{"id":8986,"date":"2020-12-16T17:37:58","date_gmt":"2020-12-16T17:37:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=8986"},"modified":"2020-12-25T20:21:31","modified_gmt":"2020-12-25T20:21:31","slug":"jizni-kavkaz-dilema-armenie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/jizni-kavkaz-dilema-armenie\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz: dilema Arm\u00e9nie"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ilustrace: ankasam.org<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Autorem tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku je Andrius Kubilius<\/strong>, poslanec Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu a st\u00e1l\u00fd referent EP pro Rusko. \u010cl\u00e1nek poprv\u00e9 vy\u0161el na webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch litevsk\u00e9 delegace<\/a> v\u00a0r\u00e1mci klubu Evropsk\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 strany. \u010cl\u00e1nek p\u0159ipravil k\u00a0publikaci partner InformNapalmu <\/strong>v\u00a0Litv\u011b Res Publica\u00a0\u2013 Centrum ob\u010dansk\u00e9ho odporu<\/a><\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Druh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka o\u00a0N\u00e1horn\u00ed Karabach skon\u010dila. N\u00e1zory na to, kdo zv\u00edt\u011bzil, se r\u016fzn\u00ed: jedni \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, jin\u00ed maj\u00ed pocit, \u017ee jako hlavn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bz vy\u0161el Putin. Mn\u011b a \u0159ad\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch expert\u016f p\u0159ipad\u00e1, \u017ee nejv\u00edce z\u00edskal Erdogan, p\u0159inutil toti\u017e Putina, aby se vzdal sv\u00e9ho dosavadn\u00edho monopolu na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze ve prosp\u011bch Turecka.<\/p>\n

Letos ostatn\u011b \u0161lo ji\u017e o\u00a0t\u0159et\u00ed konflikt (po Libyi a syrsk\u00e9m Idlibu), kdy m\u011blo Rusko p\u0159iznat p\u0159evahu tureck\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Proto p\u016fsob\u00ed cel\u00e1 situace tak, \u017ee se Kreml prost\u011b netroufl pom\u00e1hat Arm\u00e9n\u016fm s\u00a0obranou N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu. V\u00a0situaci, kdy Kreml m\u00e1 prost\u011b strach prohr\u00e1t Turk\u016fm pot\u0159et\u00ed, nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 ne\u017e podporovat \u0161u\u0161k\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee se pr\u00fd Putin cht\u011bl p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pomst\u00edt Pa\u0161injanovi a pr\u00e1v\u011b proto mu tuto por\u00e1\u017eku \u201eza\u0159\u00eddil\u201c, proto\u017ee se tento dostal k\u00a0moci skrze \u201esametovou revoluci\u201c, co\u017e Putin naprosto nestrp\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zda je v\u00fdsledek 2.\u00a0v\u00e1lky v\u00a0N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu dokladem, \u017ee moc Kremlu sl\u00e1bne nejen v\u00a0B\u011blorusku, Moldavsku nebo Chabarovsku, ale tak\u00e9 na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze, je t\u00e9ma zasluhuj\u00edc\u00ed si samostatnou anal\u00fdzu, kterou bych r\u00e1d zpracoval n\u011bkdy v\u00a0budoucnu jako samostatn\u00fd text.<\/p>\n

Dnes je asi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 naj\u00edt p\u0159esnou odpov\u011b\u010f, jak\u00e9 c\u00edle a \u00favahy jak v\u00a0Moskv\u011b, tak v\u00a0Anka\u0159e rozhodly o\u00a0tomto v\u00fdsledku 2.\u00a0karaba\u0161sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, je v\u0161ak z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee to v\u00a0podstat\u011b zp\u016fsobilo politick\u00e9 zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze, jeho\u017e n\u00e1sledky budou v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch desetilet\u00edch zn\u00e1t. S\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b tyto n\u00e1sledky poc\u00edt\u00ed mal\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci tohoto konfliktu, Arm\u00e9nie a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fd voj\u00e1k a rusk\u00fd \u201em\u00edrotvorce\u201c hl\u00eddkuj\u00ed na kontroln\u00edm stanovi\u0161ti na okraji \u0160u\u0161i v\u00a0N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu 13.\u00a0listopadu 2020\u00a0\/ Foto Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n

