{"id":932,"date":"2015-11-30T20:39:40","date_gmt":"2015-11-30T20:39:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=932"},"modified":"2015-12-16T10:46:33","modified_gmt":"2015-12-16T10:46:33","slug":"koalice-mezi-ruskem-a-zapadem-proti-isis-je-nejista-rozhovor-se-serhijem-danylovem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/koalice-mezi-ruskem-a-zapadem-proti-isis-je-nejista-rozhovor-se-serhijem-danylovem\/","title":{"rendered":"Koalice mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem proti ISIS je nejist\u00e1. Rozhovor se Serhijem Danylovem"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Kreml otev\u0159en\u011b podporoval re\u017eim Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada ji\u017e od po\u010d\u00e1tku ozbrojen\u00e9ho konfliktu v\u00a0S\u00fdrii v\u00a0roce 2011. Po\u010dty civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed v\u00e1lky prudce stouply pot\u00e9, co RF zah\u00e1jila operaci Letecko-kosmick\u00fdch sil na podporu syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed arm\u00e1dy. A\u017e doned\u00e1vna m\u011bly z\u00e1padn\u00ed st\u00e1ty k\u00a0\u00fa\u010dasti RF na syrsk\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech skeptick\u00fd postoj. Teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu v\u00a0Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei ze dne 13.\u00a011.\u00a02015 zv\u00fd\u0161ily \u0161anci, \u017ee Putin bude v\u00a0Bruselu a Washingtonu vysly\u0161en. O\u00a0v\u00e1lce v\u00a0S\u00fdrii a jej\u00edch dopadech na Ukrajinu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dobrovolnick\u00e1 komunita <strong>InformNapalm <\/strong>pohovo\u0159ila se z\u00e1stupcem \u0159editele Centra pro bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed studia <strong>Serhijem Danylovem<\/strong>.<\/em><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Strany konfliktu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Kdo proti komu v\u00a0S\u00fdrii v\u00e1l\u010d\u00ed?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Situace pro\u0161la v\u00fdrazn\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami od roku 2012, kdy konflikt m\u011bl pouze dv\u011b strany, a sice opozici zastoupenou Svobodnou syrskou arm\u00e1dou (SSA), jej\u00ed\u017e kostru tvo\u0159ili p\u0159eb\u011bhl\u00edci ze Syrsk\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (SAA), a vl\u00e1dn\u00ed s\u00edly, tedy samotn\u00e1 Syrsk\u00e1 arabsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da. Ji\u017e v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b 2012 se za\u010dal konflikt internacionalizovat. Asadova vl\u00e1da za\u010dala, nejd\u0159\u00edve v\u00a0omezen\u00e9m rozsahu a epizodicky, zapojovat Hizball\u00e1h <em>(libanonsk\u00e9 \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 vojensko-politick\u00e9 uskupen\u00ed kontrolovan\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nem\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>).<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/hezbolla-v-syryy.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"263\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hizball\u00e1h v S\u00fdrii<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Pot\u00e9 co SSA utrp\u011bla v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, za\u010daly rychle r\u016fst odd\u00edly islamist\u016f. P\u0159ed rusk\u00fdm vp\u00e1dem do S\u00fdrie zde podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch informac\u00ed bojovalo a\u017e sto r\u016fzn\u00fdch islamistick\u00fdch skupin, SSA, jednotky kurdsk\u00e9 domobrany na severu zem\u011b, SAA, Hizball\u00e1h a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jednotky SSIR (<em>Sboru str\u00e1\u017ec\u016f isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revoluce\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>). P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm posledn\u00ed rok a p\u016fl ji\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 stabiln\u00ed protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice neexistovala. Povstaleck\u00e9 odd\u00edly \u010dasto nebojovaly tolik proti vl\u00e1dn\u00edm slo\u017ek\u00e1m, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e mezi sebou. Mohli bychom vy\u010dlenit t\u0159i skupiny, kter\u00e9 alespo\u0148 tvo\u0159\u00ed jak\u00e9si aliance.<\/p>\n<p>Rusk\u00fd vp\u00e1d zaktivizoval konsolidaci povstalc\u016f. \u010c\u00e1st um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fdch islamist\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed podle \u0159ady informac\u00ed p\u016fsob\u00ed za podpory Turecka a zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, za\u010dala sv\u00e9 operace koordinovat s\u00a0t\u011bmi jednotkami SSA, kter\u00e9 z\u016fstaly bojeschopn\u00e9. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u011b dv\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00e1 uskupen\u00ed, a sice An-Nusra a Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t (IS). An-Nusra se sna\u017e\u00ed na taktick\u00e9 \u00farovni spolupracovat s\u00a0povstaleck\u00fdmi skupinami v\u00a0m\u00edstech boj\u016f, nenavazuje v\u0161ak form\u00e1ln\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed ani aliance. IS vede boj \u00fapln\u011b proti v\u0161em. Nav\u00edc existuj\u00ed rozd\u00edly i v\u00a0r\u00e1mci SSA: jej\u00ed severn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st spolu \u0161patn\u011b komunikuj\u00ed, maj\u00ed odli\u0161n\u00e9 vize budoucnosti, ta severn\u00ed m\u00e1 pov\u011bst um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 s\u00edly, zat\u00edmco ta ji\u017en\u00ed tvrd\u0161\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se Kurd\u016fm poda\u0159ilo za cenu obrovsk\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed ubr\u00e1nit m\u011bsto Kob\u00e1ni, za\u010dali b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1ni jako samostatn\u00e1 s\u00edla, nez\u00e1visl\u00e1 na ostatn\u00edch opozi\u010dn\u00edch skupin\u00e1ch a frakc\u00edch.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak\u00e9 jsou nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy z\u00a0front?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Hlavn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vou z\u00a0posledn\u00edch dn\u016f je deblokace leti\u0161t\u011b u\u00a0Aleppa jednotkami SAA. Sou\u010dasn\u011b sice prob\u00edhalo d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed Lat\u00e1kie (<em>m\u011bsto kontrolovan\u00e9 Asadem, kde m\u00e1 z\u00e1kladnu skupina rusk\u00e9ho letectva\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>), rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia o\u00a0tom v\u0161ak poml\u010dela. Vojen\u0161t\u00ed experti (mezi n\u011b\u017e j\u00e1 nepat\u0159\u00edm) hodnot\u00ed pokrok b\u011bhem m\u011bs\u00edce boj\u016f za \u00fa\u010dasti rusk\u00e9ho letectva jako pom\u011brn\u011b bezv\u00fdznamn\u00fd pro SAA.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Kter\u00e9 ze stran syrsk\u00e9ho konfliktu podporuje Z\u00e1pad?