{"id":9430,"date":"2021-09-16T19:10:28","date_gmt":"2021-09-16T19:10:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=9430"},"modified":"2021-09-27T19:18:11","modified_gmt":"2021-09-27T19:18:11","slug":"znamky-hybridnich-a-informacnich-provokaci-na-ukrajinsko-beloruskych-hranicich-komu-to-prospeje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/znamky-hybridnich-a-informacnich-provokaci-na-ukrajinsko-beloruskych-hranicich-komu-to-prospeje\/","title":{"rendered":"Zn\u00e1mky hybridn\u00edch a informa\u010dn\u00edch provokac\u00ed na ukrajinsko-b\u011blorusk\u00fdch hranic\u00edch. Komu to prosp\u011bje?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jak se celkem dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, v\u00a0r\u00e1mci aktivn\u00ed f\u00e1ze rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch man\u00e9vr\u016f Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021, kter\u00e9 se konaly na 9\u00a0rusk\u00fdch a 5\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00fdch cvi\u010di\u0161t\u00edch<\/a>, p\u0159e\u0161la B\u011blorusk\u00e1 republika, patrn\u011b z\u00a0pod\u00e1n\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace, k\u00a0hybridn\u00edm informa\u010dn\u00edm provokac\u00edm na hranic\u00edch s\u00a0Ukrajinou.<\/p>\n

15. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed prohl\u00e1sil Pohrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdbor B\u011bloruska (archiv<\/a>), \u017ee \u00fadajn\u011b do\u0161lo k\u00a0ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho hrani\u010dn\u00edho sloupu z\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Tento incident se podle b\u011blorusk\u00fdch pohrani\u010dn\u00edk\u016f m\u011bl odehr\u00e1t 11.\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed na \u00faseku v\u00a0p\u016fsobnosti Pinsk\u00e9ho pohrani\u010dn\u00edho odd\u00edlu. Uv\u00e1d\u00ed se, \u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed znak byl po\u0161kozen v\u00fdst\u0159elem z\u00a0loveck\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Ke zpr\u00e1v\u011b byla p\u0159ipojena v\u00fdmluvn\u00e1 fotka.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Provokace p\u0159i vojensk\u00e9m cvi\u010den\u00ed, nebo cvi\u010dn\u00e1 provokace?<\/h2>\n

Za\u010dteme-li se do podrobnost\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, p\u016fsob\u00ed samotn\u00fd incident na hranic\u00edch jako malichern\u00fd v\u00fdtr\u017enick\u00fd kousek, hrani\u010dn\u00ed znak toti\u017e nebyl zasa\u017een z\u00a0bojov\u00e9, ale z\u00a0loveck\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Nav\u00edc se nev\u00ed, zda k\u00a0tomu do\u0161lo z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b, nebo jen n\u00e1hodou. Doba a m\u00edsto incidentu v\u0161ak docela koreluje s\u00a0kon\u00e1n\u00edm vojensk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed, kam dorazily zejm\u00e9na i ru\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci z\u00a0jednotek, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e byly p\u0159isti\u017eeny p\u0159i \u00fa\u010dasti na hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 agresi proti Ukrajin\u011b. Mezi tyto jednotky pat\u0159\u00ed zejm\u00e9na person\u00e1l 76.\u00a0gardov\u00e9 v\u00fdsadkov\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 divize Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil RF (vojensk\u00fd \u00fatvar \u010d.\u00a007264<\/a>), kter\u00fd od 10.\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vedl rekognoskaci ter\u00e9nu a nacvi\u010doval \u00fakoly na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Dost provokativn\u011b a neodvolateln\u011b p\u016fsob\u00ed tak\u00e9 ok\u00e1zal\u00fd titulek zpr\u00e1vy na ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm webu Pohrani\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdboru B\u011bloruska:
\n\u201eB\u011blorusk\u00fd hrani\u010dn\u00ed sloup ost\u0159elov\u00e1n z\u00a0\u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny\u201c<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee po\u0161kozen\u00ed sloupu zjistili b\u011bloru\u0161t\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00edci z\u00a0hl\u00eddky Svary\u0148<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia tuto zpr\u00e1vu z\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho webu Pohrani\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdboru B\u011bloruska zcela o\u010dek\u00e1van\u011b p\u0159evzala a za\u010dala ji ve velk\u00e9m \u0161\u00ed\u0159it.<\/p>\n