Tento text chci v\u011bnovat tomu z\u00a0\u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f konfliktu, jej\u017e v\u0161ichni jednomysln\u011b hodnot\u00ed jako pora\u017eenou stranu v\u00a0t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce, a sice Arm\u00e9nii.<\/p>\n

Jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed si dok\u00e1\u017eeme p\u0159edstavit, co poci\u0165uje po t\u00e9to por\u00e1\u017ece arm\u00e9nsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost jak v\u00a0samotn\u00e9 Arm\u00e9nii, tak po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Zlost, potupa, nejistota ohledn\u011b dlouhodob\u00e9 budoucnosti\u00a0\u2013 toto v\u0161e jsou patrn\u011b p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed emoce. Stejn\u011b jako tvrd\u00e1 kritika sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. Co\u017e je pochopiteln\u011b. Zejm\u00e9na p\u0159ipomeneme-li si tragick\u00e9 arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 d\u011bjiny v\u00a0posledn\u00edch stolet\u00edch, s\u00a0genocidou arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1roda a s\u00a0tak nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm politick\u00fdm sousedstv\u00edm, kter\u00e9 Arm\u00e9nii p\u0159edur\u010dila jej\u00ed geografie.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto nechci v\u00a0tomto textu \u0159e\u0161it, pro\u010d Arm\u00e9ni tuto v\u00e1lku prohr\u00e1li a co dosud z\u00a0geopolitick\u00e9ho hlediska d\u011blali \u0161patn\u011b (i kdy\u017e p\u00e1r post\u0159eh\u016f na toto t\u00e9ma p\u0159ece jen vyj\u00e1d\u0159\u00edm), mnohem v\u00edc bych v\u0161ak cht\u011bl mluvit o\u00a0tom, jak\u00e9 alternativy Arm\u00e9nie v\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9m v\u00fdhledu m\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Arm\u00e9ni nejsou prvn\u00edm n\u00e1rodem, kter\u00fd je t\u011b\u017ece a tragicky zkou\u0161en bolestivou prohrou. Na n\u011bkter\u00e9 n\u00e1rody m\u011bly podobn\u00e9 trag\u00e9die destruktivn\u00ed dopad, nicm\u00e9n\u011b sv\u011btov\u00e9 d\u011bjiny nab\u00edzej\u00ed \u0159adu p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00fdch uk\u00e1zek, kdy se bolestiv\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka stala pro n\u00e1rod radik\u00e1ln\u00edm podn\u011btem k\u00a0p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed sv\u00e9 budouc\u00ed cesty a k\u00a0vlastn\u00edmu pozvednut\u00ed z\u00a0propasti.<\/p>\n

Slavn\u00fd Jeremy Diamond ve sv\u00e9 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed knize Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change (P\u0159evrat: zlomov\u00e9 okam\u017eiky n\u00e1rod\u016f v\u00a0krizi, 2019, https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Upheaval-Turning-Points-Nations-Crisis\/dp\/0316409138<\/a>) popisuje, jak se n\u011bkter\u00fdm n\u00e1rod\u016fm po podobn\u00fdch trag\u00e9di\u00edch poda\u0159ila radik\u00e1ln\u00ed obnova, zejm\u00e9na uv\u00e1d\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklady Finska, Japonska, Chile, Indon\u00e9sie, N\u011bmecka, Austr\u00e1lie nebo Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. D.\u00a0Diamond p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b rozv\u00edj\u00ed teorii, \u017ee by se n\u00e1rody v\u00a0podobn\u00e9 krizi m\u011bly chovat podobn\u011b jako \u010dlov\u011bk proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed hlubokou kriz\u00ed osobnosti. Psychologov\u00e9 znaj\u00ed 12\u00a0hlavn\u00edch \u010din\u016f a faktor\u016f podmi\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch obnovu takov\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bka, po\u010d\u00ednaje t\u00edm, \u017ee s\u00e1m sob\u011b p\u0159izn\u00e1, \u017ee je v\u00a0hlubok\u00e9 krizi a mus\u00ed u\u010dinit kroky k\u00a0p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to krize. Tyto z\u00e1sady osobn\u00ed psychologie transformuje D.\u00a0Diamond v\u00a012\u00a0pravidel pro n\u00e1rody proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed kriz\u00ed, od n\u00e1rodn\u00ed shody a p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee je n\u00e1rod a st\u00e1t v\u00a0krizi a \u017ee lid mus\u00ed naj\u00edt nov\u00e9 v\u00fdchodisko s\u00e1m, p\u0159es zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed podobn\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed jin\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f a odm\u00edtnut\u00ed zaveden\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch omezen\u00ed a\u017e po p\u0159ijet\u00ed podpory od dal\u0161\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f (https:\/\/blog.12min.com\/upheaval-pdf-summary\/<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Co tedy kniha Jeremyho Diamonda vlastn\u011b Arm\u00e9nii rad\u00ed?<\/h2>\n

