{"id":9447,"date":"2021-09-27T16:34:46","date_gmt":"2021-09-27T16:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=9447"},"modified":"2021-10-02T16:40:09","modified_gmt":"2021-10-02T16:40:09","slug":"zapad-2021-znaky-ohrozeni-narodni-bezpecnosti-beloruska-a-ukrajiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/zapad-2021-znaky-ohrozeni-narodni-bezpecnosti-beloruska-a-ukrajiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Z\u00e1pad 2021: znaky ohro\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti B\u011bloruska a Ukrajiny"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00a0d\u016fsledku spole\u010dn\u00e9ho s\u00a0RF strategick\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021, kter\u00e9 se konalo v\u00a0B\u011blorusku, dos\u00e1hlo ohro\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti kritick\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b. Ve sv\u00e9m nov\u00e9m shrnut\u00ed z\u00a027.\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed<\/a> o\u00a0tom p\u00ed\u0161ou dobrovoln\u00edci z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9 redakce mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 komunity InformNapalm.<\/em><\/p>\n

Je p\u0159\u00edzna\u010dn\u00e9, \u017ee velen\u00edm tohoto cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 <\/em>byl za ruskou stranu pov\u011b\u0159en n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk Gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil RF Valerij Gerasimov<\/a><\/strong>, jeden z\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch architekt\u016f rusk\u00e9 strategie hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

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Na fotce zleva: Valerij Gerasimov, Vladimir Putin a Sergej \u0160ojgu<\/em><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e od roku 2013 rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v\u00a0r\u00e1mci kon\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed zdokonaluje vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed cel\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu sil a prost\u0159edk\u016f k\u00a0veden\u00ed hybridn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed v\u00a0regionu.<\/p>\n

Zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0roce 2013 m\u011bly Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly RF p\u0159i cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02013 mo\u017enost nacvi\u010dit na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed metody veden\u00ed hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 pak byly ji\u017e v\u00a0bojov\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch uplatn\u011bny ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 agresi proti Ukrajin\u011b v\u00a0roce 2014.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02017 byly Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly BR na vlastn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed vta\u017eeny do bojov\u00e9ho n\u00e1cviku opera\u010dn\u00edho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed skupiny NATO v\u00a0pobaltsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch. Kv\u016fli realizaci sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e na obsazen\u00ed Suvalsk\u00e9ho koridoru a postupu rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy z\u00a0\u00fazem\u00ed BR do rusk\u00e9 Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti byla v\u00a0r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed poprv\u00e9 vy\u010dlen\u011bna \u010d\u00e1st b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed (tzv. Vej\u0161norie) a konfrontov\u00e1na se zbytkem zem\u011b jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtel.<\/p>\n

Dosud posledn\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 ofici\u00e1ln\u011b prob\u00edhalo na 4\u00a0cvi\u010di\u0161t\u00edch v\u00a0Brestsk\u00e9 oblasti, kter\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edmo hrani\u010d\u00ed s\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm. Jedno z\u00a0t\u011bchto cvi\u010di\u0161\u0165 (cvi\u010di\u0161t\u011b Brescki) je od hranic s\u00a0Ukrajinou vzd\u00e1leno jen n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek kilometr\u016f.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee je cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 v\u00a0B\u011blorusku jen \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho rusk\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e9 prob\u00edh\u00e1 tak\u00e9 na 9\u00a0cvi\u010di\u0161t\u00edch v\u00a0RF, byla s\u00a0velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed hlavn\u00edm objektem cvi\u010dn\u00fdch \u00fakol\u016f rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, a to i na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako v\u00a0roce 2013 pr\u00e1v\u011b Ukrajina. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch formac\u00ed je pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no z\u00a0n\u011bkolika sm\u011br\u016f, z\u00a0nich\u017e tomu b\u011blorusk\u00e9mu byl podle v\u0161eho p\u0159id\u011blen strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam. Pr\u00e1v\u011b odsud by mohla b\u00fdt provedena operace na rozetnut\u00ed jednotek ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy s\u00a0\u00famyslem dostat ukrajinskou metropoli do oble\u017een\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tzn. jednotn\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed skupina vojsk (sil) RF a BR (d\u00e1le jen \u201eRVS\u201c) a jednotn\u00fd region\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9m protileteck\u00e9 obrany (d\u00e1le jen \u201ePLO\u201c) st\u00e1le navy\u0161uje stavy sil a prost\u0159edk\u016f s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee jejich z\u00e1kladn\u00ed koncentrace prob\u00edh\u00e1 u\u00a0jednotek a formac\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti RVS, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm u\u00a01.\u00a0tankov\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil RF. Jednotky t\u00e9to hlavn\u00ed \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 obrn\u011bn\u00e9 tankov\u00e9 p\u011bsti rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy tvo\u0159\u00ed kostru vojensk\u00e9ho kontingentu Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil RF na cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Dle ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f Ministerstva obrany RF dorazilo na cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 na 2.500\u00a0voj\u00e1k\u016f, m\u00e1me v\u0161ak v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd d\u016fvod k\u00a0domn\u011bnce, \u017ee po\u010det voj\u00e1k\u016f byl ve statistice podhodnocen minim\u00e1ln\u011b o\u00a01,5n\u00e1sobek<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Od za\u010d\u00e1tku kon\u00e1n\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho cvi\u010den\u00ed testuj\u00ed Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly RF cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a kontroly vojsk ve strategick\u00fdch sm\u011brech z\u00e1pad a jihoz\u00e1pad, kter\u00e9 c\u00edl\u00ed na p\u0159\u00edpravu strategick\u00e9 operace rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy na evropsk\u00fdch boji\u0161t\u00edch. Je p\u0159\u00edzna\u010dn\u00e9, \u017ee podl\u00e9 n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka Gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil BR Viktara Hulevi\u010de je \u00fa\u010delem RVS \u201ezaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti ve v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00e9m regionu\u201c, kam pat\u0159\u00ed i Ukrajina.<\/p>\n

