{"id":9573,"date":"2021-12-14T17:08:24","date_gmt":"2021-12-14T17:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/?p=9573"},"modified":"2021-12-18T17:15:56","modified_gmt":"2021-12-18T17:15:56","slug":"rf-planuje-presunout-na-donbas-nove-protiletecke-komplety-pancir-s1-kvuli-lovu-bayraktaru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/cz\/rf-planuje-presunout-na-donbas-nove-protiletecke-komplety-pancir-s1-kvuli-lovu-bayraktaru\/","title":{"rendered":"RF pl\u00e1nuje p\u0159esunout na Donbas nov\u00e9 protileteck\u00e9 komplety Pancir-S1 kv\u016fli lovu Bayraktar\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jak zjistili dobrovoln\u00edci z\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 komunity InformNapalm<\/a><\/em>, v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b pl\u00e1nuje Rusk\u00e1 federace p\u0159es nekontrolovan\u00e9 \u00faseky hranic skryt\u011b p\u0159esunout do okupovan\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Luhansk\u00e9 a Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti modernizovan\u00e9 protileteck\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 d\u011blov\u00e9 komplety Pancir-S1. T\u00edm rusk\u00e9 vojenskopolitick\u00e9 \u0161pi\u010dky sleduj\u00ed hned n\u011bkolik c\u00edl\u016f na taktick\u00e9 a strategick\u00e9 \u00farovni. Podrobnosti viz \u010dl\u00e1nek.<\/p>\n

\n

V\u00fdchoz\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady<\/h2>\n

Okupovan\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny slou\u017e\u00ed pro Rusy od roku 2014 de facto jako polygon a vhodn\u00fd prostor k\u00a0testov\u00e1n\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch typ\u016f zbran\u00ed a speci\u00e1ln\u00ed techniky<\/a> v\u00a0bojov\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch. Jak opakovan\u011b zaznamenali mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed investigativci a pozorovatel\u00e9, p\u0159es Rostovskou oblast se na v\u00fdchod Ukrajiny bez p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek skryt\u011b dod\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed munice, zbran\u00ed a techniky spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0vy\u0161kolen\u00fdm person\u00e1lem z\u00a0\u0159ad rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f z\u00a0povol\u00e1n\u00ed a \u017eold\u00e1k\u016f. Tato skute\u010dnost otev\u00edr\u00e1 pro RF \u0161irok\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k\u00a0vojensk\u00e9mu testov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 omezuje pouze snaha Kremlu skr\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edmou \u00fa\u010dast RF na agresi proti Ukrajin\u011b<\/strong>. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto Rusko od roku 2014 uplat\u0148uje v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b hybridn\u00ed invazi. Kreml takto \u010din\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159estrojen\u00ed za \u201eneleg\u00e1ln\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 formace\u201c, aby takto minimalizoval politick\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky a vyhnul se v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm sankc\u00edm ze strany Z\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n

Fiasko Pancir\u016f-S1 na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m V\u00fdchod\u011b<\/h2>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Foto: post\u0159elen\u00fd a uko\u0159ist\u011bn\u00fd komplet Pancir-S1 v\u00a0Libyi<\/em><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e rusk\u00e9 protileteck\u00e9 komplety Pancir-S1 uk\u00e1zaly svou n\u00edzkou \u00fa\u010dinnost proti \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdm bezpilotn\u00edm letoun\u016fm Bayraktar\u00a0TB2 v\u00a0boj\u00edch v\u00a0Libyi, S\u00fdrii a N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu, sna\u017e\u00ed se Rusk\u00e1 federace aspo\u0148 o\u00a0minim\u00e1ln\u00ed odvetu, aby nep\u0159i\u0161la o\u00a0kontrakty s\u00a0jin\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty na n\u00e1kupy tohoto typu komplet\u016f. Nap\u0159. podle vyd\u00e1n\u00ed Defense Express<\/a> s\u00a0platnost\u00ed pro \u010derven 2020 dos\u00e1hly celkov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty protileteck\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch d\u011blov\u00fdch komplet\u016f Pancir-S1 rusk\u00e9 v\u00fdroby v\u00a0S\u00fdrii a Libyi nejm\u00e9n\u011b 23\u00a0kus\u016f. Ztr\u00e1ty na dronech byly p\u0159itom minim\u00e1ln\u00ed. V\u011bt\u0161ina rusk\u00fdch komplet\u016f Pancir-S1 byla zni\u010dena pr\u00e1v\u011b vysoce p\u0159esnou munic\u00ed MAM-L shozenou z\u00a0dron\u016f Bayraktar\u00a0TB2. Pov\u011bst Ruska jako v\u00fdrobce zbran\u00ed t\u00edm jist\u011b utrp\u011bla.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto bylo rozhodnuto avizovat \u201ehloubkovou modernizaci kompletu<\/em>\u201c a vytvo\u0159it Pancir-S1M, jemu\u017e rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia posledn\u00edch p\u016flroku aktivn\u011b tvo\u0159\u00ed image \u201ezabij\u00e1ka dron\u016f\u201c. V\u00a0po\u010detn\u00fdch tiskov\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch v\u00a0m\u00e9di\u00edch Rusov\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b nov\u00fd Pancir-S1M \u00fadajn\u011b dok\u00e1\u017ee pot\u00edrat \u201ev\u0161echny typy dron\u016f v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch\u201c.<\/p>\n

