{"id":15082,"date":"2019-09-03T13:52:18","date_gmt":"2019-09-03T13:52:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/?p=15082"},"modified":"2019-09-03T13:52:18","modified_gmt":"2019-09-03T13:52:18","slug":"metodolohia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/","title":{"rendered":"InformNapalm presented their methodology for comparisons between reports of the OSCE and the JFO"},"content":{"rendered":"

InformNapalm international intelligence community has produced five reports with weekly comparisons of data on incidents of shelling by the Russian occupation forces provided in reports of the JFO (Joint Forces Operation) and the OSCE SMM (Special Monitoring Mission). These reports are available here: Week\u00a01<\/a>, Week\u00a02<\/a>, Week 3<\/a>, Week 4<\/a>, Week 5.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

From the very beginning, skeptics kept saying something along the line of \u201cDo you know that the JFO and the OSCE have different counting methodologies?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Yes, we are aware of the counting methodology applied by the JFO and how it is different from the OSCE\u2019s methodology. Of course, we make calculations in two stages and do not resort to the primitive one-to-one comparisons of the reports. Before comparing data from the two reports, the OSCE shelling incident data are restated on the basis of the JFO principles\u201430 or more discharges are counted (the way the JFO does it) as a single shelling incident if it has taken more than one hour till the next shell burst.<\/p>\n

How are we doing this? <\/strong>Our volunteers print out OSCE tables, use date markers, and look at each settlement in the government-controlled area attacked by shelling from the enemy side. If there is one hour of difference between the shelling incidents, they are entered into the table at the relevant dates. We know that the same date and place can appear in three different OSCE reports, but we only count them once in our table. In their reports, OSCE indicate illumination flares as infractions, but we do not count them as shelling incidents, in spite of listing them in the table.<\/p>\n

The following is a practical example of the calculations.<\/p>\n

We print out OSCE reports for a week and use colored markers to highlight all violations of the ceasefire regime where enemy shells the government-controlled areas. This is, for instance, a Ceasefire Regime Violation Table as at 7:00\u00a0p.m. on August\u00a09, 2019:<\/p>\n

A camera in Berezove recorded an explosion of undetermined origin on 1:08\u00a0a.m. on August\u00a09. We count it as one violation\u20141 shelling incident. It may have been a landmine detonation. It is, however, much likelier that it has been a shell hit because the militants tend to fire shells during the nighttime. Thus, this incident is entered into the comparison table.<\/p>\n

A camera in Chermalyk recorded shells and explosions from 11:05\u00a0p.m. on August\u00a08 to 3.28\u00a0a.m. We highlight August 8 violations with a yellow marker\u201414 shells from 11:05 till 11.13\u00a0p.m. as a single shelling incident. We highlight August 9 violations with a blue marker\u201478 shells from 2:07 till 3:08\u00a0a.m. as a single shelling incident.<\/p>\n

In Maiorsk, a camera recorded three shells between 2:50 and 3:28\u00a0a.m. on August 8\u2014we report it as a single shelling incident. On August 9, four shells were recorded on 0:58\u00a0a.m. After more than one hour, further ten shells were recorded from 3:31 to 3:33\u00a0a.m., and we report these attacks as two shelling incidents.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

This is what it looks like in the aggregate table<\/a> we attach to each comparative report.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Thus, whenever we find that the JFO understates the number of shelling attacks on the government-controlled territory by 30\u00a0percent in comparison with the OSCE data, the differences in counting methodologies have already been reconciled. It is for this reason that we believe that the understatement of the number of shelling attacks from the enemy side can be caused by an initiative of officials guided by political considerations. There may have been no direct demand for understating the number of shelling incidents; however, there could have been statements along the lines of \u201cLet us demonstrate that the truce is possible.\u201d<\/em> It would suffice for some officials to make necessary conclusions and take steps on their own. It may have been for this reason that the difference has gone down to 30\u00a0percent in the weeks after the reports about the 80\u00a0percent downward bias in JFO reports of shelling incidents in comparison with the OSCE reports. However, a difference of 30 and more percent determined on the basis of the unified counting methodology looks like an anomaly taking into account that the OSCE does not cover the entire line of separation and obtains fewer shelling incident reports than the JFO headquarters.<\/p>\n

