Despite Minsk and the new Decentralization Legislation, War with Russia is Coming!

Briefly would like to point out the uselessness of the mood of panic around the adopted law related to the special status of the occupied Lugansk and Donetsk regions. In our future reports we will try to present a more in-depth assessment of these measures, but for now would like to stress that it is not “wimping out” and admitting defeat. We are not going to reveal all the moves in the chess game but will give a hint that this move allows further chance to get international (military) aid.

Recently the German periodical “Stern” mentioned in a report that a Bundeswehr elite unit (a part of the NATO forces) will be deployed on  Ukrainian territory in the near future . Among the duties of the unit will be the task of executing control over some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk region as well as the Russian-Ukrainian border. The unit’s activity will be supported by German UAVs (type “Luna”). According to the preliminary data, the base deployment has already begun, and starting on Monday or Tuesday next week the German drones are to start flying in the assigned sectors.

The Ukrainian Government has declared certain concessions but they are really neither favourable for the Russians, nor for the terrorists. In the wording of the new legislation, it is stated that people of Donbass may get decentralization of power but will remain part of Ukraine. In reality Putin is interested in continuing the disguised war otherwise the “bike of aggression” he is constantly treading will start to fail, and against this background the people of Russia will start to express dissatisfaction with their own situation, which will only get worse under Putin’s regime.

It is our belief that wide scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia is inevitable; it’s just a matter of time. The field commanders of DNR/LNR terrorist groupings are not going to stop fighting. But they have demonstrated their inability to effectively confront the Ukrainian army, even in spite of its bad shape as a result of a period of more than 20 years in which our military capabilities were systematically dismantled. This will mean that the Russian Armed Forces will be forced to act openly. Hopefully by the time of the critical final assault of the Russian bear, the whole of Ukraine will be prepared!

Update of Events from the Combat Zone

The morning of September 16 in Donetsk started with a big bang. According to preliminary data, there was a powerful explosion at one of the DNR ammunition supply depots in Donetsk The detonation was very powerful. At this stage we can only guess as to the reason for the explosion.

During the day terrorists shelled a shuttle bus. Information about the incident quickly spread through the Internet. There is one interesting point in this story: the projectile came from the territory of the village of Abakumov’s mine. Most of the residents of Donetsk know that the village is the base of the terrorists and that is why the conclusion for responsibility is obvious to everybody.

Over the past day, the DNR terrorists have continued to assault the Donetsk airport by shelling it from the Kuibyshivskyi district (we previously wrote about terrorists’ ironclads with MLRSes on the platform). We have heard a report that the airport could be surrendered in exchange for the withdrawal of the militants from the Mariupol area; but this report is unconfirmed and we therefore cannot comment further.

The front line in the area of Panteleimonivka is being straightened; the terrorists are trying to gain control over the M04 highway (Horlivka-Donetsk). It is likely that after unsuccessful attempts to capture the airport from the south (that is, from Donetsk), the militants will instead try to complete an encirclement of the airport. Currently the control of Avdiivka by ATO forces prevents this. In this regard, we can talk about the possibility of further attacks towards Verkhnotoretske with the aim to gain control over the H20 highway and cut Avdiivka off from resupply.

Diversionary reconnaissance groups of militants act in the Pisky-Karlivka direction because of the possibility of passage of the convoys of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Karlivka to Pisky. In other words, the capture of the airport, either through shelling, through direct assault or through encirclement remains a priority for the DNR terrorists.

Regarding the encirclement developing around Debaltseve, we would like to confirm that the possibility of the creation of the pocket there is still quite low. Yesterday the enemy forces attempted to attack from three directions at once, but their attacks failed. Attacks came from the direction of Rozsypne-Netishyne, Artemivsk and Yenakijeve. It is not clear if Debaltseve is the main priority for the enemy forces or if the main focus is actually Shchastya and Novoaidar, given that we constantly receive information on the arrival of new Russian military equipment to Luhansk.

As for Mariupol, the Russian-DNR forces are preparing an attack from the north. This is evidenced by the concentration of armored vehicles in the area of Olenivka. Just yesterday we received confirmation of the arrival of another batch of armored vehicles at this point.

Written by Roman Burko.