Tento PR tah z\u010d\u00e1sti zafungoval, i Rusku se poda\u0159ilo podepsat n\u011bkolik kontrakt\u016f na dod\u00e1vky t\u011bchto komplet\u016f do Myanmaru a Srbska.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Screenshot ze zpravodajstv\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 agentury TASS z\u00a013.\u00a0prosince 2021<\/em><\/p>\n

N\u00e1por na v\u00fdchod Ukrajiny<\/h2>\n

Rusk\u00e9 vojenskopolitick\u00e9 \u0161pi\u010dky patrn\u011b p\u0159ehodnotily star\u00e9 n\u011bmeck\u00e9 heslo \u201eN\u00e1por na V\u00fdchod\u201c (n\u011bm. Drang nach Osten), kter\u00e9 doprov\u00e1zelo dv\u011b sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, a rozhodlo se uplatnit ho v\u016f\u010di v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n

Moskv\u011b do\u0161lo, \u017ee tiskov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, prezentace, lobbing a publikace v\u00a0m\u00e9di\u00edch nesta\u010d\u00ed k\u00a0vytvo\u0159en\u00ed image \u201ezabij\u00e1ka dron\u016f\u201c na pozad\u00ed po\u010detn\u00fdch praktick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f<\/a> aktivn\u00edho po\u0161kozen\u00ed komplet\u016f Pancir-S1.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc v\u00a0lednu 2021 zazn\u011bly zpr\u00e1vy<\/a>, \u017ee jeden z\u00a0rusk\u00fdch Pancir\u016f uko\u0159ist\u011bn\u00fdch v\u00a0Libyi se p\u0159esouv\u00e1 na americkou z\u00e1kladnu v\u00a0N\u011bmecku. N\u00e1sledn\u00e9 reverzn\u00ed in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed t\u011bchto rusk\u00fdch komplet\u016f a vytvo\u0159en\u00ed technick\u00e9 dokumentace pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 pot\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto syst\u00e9m\u016f je tedy vylo\u017een\u011b ot\u00e1zkou \u010dasu, pokud to \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty NATO ji\u017e neprovedly. Jak hloubkovou a \u00fa\u010dinnou modernizaci dok\u00e1\u017eou v\u00a0kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m term\u00ednu zajistit ru\u0161t\u00ed odborn\u00edci, v\u0161ak nen\u00ed s\u00a0jistotou zn\u00e1mo. Minim\u00e1ln\u011b na p\u0159\u00edklad\u011b jin\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f<\/a> a rusk\u00fdch v\u00fdvojov\u00fdch produkt\u016f je vid\u011bt, \u017ee modernizace nebo hled\u00e1n\u00ed alternativn\u00edch technick\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed v\u00a0podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch sank\u010dn\u00edho tlaku na RF m\u016f\u017ee trvat dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta.<\/p>\n

Aby tedy Rusko v\u0161echny p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dilo o\u00a0spolehlivosti nov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f Pancir-S1, sna\u017e\u00ed se sest\u0159elit aspo\u0148 jeden Bayraktar\u00a0TB2 na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny a tento proces skryt\u011b zdokumentovat, aby ho mohlo p\u0159edv\u00e9st sv\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm a potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm z\u00e1jemc\u016fm.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee je okupovan\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed nabit\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00edm nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f radioelektronick\u00e9ho boje a pr\u016fzkumu<\/a>, kter\u00e9 se nejednou dostaly do hled\u00e1\u010dku OSINT studi\u00ed a zpr\u00e1v SMM OBSE, Rusku se dosud nepoda\u0159ilo ulovit \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fato\u010dn\u00fd bezpilotn\u00ed letoun. \u010cas ut\u00edk\u00e1, dos\u00e1hnout odvety za ztr\u00e1ty na pov\u011bsti z\u00a0Libye a S\u00fdrie se v\u0161ak neda\u0159\u00ed, proto Rusov\u00e9 zva\u017euj\u00ed jako n\u00e1hradn\u00ed variantu tak\u00e9 pomysln\u00fd \u201epl\u00e1n B\u201c.<\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1n B<\/h2>\n