This situation drew attention of InformNapalm\u2019s volunteers who keep preparing weekly calculations.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Distribution and reprint with reference to the source are welcome! (Creative Commons \u2014 Attribution 4.0 International \u2014 CC BY 4.0<\/a>) Follow InformNapalm on
\nFacebook<\/a>\u00a0\/\u00a0Twitter<\/a>\u00a0\/\u00a0Telegram\u00a0<\/a>Contact us and get updates about new investigations. Repost and share with friends!<\/p>\n

You can also support InformNapalm with your\u00a0<\/em>donation<\/em><\/a>\u00a0so that you help the volunteers to cover the expenses on the site maintenance, and to promote our volunteer movement.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

InformNapalm international intelligence community has produced five reports with weekly comparisons of data on incidents of shelling…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":15085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[529,528],"tags":[6200,5225],"class_list":["post-15082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-donbas","category-news","tag-joint-forces-operation","tag-osce-smm"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nInformNapalm presented their methodology for comparisons between reports of the OSCE and the JFO - InformNapalm.org (English)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"InformNapalm international intelligence community has produced five reports with weekly comparisons of data on incidents of shelling by the Russian occupation forces provided in reports of the JFO (Joint Forces Operation) and the OSCE SMM (Special Monitoring Mission).\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"InformNapalm presented their methodology for comparisons between reports of the OSCE and the JFO - 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InformNapalm.org (English)","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2019\/09\/642x336_en.jpg","datePublished":"2019-09-03T13:52:18+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/d9ac22904157eeb67f0b60921e87d8bf"},"description":"InformNapalm international intelligence community has produced five reports with weekly comparisons of data on incidents of shelling by the Russian occupation forces provided in reports of the JFO (Joint Forces Operation) and the OSCE SMM (Special Monitoring Mission).","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2019\/09\/642x336_en.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2019\/09\/642x336_en.jpg","width":642,"height":336},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/metodolohia\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"InformNapalm presented their methodology for comparisons between reports of the OSCE and the JFO"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/","name":"InformNapalm.org (English)","description":"Latest News from Ukraine","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/d9ac22904157eeb67f0b60921e87d8bf","name":"vasgri","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/5851afa9a0b73acb616f1433ce0c88213f283b6c8f0d65289e0763ccd1703343?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/5851afa9a0b73acb616f1433ce0c88213f283b6c8f0d65289e0763ccd1703343?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"vasgri"},"url":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/author\/vasgri\/"}]}},"post_src":"InformNapalm international intelligence community has produced five reports with weekly comparisons of data on incidents of shelling by the Russian occupation forces provided in reports of the JFO (Joint Forces Operation) and the OSCE SMM (Special Monitoring Mission). These reports are available here: <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/obsie-fiksuie-bilshe-obstriliv-z-boku-ok\/\">Week\u00a01<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/pislia-2-tyzhnia-peremyria-riznytsia-kilkis\/\">Week\u00a02<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/3i-tyzhden-peremyria-oos-podaie-na-31-me\/\">Week 3<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/4-tyzhden-peremyria\/\">Week 4<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/porivniannia-5-week\/\">Week 5.<\/a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2019\/09\/Infographics2.jpg\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15084\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2019\/09\/Infographics2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"824\" \/><\/a>\r\n\r\nFrom the very beginning, skeptics kept saying something along the line of <em>\u201cDo you know that the JFO and the OSCE have different counting methodologies?\u201d<\/em>\r\n\r\nYes, we are aware of the counting methodology applied by the JFO and how it is different from the OSCE\u2019s methodology. Of course, we make calculations in two stages and do not resort to the primitive one-to-one comparisons of the reports. Before comparing data from the two reports, the OSCE shelling incident data are restated on the basis of the JFO principles\u201430 or more discharges are counted (the way the JFO does it) as a single shelling incident if it has taken more than one hour till the next shell burst.