Last night militants tried to arrange a breakthrough from Dzerzhynsk towards Kostyantynivka. We predicted such an attempt in our previous summaries and it is very nice to see that ATO forces had read our forecast and increased their attentions to those areas. In the morning we got a message from them with words of gratitude and this means that our work was not in vain. Militants in that region failed to break through.

Today our group has noticed another interesting thing: armored vehicles moved from the Russian border towards Luhansk but then they did not appear anywhere between Donestk and Luhansk; we will get back to them later.

Over the past days ATO forces took up Bile and Tarasivka and continued to advance upon Luhansk from the north. They also took up Rozkishne and deblocked Luhansk airport. ATO forces continue to advance upon Donetsk from eastern and northern directions. However, they failed to get militant groupings in Lysychansk into encirclement. Though many sources report that encirclement has been completed, according to our data a small town of Popasna is the stumbling block. It should be noted that both Popasna and Komyshuvakha are of great strategic importance for terrorists and that is why they will hold them out.

Now let us get back to the armored vehicles we have talked about earlier. If they have not been noticed in the southern direction, it would be great if they do not appear near Shchastya and Slovaynoserbsk. Given the experience of the southern group when there were no reliable rear communications we can only hope that the option of the outflanking manoeuvre from the north-east direction towards Bile and Tarasivka is taken into account.

Besides, it is important to remember about Alchevsk and Perevalsk – they remain in the rear of the ATO grouping advancing upon Luhansk.

The fortified area of militants in Svitlodarsk (adjacent to Vuhlehorsk reservoir) still remains unassailable for ATO forces. There is another fortified area in Horlivka: militants make good use of the terrain there. In fact, terrorists securely closed the northern direction and complete encirclement of Donetsk without additional forces can be problematic. In addition, militants continue to build up their forces in Horlivka and Luhanske. Therefore, it is still possible that those groupings counterattack towards Luhasnke-Horlivka-Kosyantynivka. We reiterate that it would be quite logical given that the most of the forces involved in the anti-terrorist operation is involved in the actions specified above.

We also notice increased activity of subversive groups including the liberated areas. For example, in Slovyansk rumors are spread that many terrorist acts are planned for the next few days. It is noteworthy that people known for having connections with militants are leaving the city on the back of an envelope. This could indirectly indicate that the rumors have some grounds.

The Russian Federation continues to build up its forces along the border with Ukraine. In the area of Kuybyshevo-Matveev Kurgan repositioning of Russian armored vehicles was noticed.

After repeated attacks of Ukrainian military from BM-21 “Grad” from the Russian territory we should be ready for the next level of impudence of the Russians. In this regard we cannot rule out the possibility of an attack upon the ATO forces from Matveev Kurgan via Kuybyshevo towards Marynivka-Snizhne.

Russian: АТО. Сводка за 19.07.2014