Z\u00a0informac\u00ed od HUMINT pr\u016fzkumn\u00edk\u016f je zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee jako tzv. pl\u00e1n\u00a0B pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee by se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd dron Bayraktar\u00a0TB2 na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny ulovit nepoda\u0159ilo, pl\u00e1nuje Rusko proveden\u00ed informa\u010dn\u011b psychologick\u00e9 manipulaci a fal\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed fakt\u016f<\/strong>. Na Donbas se pl\u00e1nuje dopravit \u00falomky ze sest\u0159elen\u00fdch v\u00a0S\u00fdrii \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch dron\u016f, kter\u00e9 se budou sna\u017eit prezentovat jako \u201enov\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed protileteck\u00e9 obrany nez\u00e1konn\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch formac\u00ed<\/em>\u201c (pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed, aby se neprozradily rusk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed tzv. lidov\u00fdm republik\u00e1m). Potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm z\u00e1jemc\u016fm o\u00a0rusk\u00e9 komplety pak budou tyt\u00e9\u017e vykonstruovan\u00e9 informace prezentov\u00e1ny jako \u201euk\u00e1zka \u00fa\u010dinnost nov\u00fdch Pancir\u016f-S1M<\/em>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Archivn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpady zaznamenan\u00fdch Pancir\u016f-S1 na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny<\/h2>\n

Dovol\u00edme si p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee nemodernizovan\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 protileteck\u00e9 komplety Pancir-S1 byly v\u00a0minulosti ji\u017e v\u00edckr\u00e1t zaznamen\u00e1ny v\u00a0Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny. Nap\u0159. 18.\u00a0\u00fanora 2015 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed delegace Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nie v\u00a0NATO zve\u0159ejnila<\/a> tyto fotod\u016fkazy:<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dobrovolnick\u00e1 komunita InformNapalm v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2015 tak\u00e9 p\u0159inesla vlastn\u00ed OSINT studii<\/a>, kde p\u0159edvedla fotky z\u00a0profilu jednoho ze \u017eold\u00e1k\u016f na Donbase, kter\u00fd fotil selfie p\u0159ed rusk\u00fdm kompletem Pancir-S1.<\/p>\n

Od roku 2015 se v\u0161ak tyto komplety na fotky a videa dost\u00e1vat p\u0159estaly. Moskva tedy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozhodla sv\u00e9 Panciry-S1 st\u00e1hnout zp\u011bt do Rostovsk\u00e9 oblasti, d\u00e1l od nepovolan\u00fdch pohled\u016f. Nav\u00edc vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee se ukrajinsk\u00e9 letectvo v\u00a0z\u00f3n\u011b v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 operace p\u0159estalo pou\u017e\u00edvat. Nov\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159esunu komplet\u016f Pancir-S1 na Donbas tedy za\u010dalo b\u00fdt aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed teprve v\u00a0roce 2021, kdy Ukrajina v\u00a0oblasti boj\u016f poprv\u00e9 pou\u017eila \u00fato\u010dn\u00fd dron Bayraktar\u00a0TB2<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n

Rusk\u00e1 federace pl\u00e1nuje dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci boj\u016f na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny. Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem pokra\u010duje p\u0159esun na okupovan\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed jak nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f radioelektronick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a boje, tak dal\u0161\u00edch typ\u016f zbran\u00ed a techniky. RF bere v\u00a0potaz, \u017ee ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0aktivn\u00ed f\u00e1z\u00ed boj\u016f v\u00a0letech 2014\u20132015 m\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dnes mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzbroj a vybaven\u00ed. Zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 ohro\u017eeni se c\u00edt\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdmi drony Bayraktar\u00a0TB2, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e uk\u00e1zaly svou vysokou \u00fa\u010dinnost v\u00a0boj\u00edch v\u00a0Libyi, S\u00fdrii a N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu. RF, kter\u00e1 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 Donbasu jako vojensk\u00e9ho polygonu pro testy v\u00a0bojov\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch, pl\u00e1nuje vy\u0159e\u0161it hned n\u011bkolik taktick\u00fdch a strategick\u00fdch \u00fakol\u016f spojen\u00fdch jak s\u00a0agres\u00ed proti Ukrajin\u011b, tak s\u00a0v\u00fdvozem vlastn\u00edch zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e9 rychle p\u0159i\u0161ly o\u00a0pov\u011bst v\u00a0boj\u00edch na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m V\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/p>\n

Nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee ve snaze ulovit ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 drony se jejich ter\u010dem m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t s\u00e1m nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00fd Pancir-S1M. Na rozd\u00edl od Libye \u010di S\u00fdrie maj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 komplety na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny p\u0159ed sebou n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fakol, a sice nedostat se na z\u00e1b\u011bry ani videa z\u00a0dron\u016f nebo do hled\u00e1\u010dku OSINT vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Tentokr\u00e1t se toti\u017e reakce u\u017e nemus\u00ed omezit na pouh\u00e9 tweety a d\u016fkazy rusk\u00e9 agrese na ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f NATO. Z\u00e1pad je mnohem tvrd\u011bji p\u0159ipraven\u00fd na p\u0159itvrzen\u00ed sankc\u00ed za jak\u00e9koli projevy rusk\u00e9 agrese proti Ukrajin\u011b. V\u00a08.\u00a0roce trv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky je pro Kreml st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u016fstat pod rou\u0161kou \u201enez\u00e1konn\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch formac\u00ed\u201c.<\/p>\n

\u010ct\u011bte dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky k\u00a0t\u00e9matu na InformNapalmu<\/h2>\n