<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/GettyImages-493848380-640x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Povstalci pod vlajkou SSA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Svobodnou syrskou arm\u00e1du, \u010d\u00e1st islamist\u016f a kurdskou koalici, kter\u00e1 form\u00e1ln\u011b zahrnuje i z\u00e1stupce dal\u0161\u00edch syrsk\u00fdch etnokonfesn\u00edch skupin. O\u00a0islamistech existuje dost rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 tabulka, kde je ka\u017ed\u00e1 z\u00a0organizac\u00ed hodnocena na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u0159ady krit\u00e9ri\u00ed. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee islamistick\u00fdch organizac\u00ed jsou stovky a v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00a0nich nav\u00edc existuje teprve kr\u00e1tce, jde o\u00a0pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dnou pr\u00e1ci vy\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed neust\u00e1l\u00fd update \u00fadaj\u016f. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 organizace je pe\u010dliv\u011b zat\u0159\u00edd\u011bna podle mnoha krit\u00e9ri\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na podle intenzity zapojen\u00ed do ur\u010dit\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed, intenzity kontakt\u016f s\u00a0nimi, informac\u00ed o\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadech, kdy se rozhodovalo samostatn\u011b atd. Nav\u00edc existuj\u00ed jednotky, kter\u00e9 vytvo\u0159ila p\u0159\u00edmo CIA nebo Pentagon. Osazenstvo t\u011bchto jednotek absolvovalo p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdcvik, \u0161kolen\u00ed a koordinaci, a zat\u00edmco program Pentagonu selhal, CIA se poda\u0159ilo vytvo\u0159it \u0159adu bojeschopn\u00fdch odd\u00edl\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proti nim m\u00ed\u0159ily prvn\u00ed \u00fatoky rusk\u00e9ho letectva v\u00a0S\u00fdrii. Je nutno vyzdvihnout, \u017ee tyto jednotky vznikly v\u00fdlu\u010dn\u011b za \u00fa\u010delem boje proti IS.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Pro\u010d jsou pro Z\u00e1pad n\u011bkter\u00e1 islamistick\u00e1 uskupen\u00ed p\u0159ijateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e re\u017eim Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Asad vzbuzuje jednozna\u010dnou asociaci s\u00a0Hizball\u00e1hem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed role ve v\u00e1lce v\u00a0podstat\u011b ji\u017e d\u00e1vno pat\u0159\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u011bmto s\u00edl\u00e1m. Hizball\u00e1h je ofici\u00e1ln\u011b teroristickou organizac\u00ed. P\u0159idat se na jej\u00ed stranu znamen\u00e1 poh\u0159b\u00edt sv\u00e9 vztahy se sunnitsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Nav\u00edc pr\u00e1v\u011b Asadova politika zp\u016fsobila uprchlick\u00e9 tsunami do Evropy a vznik IS na v\u00fdchod\u011b S\u00fdrie. Asad nen\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016f, ale jejich zdrojem.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>IN:\u00a0<\/strong>V<em>\u00a0\u010dem je IS specifick\u00fd mezi ostatn\u00edmi stranami konfliktu v\u00a0S\u00fdrii?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t bezesporu p\u0159edstavuje novou v\u00fdvojovou etapu radik\u00e1ln\u00edch islamistick\u00fdch d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00fdch hnut\u00ed. Je vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako hrozba kv\u016fli inovativn\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed kampani zalo\u017een\u00e9 na uk\u00e1zk\u00e1ch n\u00e1sil\u00ed a na estetizaci n\u00e1sil\u00ed.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/ISIS-634x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"227\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">IS \u2013 \u201cNov\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zas\u00e9vat strach\u201d \/ Foto: Alalam.ir<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Velk\u00e9 znepokojen\u00ed bud\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 verbovac\u00ed strategie, a to jak v\u00a0r\u00e1mci regionu, tak v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch. Schopnost mobilizovat a motivovat bojovn\u00edky k\u00a0vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed sebevra\u017eedn\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f jako t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 hlavn\u00ed slo\u017eky vojensk\u00e9 taktiky. Schopnost konsolidovat, udr\u017eovat a spravovat obsazen\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed, vytv\u00e1\u0159et n\u011bco jako civiln\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady. V\u00a0situaci, kdy st\u00e1tn\u00ed instituce v\u00a0S\u00fdrii a Ir\u00e1ku pro\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed krizi, IS celkem dok\u00e1zal i bez z\u00e1sahu zven\u010d\u00ed vytvo\u0159it stabiln\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed \u00fatvar, kter\u00fd by se mohl st\u00e1t orienta\u010dn\u00edm bodem pro mnoho lid\u00ed a j\u00e1drem pro pravd\u011bpodobnou n\u00e1slednou expanzi do okoln\u00edch zem\u00ed. Jde o\u00a0expansionistick\u00e9 uskupen\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na kultu \u010dir\u00e9ho n\u00e1sil\u00ed. IS je p\u0159\u00edklad, kter\u00fd by mohl zkonsolidovat r\u016fzn\u00e9 skupiny a okruhy. IS je stejn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd jak pro zem\u011b v\u00a0regionu, tak pro Z\u00e1pad, co\u017e uk\u00e1zaly teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky v\u00a0Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak vypad\u00e1 bilance civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed v\u00a0S\u00fdrii ze strany Asada, RF, opozice a IS?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Zde je t\u0159eba upozornit na n\u011bkolik moment\u016f. Za prv\u00e9 je shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed hodnov\u011brn\u00fdch informac\u00ed velice obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. V\u00a0prvn\u00ed f\u00e1zi, kdy Asadovy jednotky za\u010daly pou\u017e\u00edvat t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zbran\u011b, m\u011bl naprostou v\u011bt\u0161inu ob\u011bt\u00ed na sv\u011bdom\u00ed re\u017eim. Kdy\u017e povstalci p\u0159i\u0161li by\u0165 o\u00a0pouh\u00e9 zd\u00e1n\u00ed jednotn\u00e9ho velen\u00ed, za\u010dalo mnoho skupin jednat na vlastn\u00ed triko a po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed boj\u016f vzrostl. Zde ji\u017e bylo ov\u0161em obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zjistit, kdo konkr\u00e9tn\u011b m\u00e1 tyto ob\u011bti na sv\u011bdom\u00ed. Nakonec, za t\u0159et\u00ed, IS operuje p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v\u00a0nejm\u00e9n\u011b zalidn\u011bn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b. Pr\u00e1v\u011b IS v\u0161ak praktikoval hromadn\u00e9 demonstrativn\u00ed popravy a tyto akce pochopiteln\u011b poutaly velkou pozornost. Podle organizac\u00ed na ochranu pr\u00e1va je v\u011bt\u0161ina ob\u011bt\u00ed d\u016fsledkem bojov\u00fdch operac\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00ed arm\u00e1dou a jej\u00edmi spojenci, pod\u00edl r\u016fzn\u00fdch uskupen\u00ed a stran na po\u010dtech posti\u017een\u00fdch se v\u0161ak za dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu m\u011bnil.