Je v\u00a0tom c\u00edtit um\u011bl\u00e1 snaha o\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9 strany. Nav\u00edc ukrajinsk\u00e1 strana ozn\u00e1mila d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 detaily, o\u00a0nich\u017e b\u011blorusk\u00e1 strana z\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu rozhodla, \u017ee je ve sv\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b vynech\u00e1.<\/p>\n

16. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed byla tato informa\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1minka d\u00e1le pos\u00edlena tak\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi od vy\u0161et\u0159ovac\u00edho v\u00fdboru B\u011blorusk\u00e9 republiky. Rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia tyto \u00fadaje \u0161\u00ed\u0159ila d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159e St\u00e1tn\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eby Ukrajiny<\/h2>\n

Mluv\u010d\u00ed St\u00e1tn\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eby Ukrajiny Andrij Dem\u010denko v\u00a0koment\u00e1\u0159i pro vyd\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajinsk\u00e1 pravda uvedl<\/a>, \u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti zpozorovala po\u0161kozen\u00fd hrani\u010dn\u00ed sloup na hranic\u00edch s\u00a0B\u011bloruskem pohrani\u010dn\u00ed sm\u011bna Luck\u00e9ho odd\u00edlu St\u00e1tn\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eby Ukrajiny. O\u00a0t\u00e9to situaci byli neprodlen\u011b vyrozum\u011bni b\u011bloru\u0161t\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00edci <\/strong>a p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci policie Ukrajiny. Charakter po\u0161kozen\u00ed nasv\u011bd\u010doval mo\u017en\u00e9mu pou\u017eit\u00ed loveck\u00e9 pu\u0161ky.<\/p>\n

\u201ePovaha ter\u00e9nu, kter\u00fd je tu ba\u017einat\u00fd a ke\u0159ovit\u00fd, znemo\u017e\u0148uje p\u011b\u0161\u00ed pohyb osob v\u00a0t\u011bchto m\u00edstech, u\u00a0hrani\u010dn\u00edho sloupu nebyly zji\u0161t\u011bny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky pobytu osob. Sloup se v\u0161ak nach\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00a0bl\u00edzkosti kan\u00e1lu, kter\u00fd propojuje zdej\u0161\u00ed jezera, nen\u00ed tedy vylou\u010deno, \u017ee po\u0161kozen\u00ed mohli zp\u016fsobit naru\u0161itel\u00e9 hranic, kte\u0159\u00ed tu proplouvali na \u010dlunu\u2026 P\u0159i prov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0ter\u00e9nu se nena\u0161ly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00e9 n\u00e1bojnice k\u00a0loveck\u00e9 zbrani. S\u00a0b\u011bloruskou stranou prob\u011bhla pohrani\u010dn\u00ed zastupitelsk\u00e1 sch\u016fzka. Hled\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch osob trv\u00e1. P\u0159i sch\u016fzce nevznesla b\u011blorusk\u00e1 strana v\u016f\u010di St\u00e1tn\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b Ukrajiny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdhrady ani obvin\u011bn\u00ed<\/em>\u201c, uvedl Andrij Dem\u010denko.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na mapu, m\u016f\u017eeme na tomto \u00faseku hranice skute\u010dn\u011b zaznamenat dost rozv\u011btvenou soustavu vodn\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f, kter\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed b\u011blorusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 pohrani\u010d\u00ed, naru\u0161itel\u00e9 se tedy skute\u010dn\u011b mohli dostat sem nepozorovan\u011b na \u010dlunu, aby nezanechali stopy. O\u00a0tom v\u0161ak b\u011blorusk\u00e1 strana z\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu poml\u010dela.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Kdo v\u0161ak pot\u0159ebuje se tak d\u016fkladn\u011b p\u0159ipravovat na provokaci a nav\u00edc ji tak um\u011ble informa\u010dn\u011b nafouknout prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm ok\u00e1zal\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy na ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed webu Pohrani\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdboru B\u011bloruska?<\/p>\n

