{"id":15759,"date":"2020-09-06T07:38:44","date_gmt":"2020-09-06T07:38:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/?p=15759"},"modified":"2020-09-06T07:38:44","modified_gmt":"2020-09-06T07:38:44","slug":"analysis-of-the-osce-smm-reports-in-donbas-for-august-intelligence-shows-preparations-for-escalation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informnapalm.org\/en\/analysis-of-the-osce-smm-reports-in-donbas-for-august-intelligence-shows-preparations-for-escalation\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis of the OSCE SMM reports in Donbas for August: intelligence shows preparations for escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Volunteers of the <\/strong>InformNapalm<\/a> volunteer intelligence community continue to collect data on the operational situation in Donbas, conduct OSINT monitoring of social networks and document<\/strong> numerous proofs<\/a> of the Russian military personnel and mercenaries participating in the Russian war against Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Reports of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine are among the most important official sources for analyzing and comparing information. They can be compared with public statements by the Office of the President<\/a> or with the data from the press service of the<\/a> Joint Forces Operation (JFO) in Donbas (as we did last year during the previous “ceasefire”). Of course, many questions remain about the OSCE SMM reports, given that there is a stable large number of Russians<\/a>, as well as citizens of the countries loyal to Russia among the observers of the Mission in Ukraine, which allows the aggressor country to influence the monitoring data. However, so far there is no alternative and there are no other official monitoring organizations to collect data, therefore we have to use this source of information, albeit with a pinch of salt. It is also worth remembering that very often the OSCE international observers themselves become the object of information operations<\/a> of Russia and their movement in the territory controlled by the Russian occupation forces (1st and 2nd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces<\/a>) are restricted in every possible way. And when visual contact is limited (observation cameras are turned off or disabled, and monitoring UAVs jammed by Russian electronic warfare equipment<\/a>) observers often have to fully rely on sound information about explosions or small arms fire. This method has material flaws. In the absence of visual contact, the Russian troops also actively use technical assets for deception, for example, the ZS-82<\/a> sound broadcasting stations, able to simulate explosions and other sounds that can distort the real situation.<\/p>\n

Analysis of the OSCE SMM reports from the second half of August to September 2020<\/h2>\n

InformNapalm volunteers analyzed 11 OSCE SMM reports with numbers from 199\/2020 to 209\/2020 for the period from August 21 to September 2, 2020. The list of links to reports is given below:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Daily Report 199\/2020 issued on 21 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. Daily Report 200\/2020 issued on 22 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  3. Daily Report 201\/2020 issued on 24 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  4. Daily Report 202\/2020 issued on 25 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  5. Daily Report 203\/2020 issued on 26 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  6. Daily Report 204\/2020 issued on 27 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  7. Daily Report 205\/2020 issued on 28 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  8. Daily Report 206\/2020 issued on 29 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  9. Daily Report 207\/2020 issued on 31 August 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  10. Daily Report 208\/2020 issued on 1 September 2020<\/a><\/li>\n
  11. Daily Report 209\/2020 issued on 2 September 2020<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    During this period, Ukraine celebrated National Flag Day (August 23), Independence Day (August 24) and honored the memory of the fallen servicemen on Remembrance Day (August 29). The purpose of the monitoring was to analyze the key points of the reports, to identify meaningful intelligence indicators for the real current situation in the combat zone.<\/p>\n

    “Following agreement reached at the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on 22 July <\/em>regarding additional measures to strengthen the ceasefire, from 00:01 on 27 July until the end of the reporting period, the SMM has so far recorded a total of 893 ceasefire violations, both in Donetsk and Luhansk regions (including 149 explosions, two projectiles <\/em>in flight, 13 illumination flares and 729 bursts and shots)”<\/em> – OSCE.<\/p>\n

    The situation in the areas of disengagement of forces and assets<\/h2>\n

    \u201cThe SMM continued to monitor the security situation in and around the three pilot disengagement areas. Meanwhile, the Mission constantly recorded the presence of people in former military and military-type positions, as well as near them within the disengagement areas in the Zolote and Petrivske areas, \u201d<\/em> – OSCE.<\/p>\n

