{"id":10516,"date":"2017-03-02T19:01:01","date_gmt":"2017-03-02T19:01:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/?p=10516"},"modified":"2017-03-02T19:03:04","modified_gmt":"2017-03-02T19:03:04","slug":"donbas-blockade-kremlins-plans-surkovleaks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/donbas-blockade-kremlins-plans-surkovleaks\/","title":{"rendered":"Donbas blockade: Kremlin’s plans in SurkovLeaks"},"content":{"rendered":"

In Ukraine, passions are running high on social networks and TV around the blockade of railway tracks by a group of activists. The opinions about the relevance of the protest are highly polarized, creating a bitter rift between Ukrainians. Some believe it immoral to trade with the occupied territories, receiving “in compensation” the deadly artillery fire claiming lives of Ukrainian citizens. Others have finally realized that the war could come to their homes in the form of rolling blackouts and houses left without heating.<\/p>\n

The civil discord is primarily due to the lack of dialogue between the authorities and the people. Over the three years of war, the government has failed to explain to the Ukrainians the ins and outs of trading with the occupants and how severing these ties could affect the economy.<\/p>\n

InformNapalm does not want to take part in online battles, and we hope that the prsidential decree “On urgent measures to neutralize threats to energy security of Ukraine and enhance protection of critical infrastructure” signed by Petro Poroshenko will result in clear legal and regulatory framework (apart from discretionary decisions).<\/p>\n

We wonder, whether the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine has evaluated the risks of a possible similar blockade initiated by the residents of the temporarily occupied territory on the other side of the demarcation line. Whom would the Cabinet blame in that case?<\/p>\n

However, our opponent proved to be smarter and trickier. Russia modeled the situation with a possible economic blockade already in mid-2014, immediately after the creation of the puppet republics. Paradoxically, their emphasis was on the scenario when Ukraine blocks deliveries to<\/strong>, but not from<\/strong> the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. And the blockade we have today does exactly the latter.<\/p>\n

We are in possession of a huge array of documents retrieved by Ukrainian hacktivists from the mailbox of the office of Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov. The analysis of the mailbox allowed InformNapalm team to shed light on Russia’s plans to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. The first part of the analysis<\/a> of Surkov’s dump referred to a document titled On the risks of an economic blockade of the DPR and LPR<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

It was attached to a letter mailed to Surkov’s office on June 18, 2014 by V.N. Avdeyenko (Avdeenko_VN@gov.ru). At that time, Vladimir Nikolayevich Avdeyenko was the Head of the Directorate for Cooperation with the CIS Countries, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia of Russia’s Presidential Executive Office. Vladimir Avdeyenko also supervised the economic relations with the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR).\u00a0By the end of 2014, the Russian media announced<\/a> his dismissal from this post.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

So, what kind of analysis did Avdeyenko provide to Surkov? What fears did the Russian leadership have and what alternative solutions did it see?<\/p>\n