u00edmco dle Hlavn\u00edho rozv\u011bdn\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu Ministerstva obrany Ukrajiny je na Krymu z\u0159\u00edzeno 6\u00a0praporov\u00fdch taktick\u00fdch skupin. V\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru minul\u00e9 publikace jsme zam\u00fd\u0161leli popsat pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd v\u00fdvojov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00a0don\u011bck\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed oblasti, po zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed shora uveden\u00fdch informac\u00ed jsme v\u0161ak v\u011bnovali pozornost dokon\u010den\u00ed z\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed dvou motost\u0159eleck\u00fdch diviz\u00ed 20.\u00a0v\u0161evojskov\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (ve Voron\u011b\u017ei), a sice 3.\u00a0divize (Bogu\u010dar) a 144.\u00a0divize (Jel\u0148a).<\/p>\n

Pravideln\u00ed \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i InformNapalmu si mimochodem pamatuj\u00ed, \u017ee na\u0161e zpravodajsk\u00e1 dobrovolnick\u00e1 komunita p\u0159ed \u010dasem jako prvn\u00ed upozornila na vznik nov\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch \u00fatvar\u016f v\u00a0lokalit\u011b Klincy, a sice 488.\u00a0samostatn\u00e9ho motost\u0159eleck\u00e9ho pluku, stejn\u011b tak na z\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sobovac\u00edch \u00fatvar\u016f 3.\u00a0motost\u0159eleck\u00e9 divize a 20.\u00a0v\u0161evojskov\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy celkov\u011b (podrobnosti viz na seznamu odkaz\u016f pod touto publikac\u00ed<\/em><\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Je rovn\u011b\u017e zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, jak p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b se pro Ministerstvo obrany RF aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vyv\u00edj\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sporn\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky se zabran\u00fdmi pozemky m\u00edstn\u00edch farm\u00e1\u0159\u016f u\u00a0Valujki.<\/p>\n

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Anal\u00fdza sm\u011bru severov\u00fdchod<\/h2>\n

P\u0159ejd\u011bme k samotn\u00e9 anal\u00fdze p\u0159edm\u011btn\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed oblasti na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm uve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch sn\u00edmk\u016f. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed sn\u00edmek obsahuje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u010det \u010derven\u00fdch koso\u010dtverc\u016f pobl\u00ed\u017e severov\u00fdchodn\u00edch hranic Ukrajiny, co\u017e zp\u016fsobuje ukrajinsk\u00fdm ob\u010dan\u016fm jist\u00fd neklid, zkusme vysv\u011btlit, co dva shora uveden\u00e9 svazky dok\u00e1\u017eou, a co zase nedok\u00e1\u017eou.<\/p>\n

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Rozbor za\u010dneme pln\u00fdm stavem oby\u010dejn\u00e9 v\u0161evojskov\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy RF, sn\u00edmek toti\u017e nezachycuje n\u011bkter\u00e9 kritick\u00e9 str\u00e1nky.<\/p>\n

