There is evidence of Russian troops present in eastern Ukraine – not only in a command role and to operate advanced equipment, but as coherent fighting formations too. Those forces deployed to Ukraine, on or near the border, and in Crimea represent a serious and direct threat to Ukraine. That is due to the numbers of these Russian forces, which nearly matches that of all of Kiev’s available combat forces. Further, rebel forces more or less under Russian control number half the total of Russian troops. Hence, Kiev cannot generate or count on numerical superiority.
The main strategic objective of Russian troops is to secure the continued existence of Russian-controlled ‘republics’ in eastern Ukraine. Yet Russia is having trouble sustaining its forces generated for the operation against Ukraine.
Under such circumstances, one cannot exclude the possibility that the Kremlin might opt to capitalise upon its relatively advantageous position – while it still exists – over a Ukrainian military that is currently weakened by its forced retreat from the Debaltseve area, in which it took substantial losses of equipment and probably manpower. This would also solidify the rebels’ new territorial gains. The large industrial centre and seaport of Mariupol would be the most likely target.
Relocation of Russian and rebel forces from the Debaltseve area to concentrations north and east of Mariupol indicate that this option is certainly being considered in the Kremlin. Should this be the case, a further escalation of hostilities and a Russian military push to expand rebel-controlled territory remains a realistic possibility
The interactive map on Russian Armed Forces from InformNapalm team .
