Today, our contacts from among the residents of Luhansk (who for several weeks were unable to get in touch), have sent us information on how the militants carry out their shelling in and around the city in order to be able to blame the Ukrainian forces for the destruction and the deaths of civilians. In this way they try to convince local residents and their TV and news audiences of the crimes being committed against innocent people by the “Kyiv Junta”. While many residents, affected by the Russian propaganda, have taken their staged shows at face value, those who can analyze the facts understand who is actually destroying Luhansk.

Comparing the facts sent to us by our contacts in Luhansk, and checking them against other cities, we have found out that the terrorists indeed follow the same patterns. The patterns are as follows:

Option One. Militants located at point A in the city shell point B in the city, then after a pause fire a couple of rounds towards the direction of the Ukrainian forces. At this time the militants, along with reporters of Russian propaganda TV channels (like LifeNews of Russia Today), hurry to point B (or sometimes they are already near point B and wait for the shelling to begin). On-site there is usually at least one actor (preferably a woman) who cries on camera that they had been shelled by “the fascist punishers”, “banderivtsi”, and “Kyiv junta”.

Option Two. Militants from point A outside the city shell point B in the city. Militant artillery located at point C “return fire” but not directly, rather to a nearby area, point D. Point A is always located closely to point D (say, 50-150 meters away). So it looks like the unit which is firing from point A is under fire, but the shells are missing (landing in the nearby point D). In this scenario it is set up to look like the Ukrainian military are firing into the city (shelling from point A to point B), and that the militants are protecting the city. Journalists are usually prepared for covering the shelling.

Option Three. Terrorists from point A shell points B, C, D, E… However, if you put points B, C, D, E,… to the map, you will see the shelling is in a circle. In the center of the circle there is usually an important target or military asset of the militants. Journalists are not needed in this scenario because the locals already know the target/asset of the militants. So it looks like the Ukrainians are shelling to destroy this objective, because the militants would “will never shell their own assets” (although they apparently can sacrifice anyone for the good of Novorossia).

At first we were skeptical of this information because it seemed difficult to believe, and we think it is important to verify information before making claims. However this claim was made a number of times from sources in Luhansk. We then decided to test this algorithm against information on shelling in Donetsk.

We can note that for several days in a row a series of provocations in Donetsk has been observed. In fact, there is an internal war going on in Donetsk between militants of different groupings. The reasons for this internal war vary from struggles over the spoils of war to ideological differences.However, even with this internal war which complicates the situation, there have been several incidents which demonstrate militant actions aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian military and which follow the patterns of shelling identified in Luhansk.

Several days ago, the militants claimed that the National Guard forces entered “Shchurivka” mine. This claim seemed strange because the National Guard forces themselves were not aware that they had entered “Shchurivka” — probably because they were not there. After the militants made this claim the mine and the nearby territory was heavily shelled by the militants from the Petrovskyi district of Donetsk. The terrorists even imitated movement of military equipment towards the mine. That was followed by a retaliatory strike from the direction of “Shchurivka” mine on the residential area of the Petrovskyi district.

This is what the eyewitness said: “I see that two cargo-and-passenger “Gazels” arrived. [They] pulled mortars out of the vehicles and began to shell towards Shchurivka. They made 5 volleys, after that their chef pulled out his phone and called someone. The crew then packed up and they left. Ten minutes later shells come flying in close to where the gunners had worked and hit nearby houses…”.

In addition, prior to the beginning of the strife between the militant groups, the militants used the brick and asphalt-concrete plants of the Trudovskie residential area to shell the Petrovskyi district of Donetsk. Their algorithm indeed corresponded to that described by the Luhansk residents. The fact is that for an observer in Petrovskyi district shelling from the plants looks the same as shelling from the checkpoint in Kranohorivka. This can be illustrated by the following screenshots:

Thus, knowing point the A (or calculating it in the beginning of the provocation), the shelling by militants terrorizing civilian population, can be prevented or stopped.

By Roman Burko; edited by Larry Field

• Русский: Алгоритм проведения провокаций и уничтожения мирного населения террористами ДНР/ЛНР