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Ohro\u017euje IS n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem i Ukrajinu?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>P\u0159\u00edmo ne. Na Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u00ed vhodn\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na francouzsk\u00e9 atent\u00e1ty, ty nesp\u00e1chal \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd abstraktn\u00ed IS, ale lid\u00e9 z\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u011bstsk\u00e9 \u010dtvrti\u00a0\u2013 s\u00a0ust\u00e1len\u00fdmi n\u00e1zory, \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed mezi lidmi, kte\u0159\u00ed nen\u00e1vid\u011bli svou zemi a sv\u00e9 sousedy. Neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee by na Ukrajin\u011b neexistovali lid\u00e9 propojen\u00ed s\u00a0IS. V\u00ed se minim\u00e1ln\u011b o\u00a0jednom p\u0159\u00edpadu, kdy byl naverbov\u00e1n sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd atent\u00e1tn\u00edk, kter\u00fd \u00fato\u010dil jm\u00e9nem IS v\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku. Tuto rodinu naverbovali v\u00a0Charkov\u011b st\u00e1tn\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Ruska. Znovu v\u0161ak zopakuji, \u017ee k\u00a0\u00fatok\u016fm ve Francii nedo\u0161lo proto, \u017ee by IS m\u011bl v\u016f\u010di t\u00e9to zemi n\u011bjakou zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed averzi. Byly provedeny tam, kde existuj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 postoje, lid\u00e9 a prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Jin\u00e1 v\u011bc je, \u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed zna\u010dky IS se dnes stane dost obl\u00edben\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak zamaskovat svou \u00fa\u010dast. Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee je IS ochoten se hl\u00e1sit k\u00a0\u010demukoli, dokonce i k\u00a0t\u011bm \u00fatok\u016fm, u\u00a0nich\u017e spojitost s\u00a0IS prakticky nelze vysledovat. Tato situace otev\u00edr\u00e1 \u0161irok\u00e9 pole pro manipulace, zejm\u00e9na ze strany rusk\u00fdch tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak byste okomentoval prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA Johna Kerryho ohledn\u011b spojen\u00ed mezi IS a re\u017eimem Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1zi pronik\u00e1n\u00ed IS z\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku do v\u00fdchodn\u00edch region\u016f S\u00fdrie SAA nikdy nevstupovala s\u00a0t\u00edmto uskupen\u00edm do bojov\u00fdch st\u0159et\u016f.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/kerri.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA John Kerry<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Asad patrn\u011b vyu\u017eil rusk\u00fd princip uplatn\u011bn\u00fd v\u00a0\u010ce\u010densku, kdy v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b m\u011bly b\u00fdt zni\u010deny um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 byly ochotny ke kompromis\u016fm a ze strany vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za plnohodnotn\u00e9 partnery. \u00da\u0159ady RF p\u0159ece v\u00a0\u010ce\u010densku tak\u00e9 likvidovaly um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 s\u00edly, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vykl\u00edzely p\u016fsobi\u0161t\u011b pro radik\u00e1ln\u00ed extr\u00e9misty. Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee Asad vyu\u017eil stejn\u00fd postup. V\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zv\u011brstvy, kter\u00e9 IS pravideln\u011b vys\u00edlal na sv\u00fdch kan\u00e1lech, m\u011bl Asad p\u016fsobit jako men\u0161\u00ed zlo. K\u00a0tomu bylo v\u0161ak zapot\u0159eb\u00ed umo\u017enit IS, aby dos\u00e1hl alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Nav\u00edc od prvn\u00edch dn\u016f rusk\u00e9ho z\u00e1sahu pozorovatel\u00e9 zaznamenali podivnou \u010dasovou shodu mezi vojensk\u00fdmi operacemi SAA se spojenci a IS. Rusk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 \u00fatoky m\u00ed\u0159ily na s\u00edly SSA a islamist\u016f nespojen\u00fdch s\u00a0IS, co\u017e umo\u017enilo IS roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it kontrolovan\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, nap\u0159. severn\u011b od Aleppa. Kostru IS, zejm\u00e9na jeho prost\u0159edn\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek, tvo\u0159\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00ed ir\u00e1\u010dt\u00ed profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed voj\u00e1ci a p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, jejich\u017e naprost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina vystudovala vysok\u00e9 \u0161koly v\u00a0SSSR. Kreml m\u00e1 v\u00a0IS \u201esv\u00e9 pozice\u201c. Koment\u00e1to\u0159i se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji klon\u00ed k\u00a0n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee mezi rusk\u00fdmi tajn\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami a minim\u00e1ln\u011b \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed veden\u00ed IS existuje komunikace. Snadn\u00e1 organizace hromadn\u00e9ho odchodu rusk\u00fdch muslim\u016f p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ze Severn\u00edho Kavkazu do syrsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky rovn\u011b\u017e nasv\u011bd\u010duje vysok\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti takov\u00e9ho spojen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>M\u016f\u017ee Putin ofici\u00e1ln\u011b obvinit Kyjev z\u00a0podpory IS? Jak by to ohrozilo n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed postaven\u00ed Ukrajiny?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Ano, m\u016f\u017ee. Dopad na na\u0161i situaci z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, jak kvalitn\u011b bude zhotoven falzifik\u00e1t. A tud\u00ed\u017e kolik \u010dasu si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 jeho odhalen\u00ed. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, jak dnes vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed podvrhy na Lubjance, v\u00a0Jasen\u011bvu aj., lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee jeho kvalita bude dost n\u00edzk\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalice<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Na 70.