Za prv\u00e9 usilovat o\u00a0celon\u00e1rodn\u00ed shodu a uv\u011bdom\u011bn\u00ed si skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee je st\u00e1t a n\u00e1rod v\u00a0hlubok\u00e9 krizi a \u017ee Arm\u00e9ni budou muset nov\u00e1 strategick\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed naj\u00edt sami. Dos\u00e1hnout t\u00e9to shody neb\u00fdv\u00e1 snadn\u00e9, v\u017edy tu toti\u017e bude poku\u0161en\u00ed obvi\u0148ovat b\u00fdval\u00e9 vrcholn\u00e9 politiky, \u017ee sv\u00e9ho \u010dasu st\u00e1t na tuto v\u00e1lku nep\u0159ipravili. Podobn\u00fd \u201efestival\u201c vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed zrovna t\u00edm postupem, kter\u00fd doporu\u010duje D.\u00a0Diamond a kter\u00fd pou\u017eily dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rody, je\u017e p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed podobn\u00fdch kriz\u00ed pos\u00edlilo. Dok\u00e1zaly vyhnout se vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9mu obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed a postoupit do mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hloubky v\u00a0anal\u00fdze vlastn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f a p\u0159\u00ed\u010din jejich vzniku. Jen to umo\u017e\u0148uje nach\u00e1zet nov\u00e1 strategick\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 dovol\u00ed st\u00e1tu vzpamatovat se a p\u0159ekonat krizi.<\/p>\n

Nev\u00edm, jak\u00e9 odpov\u011bdi by pro sebe arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd lid v\u00a0takto hloubkov\u00e9 introspekci na\u0161el ohledn\u011b sv\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f a p\u0159\u00ed\u010din jejich vzniku, r\u00e1d bych v\u0161ak sly\u0161el odpov\u011b\u010f na dv\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u011b souvisej\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka prvn\u00ed: <\/strong>zda bylo pro Arm\u00e9nii rozumn\u00e9 se cel\u00e1 tato l\u00e9ta sna\u017eit jen o\u00a0zachov\u00e1n\u00ed status quo vznikl\u00e9ho po prvn\u00ed karaba\u0161sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce 1992\u20131994, kterou Arm\u00e9nie vyhr\u00e1la, ani\u017e by v\u00a0podstat\u011b usilovala o\u00a0dosa\u017een\u00ed trval\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody a dok\u00e1zala pro m\u00edr ob\u011btovat \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 po prvn\u00ed karaba\u0161sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce z\u016fstalo v\u00a0arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 okupaci, i kdy\u017e nepat\u0159ilo ke skute\u010dn\u00e9mu arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9mu Karabachu?<\/p>\n

