ATO Progress

ATO forces continued development of successful offensive. They continue to advance upon Luhansk. However, they have not fully encircled the grouping of terrorists in Lysychansk yet.

Approximately at 12:00 columns of armored vehicles moving from Lysychansk to Popasna were observed. It should be noted that in the late afternoon large columns of militants moved from Popasna towards Pervomaisk.

Note that liberation of Vesela Tarasivka and Luhutine does not completely deprive terrorists of supply routes between Donetsk and Luhansk (they can use country roads). Rubizhne and Severodonetsk are almost liberated but there is a new problem coming: it is unclear where terrorists from Pervomaisk are going to go. As an option, they may try to cut off the ATO grouping in Vesela Tarasivka and this should be considered.

Based on the information from public sources, ATO forces advance from Artemivsk towards Svitlodarsk, from Kostyantynivka towards Dzerzhynsk. Given that terrorists built up their forces in Holmivskiy, we can expect a cutting off attack from there. Advance upon Svitlodarsk will soon stumble upon a powerful fortified area near Vuhlehirske Myronivske reservoirs. At that a cutting off attack is possible simultaneously from Pervomaisk and Holmivskiy. When advancing from Kostyantynivka, ATO forces may face problems between Dzerzhynsk and Horlyvka – terrorists created quite powerful fortified area there.

Terrorists continue to build up their forces in Donetsk near the airport. If Donetsk is really cut off from the Russian Federation (of Enslaved People) – it is hard to believe in this at the moment – the airport will be as necessary to terrorists as air. And then we should expect surprises.

As for Luhansk, militants strengthen their positions in the direction of Rovenky. In other words, terrorists will try to hold BCP Dolzhanskyi as stubbornly as BCP Izvaryne. That is why it is too early to talk about complete cut off of militants from the Russian Federation.

At the same time we cannot rule out threats of guerilla warfare in the liberated area. Today in Slovyansk shootings were heard again. Besides, the situation with the terrorists hiding in Sviatohirsk Lavra is not yet completely clear. Mopping up of those areas has not finished yet and that is why we should be ready for surprises.

The Russian Federation continues to accumulate its forces in the directions we have written about earlier. In fact, the shock force near the border of Ukraine is now as large (or maybe even exceeds) than that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore it is necessary for the ATO forces to pursue a rapid onset and liberate territories of militants in order not to carry the conflict to a lingering phase given that there are large forces of the aggressor are quite near.

UPDATE: there is information about return of the ATO forces to Donetsk. This means that Popasne still remains a stumbling block as we have already predicted. Given that yesterday it was possible to get into the city center by goatherds’ trails, it will be very difficult to take up Popasne now. Moreover, now we can expect that terrorists counterattack in the area of Artemivsk. Most likely, the blow will be inflicted from Holmivskiy.

Major Developments in the International Arena in the Context of the Situation in Ukraine

The world begins to move away from the shock caused by the downfall of the Malaysian aircraft. The emotions go, but a passionate desire remains to understand the causes of the incident and punish those who responsible. We continue to witness the emergence of numerous articles in the international media and unflattering comments about Vladimir Putin by politicians of different levels. All this shows that the international community blames Putin for the deaths of nearly three hundred people.

Unlike Germany which after the incident dramatically changed its position, the United States of America have been consistent in their statements. So, John Kerry said that the terrorists had got the surface-to-air missile systems BUK from Russia, and that this tragedy after a detailed examination of the evidence showed that Moscow provided support to terrorists, which is much larger than previously thought.

In unison the US Senator Ben Cardin and British Minister of Defence Michael Fallon offered to pronounce Russia as a “country-sponsor of terrorism”. If that happens, Russia will be in one raw with Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria.

Also Germany and France don’t stay behind. During a telephone conversation, Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and David Cameron decided to give Russia a time-out until Tuesday to take steps aimed at normalizing the situation in Ukraine and the cessation of support for terrorists. Otherwise, it faces a new wave of sanctions which will be discussed on Tuesday July, 22 by Foreign Ministers of the EU Member States.

Meanwhile, terrorists in control of the territory with the remains of the aircraft are continuing to complicate the work of OSCE representatives, who arrived at the crash site.

Russian version: АТО. Сводка за 20.07.2014