Yesterday we received a few messages from our colleagues abroad about the results of the meeting of Merkel, Hollande, and Putin.

We can’t tell all the details, but to make a long story short, Putin’s blackmailing Europe by saying that he is willing to launch a nuclear missile attack in Ukraine.

The ultimatum was submitted three days ago, which is why European leaders darted off and went to Moscow … No one knows what they agreed on. The press makes hazy claims that they “agreed to finalize the Minsk Agreement”, but at the same time Merkel and Hollande returned looking quite shocked.

However the last part of the negotiations on Ukraine will be held by phone on Sunday. It is obvious that Merkel wants to shift the responsibility on the US and dissociate herself from the decision-making and assume a more passive stance. Obama’s defence-strategy pendulum has swung back toward Europe, but his hesitancy has earned him the status of “paper tiger”, so we can state that Putin has finally led the world to a split. We should note, however, the strength of the “hawk” lobby in the United States, notably in the Congress, so it is still too early to speak of a complete surrender of the West to Putin’s ultimatum.

Nevertheless, Europe’s passivity may soon backfire.

It’s important to remember that in the second half of December 2014 German media outlets tripped over each other while shouting about the deployment of Russian Iskander tactical missile systems (PTRC) in the Kaliningrad region. In response, the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, said that the Iskanders will be placed where the Russian leadership sees fit. Furthermore, #Shoigu made it clear that Russia does not want peace and is preparing for war, stating that: “In 2015, we will have largely completed the troop deployment program on Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya, and will still be conducting research on Wrangel Island. Thus, the entire zone will be closed [with Iskanders – Ed].”

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As for Ukraine, it is absolutely not in vain that Putin called Crimea – “a sacred place.” Iskanders were planted there after last year’s occupation and it’s from there that Putin would make good on the ultimatum and launch his rocket attacks. Perhaps the strikes would target the fortified areas and the headquarters of the Ukrainian forces. Perhaps, the main target will be Dnipropetrovsk or Kyiv. In the longer run, Crimea is also a good base to control the Mediterranean, and we think that Turkey will not consider such a neighborhood to be safe.

In the near future it will become clear what conclusion the world leaders have come to, but the decision is not easy for them to make: it is impossible to continuously make concessions – it only strengthens the enemy, makes it more daring, and leaves nowhere to retreat… Putin allows himself to blackmail the world with the threat of a new world war and it must be stopped before it’s too late. However effective sanctions may be, it is a very slow way to crush a dictator, and this one is becoming even more aggressive and unpredictable…

INFORM NAPALM team
Translated by Marina Kharkova