\u00a0Valn\u00e9m shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OSN Putin vyzval k\u00a0vytvo\u0159en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalice proti IS podle vzoru t\u00e9 protihitlerovsk\u00e9. Jakou motivaci m\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Motivaci m\u00e1 Putin v\u017edy stejnou, a sice udr\u017eet se u\u00a0moci. Vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed se k\u00a0tomu r\u016fzn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje. V\u00a0Kremlu pokl\u00e1daj\u00ed \u010dlenstv\u00ed zem\u011b v\u00a0alianci v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo rozhodovat za ostatn\u00ed, za jeden z\u00a0takov\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f. Takto archaick\u00fd zp\u016fsob \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch kontroverz\u00ed by m\u011bl podle Kremlu slou\u017eit jako pojistka p\u0159ed zasahov\u00e1n\u00edm do vnit\u0159n\u00edch rusk\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN:\u00a0<\/strong>Zv\u00fd\u0161ily<em> se \u0161ance na vznik t\u00e9to koalice po pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00fdch teroristick\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch z\u00a013.\u00a0listopadu?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>M\u00e1me co d\u011blat se snahou Hollanda zachr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 volby, uklidnit voli\u010de a uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee je schopen vytvo\u0159it maxim\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161irokou koalici. M\u00e1me tu tak\u00e9 pochopen\u00ed, \u017ee Francie nen\u00ed schopna prov\u00e9st operaci v\u00a0S\u00fdrii a Ir\u00e1ku sama. Je vid\u011bt snaha o\u00a0vta\u017een\u00ed Ruska do n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed operace. St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed rozpory mezi zainteresovan\u00fdmi stranami ov\u0161em nedovoluj\u00ed tvrdit, \u017ee vznikne pr\u00e1v\u011b plnohodnotn\u00e1 koalice. Nejsp\u00ed\u0161e bude deklarov\u00e1na ur\u010dit\u00e1 koordinace.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Je Ukrajina t\u00edmto hypotetick\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em (vznik koalice) n\u011bjak ohro\u017eena?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Ano, je. V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bychom se m\u011bli vzd\u00e1t nebo p\u0159ezkoumat cel\u00fd form\u00e1t tzv. m\u00edrov\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed (<em>na Donbasu\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>). Znamenalo by to de facto rezignaci na normandsk\u00fd form\u00e1t a tedy i na Minsk.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky m\u00e1 zah\u00e1jen\u00ed pozemn\u00ed operace z\u00e1padn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f, Turecka nebo RF proti IS?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Pozemn\u00ed operace je nezbytn\u00e1, jinak se IS porazit ned\u00e1\u00a0\u2013 to se dnes obecn\u011b uzn\u00e1v\u00e1. Nikomu se do n\u00ed v\u0161ak nechce.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 411px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/syryya-594x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"401\" height=\"243\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Devastace v Aleppu, S\u00fdrie \/ Foto: Ibrahim Ebu Leys \/ Anadolu Agency<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>USA budou vyu\u017e\u00edvat s\u00edly spojenc\u016f, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kurdsk\u00e9 odd\u00edly pod velen\u00edm americk\u00fdch d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016f s\u00a0lok\u00e1ln\u00edm nasazov\u00e1n\u00edm zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edch jednotek. Rusov\u00e9 ji\u017e dnes maj\u00ed pozemn\u00ed kontingent a budou jeho po\u010det v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b navy\u0161ovat. Ot\u00e1zka je patrn\u011b v\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jednotky nebudou p\u0159\u00edmo pod\u0159\u00edzeny rusk\u00fdm voj\u00e1k\u016fm. SAA je sice dost slab\u00e1, je to v\u0161ak jedin\u00e1 s\u00edla, kter\u00e9 budou Rusov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edmo velet, co\u017e je bude zase nutit k\u00a0navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00edch pozemn\u00edch vojsk. M\u016f\u017ee vzniknout situace, kdy se v\u00a0Kremlu rozhodne, \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 tak u\u010dinit co nejd\u0159\u00edve. Vznikne iluze, \u017ee k\u00fd\u017een\u00fd c\u00edl je ji\u017e bl\u00edzko, jen to chce dal\u0161\u00ed investice. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee tyto vyhl\u00eddky jsou docela re\u00e1ln\u00e9 a \u017ee je docela mo\u017en\u00e1 pozemn\u00ed operace, kdy se budou strany sna\u017eit navz\u00e1jem p\u0159edstihnout. Nebo dokonce \u017ee se jedna ze stran (USA) bude tv\u00e1\u0159it, \u017ee by tu druhou p\u0159edstihnout mohla.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Dal by se \u010dekat kladn\u00fd posun na Krymu a Donbasu, kdyby Kreml uv\u00edzl v\u00a0S\u00fdrii?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edmo ne. Na situaci na front\u011b bude m\u00edt vliv rozlo\u017een\u00ed sil v\u00a0Moskv\u011b. Kdyby syrsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 vedla k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed u\u00a0elit a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed se za\u010dalo ot\u0159\u00e1sat, odrazilo by se to re\u00e1ln\u011b na situaci na front\u011b.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Origin\u00e1l publikov\u00e1n dne 20.\u00a0listopadu 2015<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kreml otev\u0159en\u011b podporoval re\u017eim Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada ji\u017e od po\u010d\u00e1tku ozbrojen\u00e9ho konfliktu v\u00a0S\u00fdrii v\u00a0roce 2011. Po\u010dty civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":78,"featured_media":933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,523,1,516,517],"tags":[386,479,447,484,331,485,330,481,369,480,329,482,483],"class_list":["post-932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktuality","category-analytics","category-hlavni-zpravy","category-all-news","category-syria","tag-basar-asad","tag-centrum-pro-blizkovychodni-studia","tag-dzihad","tag-hizballah","tag-isis","tag-islamiste","tag-islamsky-stat","tag-koalice","tag-rusko","tag-serhij-danylov","tag-syrie","tag-syrska-arabska-armada","tag-syrska-svobodna-armada"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Koalice mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem proti ISIS je nejist\u00e1. Rozhovor se Serhijem Danylovem - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/koalice-mezi-ruskem-a-zapadem-proti-isis-je-nejista-rozhovor-se-serhijem-danylovem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Koalice mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem proti ISIS je nejist\u00e1. Rozhovor se Serhijem Danylovem - InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kreml otev\u0159en\u011b podporoval re\u017eim Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada ji\u017e od po\u010d\u00e1tku ozbrojen\u00e9ho konfliktu v\u00a0S\u00fdrii v\u00a0roce 2011. Po\u010dty civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/koalice-mezi-ruskem-a-zapadem-proti-isis-je-nejista-rozhovor-se-serhijem-danylovem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"InformNapalm.org (\u010ce\u0161tina)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-11-30T20:39:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-12-16T10:46:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2015\/11\/Nad-koalic-mezi-Ruskem-a-Z-padem-proti-ISIS-se-vzn-otazn-k.