Pro-Russian candidates have claimed victory in the presidential elections in Bulgaria and Moldova. In both countries, voters’ skepticism about the ruling political classes mounts, and although people are more concerned by internal affairs, they also have to choose between the geopolitical directions of East and West.

In Bulgaria, Socialist party leader Rumen Radev won the presidential election over Tsetska Tsacheva, speaker of the parliament, and candidate from the ruling center-right GERB party. In the second round Radev received 59.4% votes, while Tsacheva had just 36.2%.

The GERB party dominated Bulgarian politics over the past decade. Prime Minister Boyko Borisov himself was reelected in 2014. Now, straight after Radev’s victory, Borisov announced his resignation. He acknowledged that the outcome means his party had lost its majority of support. “The results clearly show the governing coalition has no majority and cannot pass the upcoming budget,” he said. Now Bulgaria faces a snap election and a political uncertainty.

Rumen Radev is a 53-year-old fighter jet pilot, but he’s a novice to politics. He left the position of the commander of Bulgarian Air Force in order to run for president. He was backed by Socialist party. In his campaign Radev managed to use public discontent with political elites, anger over corruption and fears about immigration, as he vowed not to make Bulgaria a “migrant ghetto”.

Radev is considered to be a pro-Russian politician. Even if domestic affairs prevail, the Bulgarian society is divided between pro-Russian and pro-Western views. Moscow is still seen by many in this county of the former Eastern Bloc as the liberator from the Ottoman Empire. At the same time the pro-Russian Orthodox church is influential among Bulgarians, which inspires their pro-Moscow sentiment.

During his presidential campaign, Rumen Radev called for better ties with Russia, potentially putting Bulgaria at odds with its EU and NATO allies. Radev, who studied at the US Air War College in Alabama, pledged to maintain Bulgaria’s place in NATO but also has said that “being pro-European doesn’t mean being anti-Russian”.

Rumen Radev also called to lift the Western sanctions placed on Russia for Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, including its illegal annexation of Crimea and its ongoing support of the armed pro-Russian groups in the war in eastern Ukraine.

In his first post-election press conference, Rumen Radev stressed that “a deeper dialogue with Russia gives a chance to decrease the level of conflict and escalation of tensions, normalization of the situation in Syria and Ukraine”. Radev reiterated that he will aim at canceling the EU sanctions against Russia and also praised US President-elect Donald Trump for “seeking more dialogue” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Radev considers Crimea as “de-facto Russian, de-jure Ukrainian”. He was called by political opponents a “puppet” of the pro-Russian military lobby. For instance, Tsetska Tsacheva clearly said that the annexation of Crimea was a violation of international agreements and that nationwide Bulgarian position on sanctions against Russia have to be elaborated.

Now many analysts wonder how close to Moscow Radev’s policy on the presidential post will be. “General Radev’s victory represents the unfolding of a pro-Russian scenario in Bulgaria so that the country supports Russian interests in the EU and NATO”.

Outgoing Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev is a vocal Kremlin critic. He warned on November 13 that Russia was trying to “destabilize Europe” by financing anti-EU ultra-nationalists in European member-states. In an interview with BBC on November 4, Plevneliev accused Russia of funding “populist parties and movements,” spreading “extensive propaganda,” and cyber-attacking. The former president also claimed that Russia is “trying to divide and weaken Europe”.

Analysts say that Bulgaria was “Russia’s most dutiful client state” in the Soviet era, and only Plevneliev, who was sworn in in 2012, changed the country’s course. The Balkan country depends mostly on Moscow for its energy supplies and military equipment. Russian tourists are also an important source of revenues for country’s important tourism sector.

Russia continues expanding its influence throughout all the Balkan countries, using a “soft power”, as is the case with Bulgaria.

Still, the Bulgarian president’s role is largely ceremonial. However, the president is a respected figure and the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Rumen Radev is due to take office on January 22 for a 5-year term. As his first important task, he will have to call early elections next spring.

Bulgaria faces a parliamentary election in the spring. But the election is likely to end up with a fragmented parliament that will struggle to agree on a new coalition capable of implementing vital reforms, political analysts say. An expert Dimitar Bechev told the AP that “there will be no shortage of drama in Bulgaria over the coming months, to be sure, but it will be driven by local forces, not the geopolitical contest between Russia and the West.”

MOLDOVA

In Moldova, Socialist party leader Igor Dodon claimed victory over pro-European leader Maya Sandu. Dodon received 52.29% while 47.71% voters backed Sandu. The vote was the first since 1997 in which Moldova’s president was elected by a national vote rather than by parliament.