Zachov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00edho status quo se na dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta stalo pro Arm\u00e9ny v\u00a0cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00ed ideou\u201c a t\u00edm jedin\u00fdm, co Arm\u00e9nii v\u00a0r\u00e1mci mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed odli\u0161ovalo. P\u016fsob\u00ed to dojmem, \u017ee b\u011bhem cel\u00e9 t\u00e9to doby ji\u017e arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd lid nem\u011bl s\u00edly nejen fyzick\u00e9, ale ani du\u0161evn\u00ed \u010di citov\u00e9. V\u00edra, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 moc Ruska pom\u016f\u017ee udr\u017eet tento status quo, se uk\u00e1zala jako naprosto zcestn\u00e1<\/strong>. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato dlouholet\u00e1 snaha o\u00a0zachov\u00e1n\u00ed status quo se stala hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou leto\u0161n\u00ed trag\u00e9die. Nav\u00edc m\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka ten zcela zjevn\u00fd n\u00e1sledek, \u017ee z\u00a0\u00fazemn\u00edho hlediska se jedn\u00e1 v\u00a0podstat\u011b o\u00a0n\u00e1vrat k\u00a0situaci, kter\u00e1 existovala p\u0159ed rokem 1992.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka druh\u00e1: bylo po celou tuto dobu strategicky spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 spojovat svou geopolitickou bezpe\u010dnost pouze s\u00a0jedin\u00fdm sousedem, a sice Ruskem, kter\u00e9 br\u00e1nilo ve\u0161ker\u00fdm arm\u00e9nsk\u00fdm pokus\u016fm o\u00a0intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed se Z\u00e1padem, zejm\u00e9na s\u00a0Evropskou uni\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nakonec vy\u0161lo najevo, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky poskytovan\u00e9 Moskvou nejsou \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 <\/strong>(zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0situaci, kdy se Kreml dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do st\u0159etu s\u00a0pokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00edmi tureck\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi technologiemi); podporovan\u00e1 Kremlem strategie zachov\u00e1n\u00ed status quo se tak\u00e9 uk\u00e1zala jako klamn\u00e1; hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 prov\u00e1zanost s\u00a0rusk\u00fdmi a euroasijsk\u00fdmi trhy neumo\u017enila Arm\u00e9nii se zcela p\u0159eorientovat na trhy z\u00e1padn\u00ed a takto vytvo\u0159it pro zemi dlouhodob\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch, zat\u00edmco vztahy s\u00a0Evropskou uni\u00ed z\u016fstaly jen ambivalentn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Iluze bezpe\u010dnosti. Doned\u00e1vna po\u0159\u00e1daly Rusko a Arm\u00e9nie spole\u010dn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed. Kdy\u017e v\u0161ak Arm\u00e9nie skute\u010dn\u011b pot\u0159ebovala pomoc, pomohlo j\u00ed Rusko jen m\u00e1lo.\u00a0\/ foto massispost.com<\/em><\/p>\n

Toto v\u0161e tvo\u0159\u00ed arm\u00e9nskou strategii v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech desetilet\u00edch, kter\u00e1 vedla k\u00a0arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed trag\u00e9dii, alespo\u0148 tak to p\u016fsob\u00ed p\u0159i pohledu z\u00a0Vilniusu.<\/p>\n

Toto jsou m\u00e9 subjektivn\u00ed odpov\u011bdi na ot\u00e1zky, kter\u00e9 pro arm\u00e9nskou introspekci pokl\u00e1d\u00e1 kniha od D.\u00a0Diamonda. Jen sami Arm\u00e9ni dok\u00e1\u017eou d\u00e1t mnohem p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hloubkov\u00e9 odpov\u011bdi, nejd\u0159\u00edve v\u0161ak mus\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt tyto odpov\u011bdi hledat.<\/p>\n

Odpov\u011bdi, kter\u00e9 nab\u00edz\u00edm j\u00e1 s\u00e1m, napov\u00eddaj\u00ed pojet\u00ed, jak by mohla vypadat nov\u00e1 arm\u00e9nsk\u00e1 strategie, kter\u00e1 by t\u00e9to zemi pomohla p\u0159ekonat tuto tragickou krizi.<\/p>\n