Na pozad\u00ed rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed nezazn\u00edvaj\u00ed provokativn\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b poprv\u00e9<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy bychom samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nemuseli br\u00e1t v\u016fbec v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, neb\u00fdt skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee zazn\u00edvaj\u00ed u\u017e pokolik\u00e1t\u00e9 v\u00a0situaci prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed aktivn\u00ed f\u00e1ze rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku, \u017ee p\u0159ed 4\u00a0lety, v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2017 se konalo obdobn\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u00e9 rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017. Anal\u00fdzu t\u011bchto man\u00e9vr\u016f tehdy zpracovala b\u011blorusk\u00e1 redakce webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nek mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dobrovolnick\u00e9 komunity InformNapalm a jej\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fredaktor, b\u011blorusk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 Dzjanis Iva\u0161yn (v\u00a0b\u0159eznu 2021 zat\u010den\u00fd b\u011bloruskou KGB<\/a> a v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti dr\u017een\u00fd Luka\u0161enkov\u00fdm re\u017eimem jako politick\u00fd v\u011bze\u0148). Specifikem t\u011bchto man\u00e9vr\u016f byla tak\u00e9 provokativn\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 zazn\u00edvala ze strany b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch slo\u017eek.
\nT\u0159eba tehdej\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk Gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil B\u011blorusk\u00e9 republiky Aleh B\u011blakon\u011bu uvedl, \u017ee v\u00a0r\u00e1mci kon\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed maj\u00ed Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly BR reagovat na mo\u017en\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ohro\u017een\u00ed na severu ukrajinsk\u00e9 Rovensk\u00e9 oblasti ze strany nacionalistick\u00fdch odd\u00edl\u016f Prav\u00e9ho sektoru. Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed tehdy poskytlo Ozbrojen\u00fdm s\u00edl\u00e1m RF opera\u010dn\u00ed prostor k\u00a0jak\u00fdmkoli provokac\u00edm nebo sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00edm. Jak tehdy uv\u00e1d\u011bt Dzjanis Iva\u0161yn ve sv\u00e9m analytick\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku-studii<\/a>, B\u011blorusko bylo zata\u017eeno do ve\u0161ker\u00fdch mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f vojensk\u00fdch avant\u00fdr RF proti Ukrajin\u011b<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Rusko tedy p\u0159i vojensk\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00edch pravideln\u011b prohmat\u00e1v\u00e1 severn\u00ed hranice Ukrajiny z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed, vede nejen vojenskou rekognoskaci ter\u00e9nu, ale tak\u00e9 rekognoskaci informa\u010dn\u00ed a n\u00e1cvik vytvo\u0159en\u00ed form\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1minky, jak\u00e9hosi casus belli, pro p\u0159\u00edpad vyd\u00e1n\u00ed politick\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed o\u00a0otev\u0159en\u00ed druh\u00e9 fronty proti Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Koncem roku 2018 v\u00a0analytick\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/a> pro vyd\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajinsk\u00fd t\u00fdden uvedl zakladatel a dobrovoln\u00edk z\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed komunity InformNapalm Roman Burko, \u017ee mezi hybridn\u00edmi pl\u00e1ny, o\u00a0jejich\u017e realizaci proti Ukrajin\u011b se m\u016f\u017ee RF pokusit, je riziko vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed provokac\u00ed v\u00a0pohrani\u010dn\u00edch p\u00e1smech, zejm\u00e9na na hranic\u00edch mezi Ukrajinou a B\u011bloruskem. Nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00edm a nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ban\u00e1ln\u00ed st\u0159\u00edle\u010dka nebo exploze na hrani\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159echodu. V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b m\u016f\u017ee Moskva snadno vman\u00e9vrovat Minsk do vyd\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch ok\u00e1zal\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, kdy Luka\u0161enkov\u00fdma rukama p\u0159ileje olej do vzniku nov\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00f3ny ji\u017e na severn\u00edch hranic\u00edch Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n

K\u00a0pohrani\u010dn\u00edm incident\u016fm a provokac\u00edm doch\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00a0B\u011blorusku v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji, i tyto p\u016fsob\u00ed jako prvky c\u00edlen\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed agrese proti Ukrajin\u011b a st\u00e1t\u016fm NATO. Na t\u00e9to hybridn\u00ed agresi nen\u00ed zainteresov\u00e1no p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm samotn\u00e9 B\u011blorusko, ale rusk\u00e1 strana, kter\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed z\u016fstat ve st\u00ednu akc\u00ed Luka\u0161enkova re\u017eimu, aby nemusela \u010delit dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm sankc\u00edm ze strany EU a USA.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0srpnu 2021 p\u0159edvedli litev\u0161t\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00edci v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 videa ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravu a realizaci provokativn\u00edch akc\u00ed z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9 strany, a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dobrovolnick\u00e1 komunita InformNapalm upozor\u0148ovala, jak b\u011blorusk\u00e1 propaganda informa\u010dn\u011b za\u0161ti\u0165uje hybridn\u00ed \u00fatoky na Litvu<\/a>. Nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee tento postup nebyl zre\u017e\u00edrov\u00e1n samotn\u00fdm Minskem, ale p\u0159\u00edmo vypracov\u00e1n v\u00a0Moskv\u011b nebo s\u00a0pomoc\u00ed rusk\u00fdch specialist\u016f.<\/p>\n