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Foto: Viktar Hulevi\u010d a Valerij Gerasimov<\/em><\/p>\n

Vyzdvihn\u011bme, \u017ee tvrzen\u00fd obrann\u00fd form\u00e1t cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 v\u016fbec neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 skute\u010dnosti<\/u>. P\u0159\u00edchod jednotek rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy ze st\u00e1l\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen a jejich p\u0159esun na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9m pohrani\u010d\u00ed s\u00a0Ukrajinou nasv\u011bd\u010duje pr\u00e1v\u011b ofenzivn\u00edmu zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed akc\u00ed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledkem \u00fa\u010dasti Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil BR na cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 se stalo v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti realizace kter\u00e9hokoli z\u00a0pl\u00e1novan\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f destabilizace situace v\u00a0BR, kter\u00e9 by umo\u017enilo nasadit rusk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd kontingent a vyu\u017e\u00edt B\u011blorusko jako plnohodnotn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159edmost\u00ed<\/strong>. S\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee hlavn\u00edmi sm\u011bry realizace vojensk\u00e9 agrese RF z\u00a0tohoto p\u0159edmost\u00ed se mohou st\u00e1t jako pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, tak Ukrajina.<\/p>\n

B\u011blorusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da pokra\u010duje v\u00a0integraci s\u00a0tou ruskou, kdy pln\u00ed \u00falohu hlasatele v\u016fle a z\u00e1jm\u016f RF. B\u011bloru\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci se prakticky permanentn\u011b pod\u00edlej\u00ed na cvi\u010den\u00edch veden\u00fdch pod spole\u010dn\u00fdm nebo pouze rusk\u00fdm velen\u00edm. P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm jejich po\u010dty v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b neust\u00e1le stoupaj\u00ed. Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly BR prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed bitevn\u00ed sla\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0rusk\u00fdmi jednotkami, kter\u00e9 se z\u00fa\u010dastnily v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 agrese proti Gruzii, S\u00fdrii a Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da z\u00e1rove\u0148 roz\u0161i\u0159uje svou opera\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Nasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu vznik spole\u010dn\u00e9ho s\u00a0RF \u0161kolic\u00edho bojov\u00e9ho centra pro v\u00fdcvik vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch v\u00fdsadk\u00e1\u0159\u016f<\/a> a vojsk PLO u\u00a0grodensk\u00e9 pos\u00e1dky, na jeho\u017e p\u016fd\u011b jednotky protiraketov\u00e9 obrany Vzdu\u0161n\u011b-kosmick\u00fdch sil Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil RF u\u017e konaj\u00ed bojovou pohotovost<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edtomnost rusk\u00fdch jednotek na b\u011blorusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed pod z\u00e1st\u011brkou vojensk\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed nebo sout\u011b\u017e\u00ed, p\u0159ihl\u00e9dneme-li k\u00a0p\u0159\u00edtomnosti rusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch objekt\u016f, m\u00e1 povahu permanentn\u00ed a funguje st\u0159\u00eddav\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. Tato skute\u010dnost zcela zbavuje v\u011brohodnosti ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed relace o\u00a0sta\u017een\u00ed vojsk agresorsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu RF z\u00a0B\u011bloruska ke dni 30.\u00a09.\u00a02021.<\/p>\n

Cvi\u010den\u00ed 2021 vede tak\u00e9 k\u00a0pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed politiky z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e9ho nahrazov\u00e1n\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00e9 subjektivity aktivn\u00edm pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm narativ\u016f tzv. \u201eSvazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u201c.<\/p>\n

Zejm\u00e9na pl\u00e1ny cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad\u00a02021 po\u010d\u00edtaly s\u00a0n\u00e1cvikem odporu v\u016f\u010di vojensk\u00e9 agresi pr\u00e1v\u011b proti \u201eSvazov\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu\u201c. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee v\u00a0t\u00e9to chim\u00e9rick\u00e9 formaci s\u00a0obrovskou disproporc\u00ed jejich struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch slo\u017eek (RF a BR), z\u00a0nich\u017e pr\u00e1v\u011b Rusko m\u00e1 ve\u0161ker\u00e9 \u0161ance st\u00e1t se str\u016fjcem t\u00e9to agrese skrze vyprovokov\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho konfliktu, bylo by B\u011blorusko vta\u017eeno do nov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 je pro n\u011b ciz\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n

Touha re\u017eimu vnit\u0159n\u00ed okupace B\u011bloruska za ka\u017edou cenu udr\u017eet moc, t\u0159eba i s\u00a0pomoc\u00ed RF, vede k\u00a0nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00edmu p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu ohro\u017een\u00ed cel\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti a\u017e na kritickou \u00farove\u0148, roz\u0161i\u0159uje koridor mo\u017enost\u00ed pro zata\u017een\u00ed BR do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch konflikt\u016f vyprovokovan\u00fdch RF a d\u011bl\u00e1 z\u00a0b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010ct\u011bte dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky k\u00a0t\u00e9matu na InformNapalmu<\/h2>\n