-Rozhovor-se-Serhijem-Danylovem.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"svatoslav\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"svatoslav\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"13 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/koalice-mezi-ruskem-a-zapadem-proti-isis-je-nejista-rozhovor-se-serhijem-danylovem\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/koalice-mezi-ruskem-a-zapadem-proti-isis-je-nejista-rozhovor-se-serhijem-danylovem\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"svatoslav\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/#\/schema\/person\/df2cf86bd5e35ae01a82d1108d3c5f51\"},\"headline\":\"Koalice mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem proti ISIS je nejist\u00e1. 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Po\u010dty civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed v\u00e1lky prudce stouply pot\u00e9, co RF zah\u00e1jila operaci Letecko-kosmick\u00fdch sil na podporu syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed arm\u00e1dy. A\u017e doned\u00e1vna m\u011bly z\u00e1padn\u00ed st\u00e1ty k\u00a0\u00fa\u010dasti RF na syrsk\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech skeptick\u00fd postoj. Teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu v\u00a0Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei ze dne 13.\u00a011.\u00a02015 zv\u00fd\u0161ily \u0161anci, \u017ee Putin bude v\u00a0Bruselu a Washingtonu vysly\u0161en. O\u00a0v\u00e1lce v\u00a0S\u00fdrii a jej\u00edch dopadech na Ukrajinu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dobrovolnick\u00e1 komunita <strong>InformNapalm <\/strong>pohovo\u0159ila se z\u00e1stupcem \u0159editele Centra pro bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed studia <strong>Serhijem Danylovem<\/strong>.<\/em><!--more-->\r\n\r\n<strong>Strany konfliktu<\/strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Kdo proti komu v\u00a0S\u00fdrii v\u00e1l\u010d\u00ed?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Situace pro\u0161la v\u00fdrazn\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami od roku 2012, kdy konflikt m\u011bl pouze dv\u011b strany, a sice opozici zastoupenou Svobodnou syrskou arm\u00e1dou (SSA), jej\u00ed\u017e kostru tvo\u0159ili p\u0159eb\u011bhl\u00edci ze Syrsk\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (SAA), a vl\u00e1dn\u00ed s\u00edly, tedy samotn\u00e1 Syrsk\u00e1 arabsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da. Ji\u017e v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b 2012 se za\u010dal konflikt internacionalizovat. Asadova vl\u00e1da za\u010dala, nejd\u0159\u00edve v\u00a0omezen\u00e9m rozsahu a epizodicky, zapojovat Hizball\u00e1h <em>(libanonsk\u00e9 \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 vojensko-politick\u00e9 uskupen\u00ed kontrolovan\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nem\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>).\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"\" align=\"alignleft\" width=\"400\"]<img class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/hezbolla-v-syryy.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"263\" \/> Hizball\u00e1h v S\u00fdrii[\/caption]\r\n\r\nPot\u00e9 co SSA utrp\u011bla v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, za\u010daly rychle r\u016fst odd\u00edly islamist\u016f. P\u0159ed rusk\u00fdm vp\u00e1dem do S\u00fdrie zde podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch informac\u00ed bojovalo a\u017e sto r\u016fzn\u00fdch islamistick\u00fdch skupin, SSA, jednotky kurdsk\u00e9 domobrany na severu zem\u011b, SAA, Hizball\u00e1h a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jednotky SSIR (<em>Sboru str\u00e1\u017ec\u016f isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revoluce\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>). P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm posledn\u00ed rok a p\u016fl ji\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 stabiln\u00ed protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice neexistovala. Povstaleck\u00e9 odd\u00edly \u010dasto nebojovaly tolik proti vl\u00e1dn\u00edm slo\u017ek\u00e1m, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e mezi sebou. Mohli bychom vy\u010dlenit t\u0159i skupiny, kter\u00e9 alespo\u0148 tvo\u0159\u00ed jak\u00e9si aliance.\r\n\r\nRusk\u00fd vp\u00e1d zaktivizoval konsolidaci povstalc\u016f. \u010c\u00e1st um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fdch islamist\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed podle \u0159ady informac\u00ed p\u016fsob\u00ed za podpory Turecka a zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, za\u010dala sv\u00e9 operace koordinovat s\u00a0t\u011bmi jednotkami SSA, kter\u00e9 z\u016fstaly bojeschopn\u00e9. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u011b dv\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00e1 uskupen\u00ed, a sice An-Nusra a Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t (IS). An-Nusra se sna\u017e\u00ed na taktick\u00e9 \u00farovni spolupracovat s\u00a0povstaleck\u00fdmi skupinami v\u00a0m\u00edstech boj\u016f, nenavazuje v\u0161ak form\u00e1ln\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed ani aliance. IS vede boj \u00fapln\u011b proti v\u0161em. Nav\u00edc existuj\u00ed rozd\u00edly i v\u00a0r\u00e1mci SSA: jej\u00ed severn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st spolu \u0161patn\u011b komunikuj\u00ed, maj\u00ed odli\u0161n\u00e9 vize budoucnosti, ta severn\u00ed m\u00e1 pov\u011bst um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 s\u00edly, zat\u00edmco ta ji\u017en\u00ed tvrd\u0161\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se Kurd\u016fm poda\u0159ilo za cenu obrovsk\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed ubr\u00e1nit m\u011bsto Kob\u00e1ni, za\u010dali b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1ni jako samostatn\u00e1 s\u00edla, nez\u00e1visl\u00e1 na ostatn\u00edch opozi\u010dn\u00edch skupin\u00e1ch a frakc\u00edch.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak\u00e9 jsou nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy z\u00a0front?