20. v\u0161evojskov\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se \u0161t\u00e1bem ve Voron\u011b\u017ei m\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9m stavu vedle dvou shora uveden\u00fdch diviz\u00ed tak\u00e9 448. raketovou brig\u00e1du, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 12 odpalovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00edho taktick\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho kompletu Iskander-M (foto<\/a>) s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee k\u00a0nim jsou k\u00a0dispozici tak\u00e9 p\u0159epravn\u00ed a nab\u00edjec\u00ed stroje, kdy na ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00a0nich p\u0159ipadaj\u00ed 4\u00a0rakety.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Tato brig\u00e1da je schopna sou\u010dasn\u011b za\u00fato\u010dit na 24\u00a0c\u00edl\u016f na vzd\u00e1lenost a\u017e 500\u00a0km, co\u017e mohou b\u00fdt velitelsk\u00e1 stanovi\u0161t\u011b vojskov\u00fdch skupin, odd\u00edly protileteck\u00e9 obrany nebo letouny na leti\u0161t\u00edch. Je to sice dost p\u016fsobiv\u00e9, ale nikoli kritick\u00e9. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace toti\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina t\u011bchto c\u00edl\u016f nebude dlouho z\u016fst\u00e1vat na stejn\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b (doufejme, \u017ee ze zku\u0161enost\u00ed z\u00a0roku 2014, zejm\u00e9na co se t\u00fdkalo \u0161t\u00e1bu sektoru L, se velen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil p\u0159ece jen pou\u010dilo). Do t\u00e9to arm\u00e1dy pat\u0159\u00ed tak\u00e9 236.\u00a0samostatn\u00e1 d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e1 brig\u00e1da. Kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 dva odd\u00edly 2S19 Msta-S, jeden odd\u00edl Torn\u00e1d a jeden protitankov\u00fd odd\u00edl \u0160turm-S. Tato brig\u00e1da m\u00e1 z\u00e1kladnu v\u00a0Kolomn\u011b, kter\u00e1 je od opera\u010dn\u00ed oblasti vzd\u00e1lena p\u0159es 500\u00a0km, samostatn\u00fdm znakem<\/strong>, \u017ee Z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd okruh n\u011bco chyst\u00e1, tedy bude zah\u00e1jen\u00ed nakl\u00e1dky t\u00e9to brig\u00e1dy do \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00edch vozidel<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: P\u0159es rozpo\u010det nejede vlak: kolik bude st\u00e1t nov\u00fd rusk\u00fd \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed obchvat Ukrajiny<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Te\u010f k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee v\u00a0r\u00e1mci 20.\u00a0arm\u00e1dy p\u016fsob\u00ed tak\u00e9 1.\u00a0samostatn\u00e1 tankov\u00e1 brig\u00e1da. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zdroje uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee byla z\u0159\u00edzena<\/a> v\u00a0Bogu\u010daru, n\u011bkter\u00e9 dokonce pod\u00e1vaj\u00ed informaci, \u017ee na jej\u00ed p\u016fd\u011b za\u010dala vznikat<\/a> 10.\u00a0samostatn\u00e1 tankov\u00e1 divize, rozbor jin\u00fdch dokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159edm\u011btn\u00e9 obci p\u016fsob\u00ed 262.\u00a0skladovac\u00ed a oprav\u00e1rensk\u00e9 st\u0159edisko vojensk\u00e9 techniky, kter\u00e9 je jak\u00fdmsi \u201esbalen\u00fdm\u201c tankov\u00fdm plukem. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee ve zpravodajsk\u00fdch datech, kter\u00e1 den p\u0159edt\u00edm ozn\u00e1mil ukrajinsk\u00fd gener\u00e1lporu\u010d\u00edk Leonid Holopa\u0165uk, informace o\u00a0p\u0159\u00edtomnosti samostatn\u00e9 tankov\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy RF v\u00a0Bogu\u010daru chyb\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b jsme vznesli domn\u011bnku, \u017ee by se v\u00a0t\u011bchto m\u00edstech mohl vyskytovat vojensk\u00fd \u00fatvar pro tankovou brig\u00e1du slo\u017een\u00fd ze 3\u00a0tankov\u00fdch a 1\u00a0motost\u0159eleck\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy. Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee organiza\u010dn\u00ed struktura \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch arm\u00e1d RF sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee ve sv\u00e9m stavu m\u00edvaj\u00ed 2\u00a0divize prvn\u00ed \u0159ady a 1 a\u017e 2\u00a0brig\u00e1dy druh\u00e9 \u0159ady<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 lze pou\u017e\u00edt jako v\u0161evojskov\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy. Chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed samostatn\u00e1 motost\u0159eleck\u00e1 (tankov\u00e1) brig\u00e1da s\u00a0arm\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nost\u00ed tedy vede k\u00a0jist\u00fdm \u00favah\u00e1m.<\/p>\n