Last night terrorists shelled Lysychansk Refinery Plant from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems. The shelling lit tanks with fuel oil. It should be noted that ATO forces did not fire at that area. Currently the facility continues to fire.

On July 18 ATO forces began a major attack on Lysychansk, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk. The attack was preceded by preparatory bombardment. Recall that the area is controlled by Mozgovoy’s gangs. Ukrainian servicemen probably planned to cut Mozgovoy’s grouping off Luhansk but did not take into account the factors we predicted earlier. This resulted in a counter-attack from Horlivka and Luhanske towards Aretmivsk and Dzerzhynsk. Reinforcements from Russia arrived to terrorists in Donetsk via Chervonopartyzansk; reinforcements from Donetsk then arrived to terrorists in Luhanske.

Given the weakening of the ATO forces near Sverdlovsk and the beginning of active battle actions in Lysychansk we can expect that terrorists will attack Aretmivsk, Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.

It should be noted that if terrorists choose to attack in the northern direction they will be in more or less favorable position. Between Dzerzhynsk and Horlivka they created quite powerful fortified area, destroyed the overbridge and mined main communication ways. Terrain in the north of Horlivka is difficult to traverse: there are only a few roads suitable for armored vehicles. Without a doubt militants are well aware of those roads and it is extremely likely that they have already taken care of them: mined, created shelling areas etc. Luhanske is the next in the list: in the area of reservoirs terrorists built impenetrable area; the only road available is over the bridge on M03 highway. That road has been mined long ago.

It is confidence in their advantageous position that enables terrorists to counterattack the ATO forces and draw off some forces to assault Donetsk airport. In particular, there have been repeated warnings that militants were preparing for a general assault of the airport to open a springboard for possible transfer of troops from the Russian Federation. The airport in Luhansk is still under attack; terrorists have the same objectives there.

Situation on the southern border after repositioning of the ATO forces is completely beyond control. This allows militants to transfer more and more troops from the Russian Federation. In this regard we would like to recall that Russia continues to reposition its multiple rocket launchers BM-21 “Grad” towards the Ukrainian border in Rostov region.

New equipment arrives to Donetsk from Snizhne and Torez where significant militant forces are positioned. Therefore we can expect active actions in the northern direction. I.Girkin is ready to play for broke because he knows that the best defense is a good offense.

In turn, we are not going to disclose variants of optimal strikes against terrorists in Luhansk and Donetsk; we hope that competent persons are already aware of them and for the rest, including our enemies, let it remain intrigue.

Russain version: АТО. Сводка за 18.07.2014