ATO Progress

The day of June 14 can be characterized with the paraphrased meme, “Those who do not panic are Moskals”. We are not inclined to underestimate the threat of invasion and the development of a full scale Russian aggression but the prospects of the invasion exactly tomorrow (June 15) make us smile.

Putin is not ready yet; the intrigue is not yet over.

In particular, our sources from Kantemirovka (Voronezh region) reported that other columns of Russian tanks and truck with troops without insignia (just like the troops that acted in Crimea) moved towards Chertkovo-Melovoye direction.

It is noteworthy that in the Belgorod region (Russia) a self-propelled gun overturned during the transportation towards the Ukrainian border – this is a clear sign that Putin is doomed to fail.

Basing on the concentration of the enemy forces near the border, we can say that we have been waiting for the invasion for months. Of course, we are aware of disturbing evidence that Russia is preparing “surprises for the Ukrainian army”. However, those “surprises” may vary from sabotage and terrorist attacks to strikes from the territory of the Russian Federation, without any formal approach to the Ukrainian territory. In this context, today’s (June 14) message about mining of the “Ocean Plaza” shopping center in Kyiv sounds very alarming. Most likely, the “surprises” should be expected on June 17 and they will be confined to the Day of Commemoration of the Holy Royal Martyrs (when Tsar Nicholas II and his family were shot).

In general, June 14 began with the good news, namely: according to many sources, the Luhansk airport was deblocked and attack on the city continues. We told that the liberation of Luhansk gives control over the eastern border even in the absence of control over Izvaryne and makes it impossible to move military equipment from Russia to Donetsk. As a consequence, the group of militants in Donetsk will find itself in the blockade. It is very important to liberate Luhansk, Krasnodon, Molodohvardiisk and then move from the Slovyanoserbskyi district of Luhansk region towards Debaltseve to gain the rear of Bezler and cut him off Donetsk and Luhansk; the southern group will liberate Amrosiivka and then will move towards Krasnyi Luch and Yenakijeve.

As for the terrorist group in Donetsk, they continue to build up their forces in the southern direction. Most likely, the terrorists are aware that they will be unable to hold the Donetsk-Luhansk direction for long and this is why they are strengthening their positions along Donetsk-Snizhne-Luhansk road. And now comes the most interesting thing: it is not clear yet who exactly and from where fired at the column of the ATO forces in Amrosiivka but there is string suspicion of a strike from the Russian border. Given that the specified path is closer to the border than the direct route from Donetsk to Luhansk, it is possible that terrorists still count on Moscow’s support and prepare the communication lines.

Terrorists continue to strengthen their defense positions in the area of Lysyschansk. Despite the constant stuffing that the Lysychansk group will soon get into the pocket, we state that the Lysyschansk direction still remains the major one because they do not draw off their forces from that region; to the contrary, they strengthen their positions.

Sabotage continues in the liberated areas.

Thus we can talk only about partial success of the ATO forces but keep in mind that winning the battle does not mean winning the war, especially if you pay attention to the unclear situation with An-26 that was shot down today and the situation with the column of the ATO forces in Amvrosiivka which was also fired from the border.

There are rumors among Russian in the border areas which mention the date of July 17 (by the way, this date appears for a long time). The most interesting that it is very difficult to predict for sure the specific decision on the full scale intrusion and we think that the answer to this question is to be found in the success of the liberation of Donbas from terrorists by the ATO forces. When the Russian federation will have no one to sponsor with weapons, she will achieve the new level of arrogance.

Attack is the best form of defense. Putin attacks Ukraine blatantly and hypocritically delivering death and terror to Ukrainian cities. However, the Russian people have to understand that the imperialist ideology of Putin is a priori utopian and new vandals will destroy his Third Rome (or Fourth Reich, whichever suits you best).

International Intrigues and Statements

Today a catch phrase that characterizes the secret meetings between Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel has become very widespread in the information field: “In March Frau Merkel said that Putin lived in another world; today she moved to him. #DankeFrauRibbentrop”

It is difficult to explain in full all suspicions but is seems like Frau Merkel is not as simple as she might seem; the recent feint by Germany towards the quarrel with the U.S. on the grounds of “espionage” might be a good chess play with Mr. Putin whom they want to beat blindly. The details are irrelevant here.

Germany increased the amount of funds intended for humanitarian aid to Ukraine from EUR 2.5M to EUR 3.5M.

Angela Merkel officially stated that she was misunderstood and her words about bringing Ukraine to hold peace talks with Donbas militants were misinterpreted. Apparently the flash mob with putting #DankeFrauRibbentrop hash tag to comments to her page in Facebook achieved the goal.

Once again the U.S. President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron urged Russia to de-escalate tension in Ukraine. If their statement is not mere words, we should expect a discussion about the tightening of the sanctions against the Russian Federation during the European Council meeting on July 16. But again, recall Putin’s threats: if the new phase of sanctions is to be adopted, he will bring the troops to Ukraine.

Following Romania and Lithuania, the Latvian Parliament ratified the agreement on associated membership of Ukraine in the European Union.

Controversy with the Enemy

Despite the actions aimed at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, viz: Russia draws up its forces towards the Ukrainian border and even reports that Russian border guards help terrorists burst into the Ukrainian territory, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov called absurd the possibility of aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Although in reality it is his statement that is absurd because the invasion still continues…

Russian version: АТО. Сводка за 14.07.14