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Hlavn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vou z\u00a0posledn\u00edch dn\u016f je deblokace leti\u0161t\u011b u\u00a0Aleppa jednotkami SAA. Sou\u010dasn\u011b sice prob\u00edhalo d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed Lat\u00e1kie (<em>m\u011bsto kontrolovan\u00e9 Asadem, kde m\u00e1 z\u00e1kladnu skupina rusk\u00e9ho letectva\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>), rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia o\u00a0tom v\u0161ak poml\u010dela. Vojen\u0161t\u00ed experti (mezi n\u011b\u017e j\u00e1 nepat\u0159\u00edm) hodnot\u00ed pokrok b\u011bhem m\u011bs\u00edce boj\u016f za \u00fa\u010dasti rusk\u00e9ho letectva jako pom\u011brn\u011b bezv\u00fdznamn\u00fd pro SAA.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Kter\u00e9 ze stran syrsk\u00e9ho konfliktu podporuje Z\u00e1pad?<\/em>\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"\" align=\"alignleft\" width=\"400\"]<img class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/GettyImages-493848380-640x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" \/> Povstalci pod vlajkou SSA[\/caption]\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Svobodnou syrskou arm\u00e1du, \u010d\u00e1st islamist\u016f a kurdskou koalici, kter\u00e1 form\u00e1ln\u011b zahrnuje i z\u00e1stupce dal\u0161\u00edch syrsk\u00fdch etnokonfesn\u00edch skupin. O\u00a0islamistech existuje dost rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 tabulka, kde je ka\u017ed\u00e1 z\u00a0organizac\u00ed hodnocena na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u0159ady krit\u00e9ri\u00ed. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee islamistick\u00fdch organizac\u00ed jsou stovky a v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00a0nich nav\u00edc existuje teprve kr\u00e1tce, jde o\u00a0pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dnou pr\u00e1ci vy\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed neust\u00e1l\u00fd update \u00fadaj\u016f. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 organizace je pe\u010dliv\u011b zat\u0159\u00edd\u011bna podle mnoha krit\u00e9ri\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na podle intenzity zapojen\u00ed do ur\u010dit\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed, intenzity kontakt\u016f s\u00a0nimi, informac\u00ed o\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadech, kdy se rozhodovalo samostatn\u011b atd. Nav\u00edc existuj\u00ed jednotky, kter\u00e9 vytvo\u0159ila p\u0159\u00edmo CIA nebo Pentagon. Osazenstvo t\u011bchto jednotek absolvovalo p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdcvik, \u0161kolen\u00ed a koordinaci, a zat\u00edmco program Pentagonu selhal, CIA se poda\u0159ilo vytvo\u0159it \u0159adu bojeschopn\u00fdch odd\u00edl\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proti nim m\u00ed\u0159ily prvn\u00ed \u00fatoky rusk\u00e9ho letectva v\u00a0S\u00fdrii. Je nutno vyzdvihnout, \u017ee tyto jednotky vznikly v\u00fdlu\u010dn\u011b za \u00fa\u010delem boje proti IS.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Pro\u010d jsou pro Z\u00e1pad n\u011bkter\u00e1 islamistick\u00e1 uskupen\u00ed p\u0159ijateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e re\u017eim Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Asad vzbuzuje jednozna\u010dnou asociaci s\u00a0Hizball\u00e1hem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed role ve v\u00e1lce v\u00a0podstat\u011b ji\u017e d\u00e1vno pat\u0159\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u011bmto s\u00edl\u00e1m. Hizball\u00e1h je ofici\u00e1ln\u011b teroristickou organizac\u00ed. P\u0159idat se na jej\u00ed stranu znamen\u00e1 poh\u0159b\u00edt sv\u00e9 vztahy se sunnitsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Nav\u00edc pr\u00e1v\u011b Asadova politika zp\u016fsobila uprchlick\u00e9 tsunami do Evropy a vznik IS na v\u00fdchod\u011b S\u00fdrie. Asad nen\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016f, ale jejich zdrojem.\r\n\r\n<strong>Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t<\/strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>IN:\u00a0<\/strong>V<em>\u00a0\u010dem je IS specifick\u00fd mezi ostatn\u00edmi stranami konfliktu v\u00a0S\u00fdrii?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t bezesporu p\u0159edstavuje novou v\u00fdvojovou etapu radik\u00e1ln\u00edch islamistick\u00fdch d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00fdch hnut\u00ed. Je vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako hrozba kv\u016fli inovativn\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed kampani zalo\u017een\u00e9 na uk\u00e1zk\u00e1ch n\u00e1sil\u00ed a na estetizaci n\u00e1sil\u00ed.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"\" align=\"alignleft\" width=\"400\"]<img class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/ISIS-634x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"227\" \/> IS \u2013 \u201cNov\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zas\u00e9vat strach\u201d \/ Foto: Alalam.ir[\/caption]\r\n\r\nVelk\u00e9 znepokojen\u00ed bud\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 verbovac\u00ed strategie, a to jak v\u00a0r\u00e1mci regionu, tak v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch. Schopnost mobilizovat a motivovat bojovn\u00edky k\u00a0vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed sebevra\u017eedn\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f jako t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 hlavn\u00ed slo\u017eky vojensk\u00e9 taktiky. Schopnost konsolidovat, udr\u017eovat a spravovat obsazen\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed, vytv\u00e1\u0159et n\u011bco jako civiln\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady. V\u00a0situaci, kdy st\u00e1tn\u00ed instituce v\u00a0S\u00fdrii a Ir\u00e1ku pro\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed krizi, IS celkem dok\u00e1zal i bez z\u00e1sahu zven\u010d\u00ed vytvo\u0159it stabiln\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed \u00fatvar, kter\u00fd by se mohl st\u00e1t orienta\u010dn\u00edm bodem pro mnoho lid\u00ed a j\u00e1drem pro pravd\u011bpodobnou n\u00e1slednou expanzi do okoln\u00edch zem\u00ed. Jde o\u00a0expansionistick\u00e9 uskupen\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na kultu \u010dir\u00e9ho n\u00e1sil\u00ed. IS je p\u0159\u00edklad, kter\u00fd by mohl zkonsolidovat r\u016fzn\u00e9 skupiny a okruhy. IS je stejn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd jak pro zem\u011b v\u00a0regionu, tak pro Z\u00e1pad, co\u017e uk\u00e1zaly teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky v\u00a0Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak vypad\u00e1 bilance civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed v\u00a0S\u00fdrii ze strany Asada, RF, opozice a IS?