Vid\u011bl bych v\u00a0tom dv\u011b hlavn\u00ed v\u011bci, kter\u00e9 spojuji se vztahy mezi Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed a Evropskou uni\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9 by m\u011bla Evropsk\u00e1 unie spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi partnery (novou administrativou USA) p\u0159ij\u00edt s\u00a0iniciativou na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho mechanismu pro karaba\u0161sk\u00e9 Arm\u00e9ny \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 domovin\u011b, kter\u00fd by nebyl z\u00e1visl\u00fd jen na nespolehliv\u00fdch kremelsk\u00fdch m\u00edrotvorc\u00edch. Nen\u00ed tomu tak dlouho, co Z\u00e1pad musel \u0159e\u0161it mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky pro kosovsk\u00e9 Alb\u00e1nce a dok\u00e1zal je vytvo\u0159it<\/strong>. Nemysl\u00edm t\u00edm, \u017ee by Z\u00e1pad m\u011bl kosovsk\u00fd model zkop\u00edrovat v\u00a0Karabachu, je v\u0161ak z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad mus\u00ed hr\u00e1t mnohem aktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed roli, chce-li zamezit nov\u00e9mu \u201ebl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edmu\u201c sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze. Pokud vyd\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu v\u00a0tomto regionu napospas pouze rusk\u00e9mu a tureck\u00e9mu dohledu, z\u016fstane jihokavkazsk\u00fd region, kter\u00fd je bl\u00edzk\u00fdm sousedem Evropsk\u00e9 unie a disponuje strategick\u00fdmi ropn\u00fdmi a plynov\u00fdmi zdroji, oblast\u00ed posti\u017eenou turbulencemi a manipulacemi Kremlu.<\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky pro karaba\u0161sk\u00e9 Arm\u00e9ny by umo\u017enily Arm\u00e9nii uposlechnout dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 rady z\u00a0Diamondovy knihy, a sice p\u0159ehodnotit zaveden\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e1 omezen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9 Arm\u00e9nie, kterou obklopuje Turecko, jeho geopolitick\u00fd satelit \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, geopolitick\u00e9 mocnosti \u00cdr\u00e1n a Rusko, se nikdy nebude c\u00edtit bezpe\u010dn\u011b, bude-li svou bezpe\u010dnost spojovat jen se zbran\u011bmi, a\u0165 u\u017e dosavadn\u00edmi \u010di pl\u00e1novan\u00fdmi k\u00a0n\u00e1kupu. Jedin\u00fdm rozumn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem pro Arm\u00e9nii, jak hledat dal\u0161\u00ed cesty k\u00a0pos\u00edlen\u00ed sv\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti, je zam\u011b\u0159it se na hospod\u00e1\u0159skou a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed prosperitu Arm\u00e9nie<\/strong>. Izrael na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m V\u00fdchod\u011b, jeho\u017e sousedi jsou sam\u00e9 v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed v\u00fdzvy, je chr\u00e1n\u011bn v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b nikoli t\u00edm, \u017ee m\u00e1 mnoho zbran\u00ed, ale proto\u017ee dok\u00e1zal vytvo\u0159it velmi v\u00fdkonnou ekonomiku. Arm\u00e9nie nem\u00e1 na v\u00fdb\u011br ne\u017e se soust\u0159edit na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho z\u00e1zraku na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze. K\u00a0tomu je nutn\u00e9 ve sv\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed strategii p\u0159ej\u00edt od vojensk\u00fdch priorit k\u00a0priorit\u00e1m rozvojov\u00fdm, k\u00a0z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investic a k\u00a0modernizaci. Z\u00a0Arm\u00e9nie, kter\u00e1 neopl\u00fdv\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edmi zdroji, se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t zem\u011b s\u00a0\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou ekonomikou jen skrze integraci s\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sky siln\u00fdm Z\u00e1padem, kdy\u017e si d\u00e1 za c\u00edl u\u017e\u0161\u00ed partnerstv\u00ed s\u00a0Evropskou uni\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Realizovat tuto zm\u011bnu sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 vize nebude pro samotnou Arm\u00e9nii snadn\u00e9, z\u016fstane-li osamocena. Evropsk\u00e1 unie by v\u00a0tom mohla sehr\u00e1t velmi v\u00fdznamnou roli. Jak p\u00ed\u0161e s\u00e1m D.\u00a0Diamond, n\u00e1rod\u016fm proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm hlubokou kriz\u00ed pom\u00e1h\u00e1 se znovu postavit na nohy v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 podpora ze strany dal\u0161\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f nebo organizac\u00ed. To ov\u0161em teprve pot\u00e9, a\u017e si s\u00e1m n\u00e1rod uv\u011bdom\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny sv\u00e9 krize a akceptuje obrysy nov\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed strategie.<\/p>\n

Stabilita na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze by m\u011bla b\u00fdt pro Evropskou uni\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou prioritou. Samotn\u00e1 Evropsk\u00e1 unie se mus\u00ed nau\u010dit tuto stabilitu vytv\u00e1\u0159et a vychov\u00e1vat. Pouh\u00e9 pasivn\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed neschopnosti Arm\u00e9n\u016f a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nc\u016f dos\u00e1hnout dohody a stability nebo spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed na to, \u017ee tuto stabilitu p\u0159inese Rusko, je ze stany Evropsk\u00e9 unie kr\u00e1tkozrak\u00fdm sebeklamem. Kremlu jde jen o\u00a0to, aby vytvo\u0159il na okraj\u00edch sv\u00e9ho b\u00fdval\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria dlouhodobou nestabilitu, kter\u00e1 by brzdila z\u00e1padn\u00ed integraci tohoto \u00fazem\u00ed<\/strong>. Pro Evropskou unii je v\u0161ak v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eet stabilitu, proto\u017ee pokud tak ne\u010din\u00ed, pak mus\u00ed dov\u00e1\u017eet nestabilitu.<\/p>\n

