Anti-Terrorist Operation

The 3rd July was eventful with engagements in many areas. Finally after heavy fighting over the last 2 days the Ukrainian forces entered Mykolaivka, Slovyansk Region. It is still early to talk about freeing of the village completely, but according to the news, as well as other indirect signs, the terrorist supply traffic to Slovyansk on the ‘Ho Chi Minh trail’ has finally been stopped (although there is the danger of it being re-opened). The Ukrainian successes have caused the separatists to panic, as evidenced by the reports of the Minister of Defence of DPR. Previously these reports sounded like a collection of science fiction short stories; currently they are like the hysterical yelling.

It should not be forgotten that there is a large number of armoured vehicles in the town of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which can bring a lot of problems to our forces. In Kramatorsk on 3rd of July, once again peaceful areas came under the fire from terrorist forces. The terrorists specially choose a time when civilians are travelling to and from work, and they are shelling places where there are many people.

By the way, if recall the story about “SMERCH attack” on 2nd of July, the question arises: where are the rest of the shells? Why only 1 shell? In addition the position of the billet is unnatural on the photo. There is such feeling that the billet was just carried and buried in the soil.

Fighting continues in the South and East of the region. Terrorists try to ensure the passage for their forces through the border check point Izvaryne as well as the corridor next to the Savur-Mogila. There is a new trend: the Russian border guards do not allow the terrorists to enter the territory of the Russian Federation from Ukraine. (We previously posted material about this)
At night (from 2nd to 3rd of July), the border post Novoazovsk, region of Donetsk was shelled.
According to the information from the public domain Donetsk is encircled. At the same time we are witnessing the regrouping of militants inside the city. The gunmen moved their checkpoint from the Putilov Bridge. Most likely, the terrorists are waiting for the attack of the Ukrainian forces from Mariupol.

It is alarming that the Russian helicopters have been noticed in Krasnodon. The crossing of the State border of Ukraine by the helicopters was officially reported by the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC).

In the first days of the resumption of the ATO the Ukrainian forces have achieved considerable success, but we need to remember about the main attack force formed by the terrorists in Slovyansk. The presence of the armed vehicles, as well as knowledge of the area by Girkin, can significantly change the course of the fighting. Currently the exact whereabouts of this armour is unknown. On 3rd of July in Slavyansk there weren’t any reports of tanks from Slovyansk, like they had disappeared. But on previous days there were numerous reports on their whereabouts. Where they will come to the light is unknown. Usually the terrorists shut web cameras in towns and cities when they plan the redeployment of their armed vehicles at night.

The terrorists appear to have two options if they choose to attack:

1. The terrorists can deliver a thrust in the direction of Mykolaivka, and from the Lysychansk side to attack the Ukrainian forces in the direction of Zakitne.
2. The terrorists can deliver a thrust from the side of Lysychansk as distracting, and inflict a blow from Slavyansk in the Dolina area.

International Developments

On July, 03 the International Monetary Fund said that the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy is already quite significant. The leadership of the Russian Federation continues to assure the international community and their own population in the opposite.

In general the European and American MEDIA are very positive about the hard decision taken by Ukrainian President Poroshenko to end the unilateral cease fire and resume the ATO. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry urged the world not to accept Putin’s statements on the situation in Ukraine as the face value. Indeed, many of his claims are absurd and characterize the situation like something in a “parallel reality”.

By the signing of the Treaty of Association between the EU and Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, European influence comes to Russia as close as ever. The Russian Federation states that the link of Moldova with EU “will complicate the regional and economic situation”. So in response Russia is urgently activating relations with the separatist region of Transnistria. On 3rd of July several documents for further cooperation in various fields were sighed between Russia and the unrecognized Transnistria.

Three politicians (François Hollande, Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin) who were trying to dissuade the President of Ukraine from the resuming the ATO currently insist on more active monitoring of the situation in the East of the country by the OSCE. Let them come. Hopefully then this organization will make the open statement that the artillery of the Ukrainian forces isn’t targeting residential areas, that the Ukrainian aircraft did not destroy the cities, and there aren’t soldiers of the Right Sector which frighten children at night. Probably for this reason the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Ilkka Kanerva, hastened to announce the creation of an international group for negotiations to resolve the situation.

Translated by Victoria Field