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Zde je t\u0159eba upozornit na n\u011bkolik moment\u016f. Za prv\u00e9 je shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed hodnov\u011brn\u00fdch informac\u00ed velice obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. V\u00a0prvn\u00ed f\u00e1zi, kdy Asadovy jednotky za\u010daly pou\u017e\u00edvat t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zbran\u011b, m\u011bl naprostou v\u011bt\u0161inu ob\u011bt\u00ed na sv\u011bdom\u00ed re\u017eim. Kdy\u017e povstalci p\u0159i\u0161li by\u0165 o\u00a0pouh\u00e9 zd\u00e1n\u00ed jednotn\u00e9ho velen\u00ed, za\u010dalo mnoho skupin jednat na vlastn\u00ed triko a po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed boj\u016f vzrostl. Zde ji\u017e bylo ov\u0161em obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zjistit, kdo konkr\u00e9tn\u011b m\u00e1 tyto ob\u011bti na sv\u011bdom\u00ed. Nakonec, za t\u0159et\u00ed, IS operuje p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v\u00a0nejm\u00e9n\u011b zalidn\u011bn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b. Pr\u00e1v\u011b IS v\u0161ak praktikoval hromadn\u00e9 demonstrativn\u00ed popravy a tyto akce pochopiteln\u011b poutaly velkou pozornost. Podle organizac\u00ed na ochranu pr\u00e1va je v\u011bt\u0161ina ob\u011bt\u00ed d\u016fsledkem bojov\u00fdch operac\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00ed arm\u00e1dou a jej\u00edmi spojenci, pod\u00edl r\u016fzn\u00fdch uskupen\u00ed a stran na po\u010dtech posti\u017een\u00fdch se v\u0161ak za dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu m\u011bnil.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Ohro\u017euje IS n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem i Ukrajinu?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>P\u0159\u00edmo ne. Na Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u00ed vhodn\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na francouzsk\u00e9 atent\u00e1ty, ty nesp\u00e1chal \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd abstraktn\u00ed IS, ale lid\u00e9 z\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u011bstsk\u00e9 \u010dtvrti\u00a0\u2013 s\u00a0ust\u00e1len\u00fdmi n\u00e1zory, \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed mezi lidmi, kte\u0159\u00ed nen\u00e1vid\u011bli svou zemi a sv\u00e9 sousedy. Neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee by na Ukrajin\u011b neexistovali lid\u00e9 propojen\u00ed s\u00a0IS. V\u00ed se minim\u00e1ln\u011b o\u00a0jednom p\u0159\u00edpadu, kdy byl naverbov\u00e1n sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd atent\u00e1tn\u00edk, kter\u00fd \u00fato\u010dil jm\u00e9nem IS v\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku. Tuto rodinu naverbovali v\u00a0Charkov\u011b st\u00e1tn\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Ruska. Znovu v\u0161ak zopakuji, \u017ee k\u00a0\u00fatok\u016fm ve Francii nedo\u0161lo proto, \u017ee by IS m\u011bl v\u016f\u010di t\u00e9to zemi n\u011bjakou zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed averzi. Byly provedeny tam, kde existuj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 postoje, lid\u00e9 a prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Jin\u00e1 v\u011bc je, \u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed zna\u010dky IS se dnes stane dost obl\u00edben\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak zamaskovat svou \u00fa\u010dast. Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee je IS ochoten se hl\u00e1sit k\u00a0\u010demukoli, dokonce i k\u00a0t\u011bm \u00fatok\u016fm, u\u00a0nich\u017e spojitost s\u00a0IS prakticky nelze vysledovat. Tato situace otev\u00edr\u00e1 \u0161irok\u00e9 pole pro manipulace, zejm\u00e9na ze strany rusk\u00fdch tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak byste okomentoval prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA Johna Kerryho ohledn\u011b spojen\u00ed mezi IS a re\u017eimem Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1zi pronik\u00e1n\u00ed IS z\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku do v\u00fdchodn\u00edch region\u016f S\u00fdrie SAA nikdy nevstupovala s\u00a0t\u00edmto uskupen\u00edm do bojov\u00fdch st\u0159et\u016f.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"\" align=\"alignleft\" width=\"400\"]<img class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/kerri.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" \/> <em>Ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA John Kerry<\/em>[\/caption]\r\n\r\nAsad patrn\u011b vyu\u017eil rusk\u00fd princip uplatn\u011bn\u00fd v\u00a0\u010ce\u010densku, kdy v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b m\u011bly b\u00fdt zni\u010deny um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 byly ochotny ke kompromis\u016fm a ze strany vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za plnohodnotn\u00e9 partnery. \u00da\u0159ady RF p\u0159ece v\u00a0\u010ce\u010densku tak\u00e9 likvidovaly um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 s\u00edly, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vykl\u00edzely p\u016fsobi\u0161t\u011b pro radik\u00e1ln\u00ed extr\u00e9misty. Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee Asad vyu\u017eil stejn\u00fd postup. V\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zv\u011brstvy, kter\u00e9 IS pravideln\u011b vys\u00edlal na sv\u00fdch kan\u00e1lech, m\u011bl Asad p\u016fsobit jako men\u0161\u00ed zlo. K\u00a0tomu bylo v\u0161ak zapot\u0159eb\u00ed umo\u017enit IS, aby dos\u00e1hl alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Nav\u00edc od prvn\u00edch dn\u016f rusk\u00e9ho z\u00e1sahu pozorovatel\u00e9 zaznamenali podivnou \u010dasovou shodu mezi vojensk\u00fdmi operacemi SAA se spojenci a IS. Rusk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 \u00fatoky m\u00ed\u0159ily na s\u00edly SSA a islamist\u016f nespojen\u00fdch s\u00a0IS, co\u017e umo\u017enilo IS roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it kontrolovan\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, nap\u0159. severn\u011b od Aleppa. Kostru IS, zejm\u00e9na jeho prost\u0159edn\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek, tvo\u0159\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00ed ir\u00e1\u010dt\u00ed profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed voj\u00e1ci a p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, jejich\u017e naprost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina vystudovala vysok\u00e9 \u0161koly v\u00a0SSSR. Kreml m\u00e1 v\u00a0IS \u201esv\u00e9 pozice\u201c. Koment\u00e1to\u0159i se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji klon\u00ed k\u00a0n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee mezi rusk\u00fdmi tajn\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami a minim\u00e1ln\u011b \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed veden\u00ed IS existuje komunikace. Snadn\u00e1 organizace hromadn\u00e9ho odchodu rusk\u00fdch muslim\u016f p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ze Severn\u00edho Kavkazu do syrsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky rovn\u011b\u017e nasv\u011bd\u010duje vysok\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti takov\u00e9ho spojen\u00ed.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>M\u016f\u017ee Putin ofici\u00e1ln\u011b obvinit Kyjev z\u00a0podpory IS? Jak by to ohrozilo n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed postaven\u00ed Ukrajiny?