\r\n\r\n<strong>How are we doing this? <\/strong>Our volunteers print out OSCE tables, use date markers, and look at each settlement in the government-controlled area attacked by shelling from the enemy side. If there is one hour of difference between the shelling incidents, they are entered into the table at the relevant dates. We know that the same date and place can appear in three different OSCE reports, but we only count them once in our table. In their reports, OSCE indicate illumination flares as infractions, but we do not count them as shelling incidents, in spite of listing them in the table.\r\n\r\nThe following is a practical example of the calculations.\r\n\r\nWe print out OSCE reports for a week and use colored markers to highlight all violations of the ceasefire regime where enemy shells the government-controlled areas. This is, for instance, a Ceasefire Regime Violation Table as at 7:00\u00a0p.m. on August\u00a09, 2019:\r\n\r\nA camera in Berezove recorded an explosion of undetermined origin on 1:08\u00a0a.m. on August\u00a09. We count it as one violation\u20141 shelling incident. It may have been a landmine detonation. It is, however, much likelier that it has been a shell hit because the militants tend to fire shells during the nighttime. Thus, this incident is entered into the comparison table.\r\n\r\nA camera in Chermalyk recorded shells and explosions from 11:05\u00a0p.m. on August\u00a08 to 3.28\u00a0a.m. We highlight August 8 violations with a yellow marker\u201414 shells from 11:05 till 11.13\u00a0p.m. as a single shelling incident. We highlight August 9 violations with a blue marker\u201478 shells from 2:07 till 3:08\u00a0a.m. as a single shelling incident.\r\n\r\nIn Maiorsk, a camera recorded three shells between 2:50 and 3:28\u00a0a.m. on August 8\u2014we report it as a single shelling incident. On August 9, four shells were recorded on 0:58\u00a0a.m. After more than one hour, further ten shells were recorded from 3:31 to 3:33\u00a0a.m., and we report these attacks as two shelling incidents.\r\n\r\n<img src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2019\/08\/1-2.jpg\" \/>\r\n\r\n<img src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2019\/08\/2-3.jpg\" \/>\r\n\r\nThis is what it looks like in the <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/16nHx12S_MtKE5hDtxbp8eW0BNr1_cKSf\/view?usp=sharing\">aggregate table<\/a> we attach to each comparative report.\r\n\r\n<img src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2019\/08\/3-3.jpg\" \/>\r\n\r\nThus, whenever we find that the JFO understates the number of shelling attacks on the government-controlled territory by 30\u00a0percent in comparison with the OSCE data, the differences in counting methodologies have already been reconciled. It is for this reason that we believe that the understatement of the number of shelling attacks from the enemy side can be caused by an initiative of officials guided by political considerations. There may have been no direct demand for understating the number of shelling incidents; however, there could have been statements along the lines of <em>\u201cLet us demonstrate that the truce is possible.\u201d<\/em> It would suffice for some officials to make necessary conclusions and take steps on their own. It may have been for this reason that the difference has gone down to 30\u00a0percent in the weeks after the reports about the 80\u00a0percent downward bias in JFO reports of shelling incidents in comparison with the OSCE reports. However, a difference of 30 and more percent determined on the basis of the unified counting methodology looks like an anomaly taking into account that the OSCE does not cover the entire line of separation and obtains fewer shelling incident reports than the JFO headquarters.\r\n\r\nThis situation drew attention of InformNapalm\u2019s volunteers who keep preparing weekly calculations.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"wp-image-8997 aligncenter lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2016\/08\/InformNapalm_logo_05.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"171\" height=\"75\" data-src=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2016\/08\/InformNapalm_logo_05.png\" \/>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Distribution and reprint with reference to the source are welcome! (<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">Creative Commons \u2014 Attribution 4.0 International \u2014 CC BY 4.0<\/a>) Follow InformNapalm on\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/informnapalm24en\/\">Facebook<\/a>\u00a0\/\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/en_informnapalm\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0\/\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/informnapalm\">Telegram\u00a0<\/a>Contact us and get updates about new investigations. Repost and share with friends!<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>You can also support InformNapalm with your\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/crowdfunding\/\"><em>donation<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0so that you help the volunteers to cover the expenses on the site maintenance, and to promote our volunteer movement.<\/em><\/p>","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/106"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15082"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15082\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15088,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15082\/revisions\/15088"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}