Jak dos\u00e1hnout stability v\u00a0z\u00f3n\u00e1ch s\u00a0dlouhodobou nestabilitou, uk\u00e1zala zcela ned\u00e1vno administrativa Donalda Trumpa, kdy\u017e dala n\u011bkolika arabsk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm podn\u011bt k\u00a0podpisu m\u00edrov\u00fdch dohod s\u00a0Izraelem a na opl\u00e1tku jim nab\u00eddla obrovsk\u00e9 bal\u00edky hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 pomoci. Podobn\u00e9 dohody maj\u00ed obrovsk\u00fd historick\u00fd v\u00fdznam. Nikoli nadarmo byly pojmenov\u00e1ny po slavn\u00fdch \u201eAbrahamov\u00fdch smlouv\u00e1ch\u201c p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edch biblick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o\u00a0p\u016fvodu \u017eidovsk\u00e9ho a arabsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1rod\u016f.<\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 unie by v\u00a0tom mohla USA n\u00e1sledovat a nab\u00eddnout obdobn\u00e9 dohody Arm\u00e9n\u016fm a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nc\u016fm. A to s\u00a0rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 pomoci a trval\u00fdmi oboustrann\u00fdmi m\u00edrov\u00fdmi smlouvami, kdy se najde tak\u00e9 mechanismus mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk pro karaba\u0161sk\u00e9 Arm\u00e9ny. Takov\u00e1 ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed by byla pro Arm\u00e9nii obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 v\u00fdznamn\u00e1, proto\u017ee by otev\u0159ela dve\u0159e k\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9mu arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9mu \u00fasp\u011bchu pramen\u00edc\u00edmu nikoli z\u00a0mno\u017estv\u00ed zbran\u00ed, ale ze siln\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed by m\u011blo pomoci Arm\u00e9nii roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it svou geopolitickou agendu, kter\u00e1 se mus\u00ed st\u00e1t ambici\u00f3zn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a obsahovat zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed nejen na bezpe\u010dnost, ale tak\u00e9 na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst, z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investic, prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed reforem, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed blahobyt, pot\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed korupce, respekt k\u00a0lidsk\u00fdm pr\u00e1v\u016fm a demokracii. Arm\u00e9ni by se tak dok\u00e1zali vr\u00e1tit jak do vnitrost\u00e1tn\u00ed politiky, tak do \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitiky s\u00a0novou s\u00edlou, nov\u00fdmi o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edmi a vyhl\u00eddkami. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Evropsk\u00e1 unie, by mohla Arm\u00e9nii nab\u00eddnout novou dohodu o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch strategick\u00fdch c\u00edlech, do jej\u00ed\u017e realizace by se m\u011bly zapojit mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed d\u00e1rci (G7) finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce (Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond, Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka, Evropsk\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed banka, Evropsk\u00e1 banka pro obnovu a rozvoj) a n\u00e1rodn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed instituce \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f EU.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipomeneme-li si dal\u0161\u00ed biblick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh spojen\u00fd s\u00a0Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed a horou Ararat, mohli bychom tyto dohody, kter\u00e9 Evropsk\u00e1 unie nab\u00eddne Arm\u00e9nii a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu se zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm d\u016frazem na budouc\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky Arm\u00e9nie, ozna\u010dit historick\u00fdm n\u00e1zvem jako Dohody Noemovy archy.<\/p>\n

Bible \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: miluj bli\u017en\u00edho sv\u00e9ho jako sebe sama. Jde tak\u00e9 o\u00a0vzorec m\u00edru mezi sousedy. A tak\u00e9 o\u00a0radu pro Evropskou unii: milovat sv\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed sousedy jako sebe samu, proto\u017ee je to jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zaru\u010dit m\u00edr na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze.<\/p>\n

\n

\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky k\u00a0t\u00e9matu na InformNapalmu<\/h2>\n