    Let us dwell on each of the areas for the disengagement of forces and assets in more detail:<\/p>\n

    Stanytsia Luhanska<\/u><\/h2>\n

    The SMM observed members of the illegal armed formations (wearing armbands with \u201cJCCC\u201d written on them) every day at the southern end of the new bridge span near Stanytsia Luhanska. Only one small arms shot was recorded on the evening of 24 August.<\/p>\n

    However, residents of Stanytsia Luhanska regularly write on social media about the violation of the “ceasefire regime” by the Russian occupation forces. For example, the well-known volunteer Sveta Svetikova repeatedly wrote about violations on August 27 at 21:23<\/a> and on August 30 at 6:07 and 6:40 am<\/a> .<\/p>\n

    We also noticed that the OSCE SMM in its reports continues to manipulate sensitive information about the violation of the agreements on the withdrawal of weapons. We wrote<\/a> about this in January 2020 and we see the same pattern again in the report for September 1, 2020 \u2116208\/2020.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    It is worth reminding that according to the Minsk protocols, tanks, artillery, MLRS, tactical missiles are subject to withdrawal, whereas anti-aircraft missile systems are not regulated. Any disclosure of such irrelevant data contradicts the principles of neutrality and impartiality, which should guide the OSCE SMM in providing sensitive defense information.<\/p>\n

    Zolote<\/u><\/h2>\n

    Every day the SMM see members of the illegal armed formations (wearing armbands with \u201cJCCC\u201d written on them), alone or with people in protective gear, going 350 m deep into the disengagement area near the T1316 road.<\/p>\n

    “On the same day, outside of the disengagement area, about 100m south of its southern edge, the Mission saw 15 workers with three excavators and a truck with a trailer conducting groundworks across and along road T-1316.”<\/em> – OSCE.<\/p>\n

    It should be noted that they work non-stop.<\/p>\n

    “On 26 August, outside the disengagement area, an SMM mid-range UAV spotted for the first time a new L-shaped trench (30m long) about 150m west of the area\u2019s western edge and about 100m north of the railway tracks that pass through the disengagement area, assessed as belonging to the armed formations”<\/em> – OSCE.<\/p>\n

    That is, the occupying forces continue to use the “ceasefire” to expand their strongholds and strengthen their offensive capabilities.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Petrivske<\/u><\/h2>\n

    While monitoring the disengagement near Petrivske village, members of the Mission’s patrols normally note a calm situation there. However, long-range SMM UAVs spot from 1 to 6 people manning the former position of the illegal armed formations every night.<\/p>\n

    “On 30 August, inside the disengagement area near Petrivske (non-governmentcontrolled, 41km south of Donetsk), an SMM mini-UAV spotted construction materials with wooden logs and sandbags piled near a position of the armed formations near the area\u2019s south-eastern corner (not seen in imagery from 20 August 2020).”<\/em><\/p>\n

    InformNapalm draws readers’ attention to the fact that during the reporting period, the OSCE SMM cameras did not work from 20 to 24 August in Zolote and from 20 August to 1 September in Petrivske. These bits of data bring us to the conclusion that the SMM has no conclusive information about what is happening in these disengagement areas. Therefore, the situation can be only nominally called “calm”, since, for example, the process of the enemy laying landmines apparently goes unnoticed.<\/p>\n

    Mining operations<\/h2>\n

    Russian occupation forces continue to mine new areas.<\/p>\n

    On August 20 The Mission saw for the first time a new mine hazard sign (30x30cm red wooden board with \u201cStop Mines\u201d in Cyrillic) attached to a tree about 20m north of a road about 1.5km north-east of Raivka (non-government-controlled, 16km north-west of Luhansk).”<\/em><\/p>\n

    On August 28 \u201con the western outskirts of the Trudovski microdistrict in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk SMM mini-UAV spotted for the first time 10 anti-tank mines placed in 2 rows and blocking the road leading west to Maryinka village”<\/p>\n

    Read more:\u00a0<\/strong>Ukraine at the OSCE spoke about Russian anti-personnel mines in Donbas, which are prohibited by international conventions<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

    Engineering works<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Russian occupation forces continue engineering work along the entire contact line:<\/p>\n