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Ano, m\u016f\u017ee. Dopad na na\u0161i situaci z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, jak kvalitn\u011b bude zhotoven falzifik\u00e1t. A tud\u00ed\u017e kolik \u010dasu si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 jeho odhalen\u00ed. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, jak dnes vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed podvrhy na Lubjance, v\u00a0Jasen\u011bvu aj., lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee jeho kvalita bude dost n\u00edzk\u00e1.\r\n\r\n<strong>Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalice<\/strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Na 70.\u00a0Valn\u00e9m shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OSN Putin vyzval k\u00a0vytvo\u0159en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalice proti IS podle vzoru t\u00e9 protihitlerovsk\u00e9. Jakou motivaci m\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Motivaci m\u00e1 Putin v\u017edy stejnou, a sice udr\u017eet se u\u00a0moci. Vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed se k\u00a0tomu r\u016fzn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje. V\u00a0Kremlu pokl\u00e1daj\u00ed \u010dlenstv\u00ed zem\u011b v\u00a0alianci v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo rozhodovat za ostatn\u00ed, za jeden z\u00a0takov\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f. Takto archaick\u00fd zp\u016fsob \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch kontroverz\u00ed by m\u011bl podle Kremlu slou\u017eit jako pojistka p\u0159ed zasahov\u00e1n\u00edm do vnit\u0159n\u00edch rusk\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN:\u00a0<\/strong>Zv\u00fd\u0161ily<em> se \u0161ance na vznik t\u00e9to koalice po pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00fdch teroristick\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch z\u00a013.\u00a0listopadu?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>M\u00e1me co d\u011blat se snahou Hollanda zachr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 volby, uklidnit voli\u010de a uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee je schopen vytvo\u0159it maxim\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161irokou koalici. M\u00e1me tu tak\u00e9 pochopen\u00ed, \u017ee Francie nen\u00ed schopna prov\u00e9st operaci v\u00a0S\u00fdrii a Ir\u00e1ku sama. Je vid\u011bt snaha o\u00a0vta\u017een\u00ed Ruska do n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed operace. St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed rozpory mezi zainteresovan\u00fdmi stranami ov\u0161em nedovoluj\u00ed tvrdit, \u017ee vznikne pr\u00e1v\u011b plnohodnotn\u00e1 koalice. Nejsp\u00ed\u0161e bude deklarov\u00e1na ur\u010dit\u00e1 koordinace.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Je Ukrajina t\u00edmto hypotetick\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em (vznik koalice) n\u011bjak ohro\u017eena?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Ano, je. V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bychom se m\u011bli vzd\u00e1t nebo p\u0159ezkoumat cel\u00fd form\u00e1t tzv. m\u00edrov\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed (<em>na Donbasu\u00a0\u2013 <strong>IN<\/strong><\/em>). Znamenalo by to de facto rezignaci na normandsk\u00fd form\u00e1t a tedy i na Minsk.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Jak\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky m\u00e1 zah\u00e1jen\u00ed pozemn\u00ed operace z\u00e1padn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f, Turecka nebo RF proti IS?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Pozemn\u00ed operace je nezbytn\u00e1, jinak se IS porazit ned\u00e1\u00a0\u2013 to se dnes obecn\u011b uzn\u00e1v\u00e1. Nikomu se do n\u00ed v\u0161ak nechce.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"\" align=\"alignleft\" width=\"401\"]<img class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/syryya-594x360.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"401\" height=\"243\" \/> <em>Devastace v Aleppu, S\u00fdrie \/ Foto: Ibrahim Ebu Leys \/ Anadolu Agency<\/em>[\/caption]\r\n\r\nUSA budou vyu\u017e\u00edvat s\u00edly spojenc\u016f, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kurdsk\u00e9 odd\u00edly pod velen\u00edm americk\u00fdch d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016f s\u00a0lok\u00e1ln\u00edm nasazov\u00e1n\u00edm zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edch jednotek. Rusov\u00e9 ji\u017e dnes maj\u00ed pozemn\u00ed kontingent a budou jeho po\u010det v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b navy\u0161ovat. Ot\u00e1zka je patrn\u011b v\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jednotky nebudou p\u0159\u00edmo pod\u0159\u00edzeny rusk\u00fdm voj\u00e1k\u016fm. SAA je sice dost slab\u00e1, je to v\u0161ak jedin\u00e1 s\u00edla, kter\u00e9 budou Rusov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edmo velet, co\u017e je bude zase nutit k\u00a0navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00edch pozemn\u00edch vojsk. M\u016f\u017ee vzniknout situace, kdy se v\u00a0Kremlu rozhodne, \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 tak u\u010dinit co nejd\u0159\u00edve. Vznikne iluze, \u017ee k\u00fd\u017een\u00fd c\u00edl je ji\u017e bl\u00edzko, jen to chce dal\u0161\u00ed investice. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee tyto vyhl\u00eddky jsou docela re\u00e1ln\u00e9 a \u017ee je docela mo\u017en\u00e1 pozemn\u00ed operace, kdy se budou strany sna\u017eit navz\u00e1jem p\u0159edstihnout. Nebo dokonce \u017ee se jedna ze stran (USA) bude tv\u00e1\u0159it, \u017ee by tu druhou p\u0159edstihnout mohla.\r\n\r\n<strong>IN: <\/strong><em>Dal by se \u010dekat kladn\u00fd posun na Krymu a Donbasu, kdyby Kreml uv\u00edzl v\u00a0S\u00fdrii?<\/em>\r\n\r\n<strong>S. Danylov: <\/strong>Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edmo ne. Na situaci na front\u011b bude m\u00edt vliv rozlo\u017een\u00ed sil v\u00a0Moskv\u011b. Kdyby syrsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 vedla k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed u\u00a0elit a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed se za\u010dalo ot\u0159\u00e1sat, odrazilo by se to re\u00e1ln\u011b na situaci na front\u011b.\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\nOrigin\u00e1l publikov\u00e1n dne 20.\u00a0listopadu 2015\r\n\r\nP\u0159eklad: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/scyhol\" target=\"_blank\">Svatoslav \u0160\u010dyhol<\/a>","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/78"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=932"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/932\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":934,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/932\/revisions\/934"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}