Dodon is a former trade minister under a communist government. He had about a 10-point lead over Sandu in the first round in October but fell just short of gaining a majority to avoid the November 13 second round.

Igor Dodon is called a pro-Moscow candidate. In his campaign, Dodon used the electorate’s discontent with corruption scandals that accompanied the rule of the pro-EU government which has been in office since 2009. Dodon called Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia, “Russian territory” and that this will be legally recognized eventually. He has been harshly criticized in neighboring Ukraine for saying that.

Igor Dodon promises to renew Moldova’s friendship with Moscow, and at the same time to meet the wish for good relations with neighboring Romania and Ukraine. However, Dodon wants to reverse Chişinău’s moves toward European integration, which includes a historic association agreement signed in 2014 despite bitter opposition from Moscow.

Previously, Russia feared Moldova moving closer to the European Union, similar to what happened in Ukraine. Moscow imposed trade restrictions on Moldovan agricultural exports after it signed the political and trade agreement with the EU.

Russia also has thousands of troops stationed as part of a disputed military presence in the mainly Russian-speaking territory of Transnistria. The region broke away from Moldova following a short war that killed several hundred people. Russia keeps a contingent of troops in the breakaway Transnistria, ostensibly as peacekeepers.

Dodon’s rival, Maya Sandu complained about the high number of people who voted in the breakaway region of Transnistria, obviously a pro-Russia region, where a reported 9,000 people cast ballots. People who live in Transnistria don’t usually participate in Moldovan elections. Maya Sandu complained that large numbers of Moldovans living abroad, most of whom are in favor of her, were unable to vote at embassies.

Former World Bank economist Maya Sandu in her campaign also used anti-corruption theses. In 2012-2015, Sandu served as education minister and gained popularity through her reforms. Her electorate was mainly young voters and Moldovans who work in western Europe and seek further integration with the EU.

Opinion polls suggest that a banking corruption scandal in Moldova of 3.5 million, the fraud, which took place under the watch of a pro-EU government, harmed the reputation of pro-EU politicians and weakened the enthusiasm of many Moldovans for European integration.

Igor Dodon has been called “the Moldovan copy of Vladimir Putin in miniature.” In an interview with Radio Liberty, he said that he liked the comparison, noting that Vladimir Putin has done much to strengthen Russia’s statehood and patriotism. Dodon also called for a referendum to federalize the country in a move that would unite Moldova with the breakaway region of Transnistria, where Russia keeps a disputed military presence.

Moldova’s outgoing president, Nicolae Timofti, said his country’s constitutionally mandated neutrality is “invalid as long as forces of Russia are present on the territory of Transnistria contrary to our will.” Speaking to foreign ambassadors in Chişinău, Timofti also said the country’s neutrality does not prevent Moldova from modernizing its defense and security capabilities through cooperation with NATO.

After the pro-Russian candidate was declared the winner of Moldova’s presidential election, hundreds of people protested on the streets of the Moldovan capital. However, it was far from being a “Maidan” and, luckily, the rally ended without any violence.

Moldova is one of Europe’s poorest countries, and economic conditions there only worsened by the turmoil that erupted in late 2014 when nearly $1 billion, which makes around 10% of the country’s GDP, just disappeared from three banks. However, recently the IMF approved nearly $180 million of loans to support Moldova, stating that the government reforms and an improving economy had strengthened the banking sector in the country.

Igor Dodon will have to change a bit his anti-Western rhetoric, since Moldova is heavily dependent on Western financial aid. Chişinău, however, is also dependent on Moscow, with Russian gas giant Gazprom controlling Moldova’s gas pipeline network.

The Kremlin’s influence expansion in eastern Europe may weaken the West’s support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. The upcoming elections in Europe may also increase Russia’s pressure. In France, pro-Kremlin far right Marine Le Pen, National Front leader, is likely to win the first round of presidential election in April, 2017, according to latest surveys. Meanwhile, Moscow-friendly far-right Alternative for Germany is hoping to succeed in the country’s 2017 parliamentary election following its strong results in local elections last March.

However, we should not overestimate the recent victories of pro-Moscow politicians. Their success was caused rather by corruption scandals involving current “elites” than by Russian influence and a geopolitical choice. In Bulgaria, as well as in Moldova, the local agenda remains more important for people than the foreign policy and the geopolitics. Still, Europe has to acknowledge that Russian propaganda through Kremlin-funded media and ideologically friendly political groups, mostly far right or far left, have considerable influence on politics in many countries.

Author: Michael

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