3\u00a0dny p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem aktivn\u00ed f\u00e1ze man\u00e9vr\u016f Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 zaznamenala komunita InformNapalm tak\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky rozjezdu informa\u010dn\u011b psychologick\u00e9 operace ze strany RF<\/a> proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm voj\u00e1k\u016fm ve sm\u011bru jih.<\/p>\n

Uveden\u00e1 v\u00a0t\u00e9to publikaci informa\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1minka a prvky jej\u00edho pod\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9 strany tedy umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed vyslovit domn\u011bnku, \u017ee i toto by mohlo b\u00fdt sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed hybridn\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00ed provokace vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 bu\u010f p\u0159\u00edmo rusk\u00fdmi voj\u00e1ky, nebo v\u00a0rusk\u00e9m z\u00e1jmu jejich b\u011blorusk\u00fdmi kolegy ji\u017e na severn\u00edch hranic\u00edch Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina je od jara 2014 ve stavu hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 agrese ze strany Rusk\u00e9 federace. RF nejprve obsadila a okupovala ji\u017en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed Krymsk\u00fd poloostrov, pak rozpoutala hybridn\u00ed boje na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm ukrajinsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed a vytvo\u0159ila v\u00e1le\u010dnou z\u00f3nu na Donbase. Dal\u0161\u00edm krokem hybridn\u00edho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho oble\u017een\u00ed Ukrajiny by se tentokr\u00e1t mohly st\u00e1t hranice severn\u00ed. A nejpohodln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pro Rusko, stejn\u011b jako v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b s\u00a0v\u00e1lkou na Donbase, by bylo svou \u00fa\u010dast na agresi neuzn\u00e1vat, ale vytvo\u0159it si form\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1razn\u00edk z\u00a0proxy jednotek, kter\u00e9 budou operovat z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Odpov\u011bdnost a sank\u010dn\u00ed tlak automaticky dopadne na Luka\u0161enk\u016fv re\u017eim, pokud bude B\u011blorusko form\u00e1ln\u011b d\u00e1l \u0159\u00eddit, nebo na ty s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 by ho mohly vyst\u0159\u00eddat s\u00a0politickou a vojenskou podporou Ruska. RF jim mezit\u00edm bude moci dod\u00e1vat p\u0159estrojen\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky bez identifikace, modern\u00ed vojenskou techniku a zbran\u011b, zat\u00edmco z\u00a0Moskvy se budou oz\u00fdvat prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o\u00a0\u201esnah\u00e1ch o\u00a0m\u00edr\u201c, \u201eochot\u011b p\u016fsobit jako moder\u00e1tor na urovn\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu\u201c atd. Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je docela mo\u017en\u00fd a z\u00e1rove\u0148, jak ukazuje v\u00e1lka na Donbase, civilizovan\u00fd sv\u011bt st\u00e1le nem\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 recepty, jak podobn\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed agresi \u010delit.<\/p>\n

Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00a0t\u00e9to v\u011bci zab\u00edr\u00e1 p\u0159ipravenost na kolektivn\u00ed obranu a vojensk\u00fd odpor, nikoli neust\u00e1l\u00e9 \u201ehlubok\u00e9 znepokojen\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem nedonut\u00ed agresora p\u0159estat. Sankce funguj\u00ed<\/a>, ne v\u0161ak dost rychle a \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b, aby to agresora od jeho \u00famysl\u016f odradilo. P\u0159edmost\u00ed z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed otev\u00edr\u00e1 pro RF nejen prostor k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm hybridn\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm operac\u00edm proti Ukrajin\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 prostor pro hybridn\u00ed (skrytou) v\u00e1lku proti \u010dlensk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm NATO.<\/p>\n

\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky k\u00a0t\u00e9matu na InformNapalmu<\/h2>\n