Palmyra, gas and all that jazz
A too long-playing puzzle, which includes Syria/Russia/Iran on the one side, USA/Saudi Arabia/Qatar on the other and ISIS on the third, together with Europe and Ukraine on the background, has finally been put together. That same fight for gas supply to the European Union and for the world influence lays in the basis of the conflict.
Let us start without long introductions. If we take Bashar al-Assad, who bothers the plans of the US so much, away from the Middle Eastern chess desk, than the West will gain a possibility to construct a gas pipeline in the Syrian territory, which will directly connect the Arabia Gulf states with Europe with no participation of Iran (which supports Syria). In particular, it will be possible to get gas from Qatar, whose gas is about 3 times cheaper than the Russian. By the way, struggle for gas is the reason of deep political antipathy between Russia and Qatar.
Together with Saudi Arabia, Qatar sponsors Syrian opposition, what makes it one of the main Middle Eastern allies of the US. Such changes could finally free Europe from the gas dependence on Russia. Meanwhile, Syria agrees to lay a pipeline, but only if Iran, which has already informed that it is ready to produce 600 million cubic meters of gas a day, participates too. This game has another interesting fact: according to the project, Greece has to become a first European state, where Qatar pipeline is going to be built. Can you see the connection between the profit of the EU, of the US – Arabia Gulf alliance and Russian support of summer disorders in Greece, which were connected to potential possibility of Greece leaving the EU?
And because Syria and ISIS stay on the way of military-economic coalition of the US and Arabia Gulf, it is natural that the US became involved. At the same time, Russia became involved in Syrian conflict and provided a military support. This became a reason for the call of American Secretary of State John Kerry to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with a warning about possible results of such involvement. Yesterday evening, right after the ‘Syrian informational explosion’, which happened after the video, published by ‘Times’, which shows the Russian forces in Syria, international media published a strategic decision of Germany concerning the agreement with Russia on Transbaltic pipeline ‘Nord Stream 2’. ‘Gazprom’ has formed a block of large European energy companies, which are interested in the supply of Russian gas to Europe bypassing Ukraine and has made Germany a business proposal, which is hard to decline. This project would make Germany a center for distribution of the Russian gas in the EU and would let Russia to avoid the gas transit through Ukraine with keeping its European (and the world) gas influence. Germany agreed. But in order to fulfill this agreement, it is necessary to lift sanctions from ‘Gazprom’ and this decision would have to be approved by political allies in the EU and the US. And yet today French President Francois Hollande stated that it would be possible to lift sanctions from Russia under the condition the Minsk agreements-2 are fulfilled.
There was also a very interesting phrase saying that during the personal discussion with Putin, the Russian president gave signals that he would not support Assad. Potentially, this can mean the betrayal of Syrian friend by Russia in return for the sanction relaxation from the side of the US, since Obama needs to solve the Syrian problem as soon as possible because of the nuclear agreement with Iran. He also has to solve the ISIS problem until Iranian monetary assets (about 100 billion dollars) are defrozen in the end of October. The lack of time is so obvious that there is a chance to fully or partially lift sanctions from Russia as a result of politically-business exchange in favor of Russian and German interests. American president’s opponents in terms of the agreement with Iran will make him a political corpse if he is late with anti-Syrian and anti-ISIS operation and Iran gets a possibility to financially support Syria, acting according to its gas and military-business benefits. However, if Russia does not succeed to implement the German strategy in terms of lifting sanctions, there are all chances to stay in Syria for a long time, setting the world in danger of the global war with the terrorist Islamic State (not even mentioning thousands of Russian soldiers ‘who are not there’, which will return to Russia in zinc coffins). Russia would be crushed with the use of economy. That is a general picture. More exact details of this question are not obvious for me now and it is unlikely that they will become obvious until the results of an upcoming UN Assembly General are announced.
This all leads to the prepared change of people in charge in the self-proclaimed DPR, as a part of this step-by-step plan. It is possible that all this story with DPR was necessary only for detaching sanctions from Crimea (that was what they were imposed for) and tying them to the results of negotiations in Minsk, which were adjusted by Putin for himself. Donbas coal is just a small gift for performers of the play, who are used secretly. Motorolla’s escape from Donetsk (together with the escape of other bandits) and a statement saying that Luhansk is ready to return under the Ukrainian control, which was published during the last three days, can easily be connected to this scheme.
And here it is – Russian deep interest in the friendship with Syria. It does not lay on the basis of supporting the stability in the Middle East, not even on support of the present regime or arms supply contract; it is also not about the people’s friendship myth or fighting ISIS. The main aim is the European and world gas influence. That is the reason why Russians send their soldier to Syria. I have already mentioned the connection between the war in Ukraine and the global economic war for the gas influence, even though some people were rather skeptical about this information. But if Qatar+the US+the Saudi Arabia overthrow Assad and destroy ISIS (in order to get the united political support of this decision it would be logical to wait until ISIS destroys heritage assets which are under UNESCO preserve and until crowds of refugees flood the EU), Europe will make a logical decision (nothing personal – only business) to set an agreement and buy cheaper Persian gas, coming from the direct Qatar pipeline, instead of Russian. This way Arabia Gulf (gas) and the US (liquid gas) would divide the supply of Europe with gas, while it does not really matter for Europe which pipeline it will get gas from. It only needs stable supply and good price. Now Europe has to pay for this ‘does not matter’ by letting a lot of terrorists together with refugees on its territories. But this is a price for being between the devil and the deep sea. Ukraine has already felt this even in a more harsh way.
By saying this I risk to be understood in a wrong way, however I do believe that, of course, it is necessary to help war refugees, but is it wise to do that on emotions, following only good will, without thinking over all security matters for your own citizens, since there is obvious danger of terrorism? And from the point of view of volunteer, who has experience in donor work in very hard and specific time terms and conditions (South-Eastern Asia), I would like to give readers one advice, what I usually do not do: if you want to do good, especially when it comes to saving lives, develop a strong composure. Because if you do not have that, you are going to run back and forth, as it does a chicken whose head had already been chopped off and you will not be able to help even yourself. Active and really effective good can not be toothless and weak. Emotions do not solve the problem, they deepen it.
In this geo-political game the Russian military-strategic alliance with Syria and Iran and American – with Qatar and Saudi Arabia are worth each other in terms of speculative methods of influence on the world community and civic society. In my conclusions I tend to restrain from defending anyone’s demons. I totally do not mind whose are they, since hundreds of thousands of people die because of the division of economical and political spheres of influence. The world of big politics and money pathologically lacks honesty, straightforwardness and honor. To be honest, I should also mention that ISIS is not the result of religious conflict between Shiites and Sunnites, but an impact of competitive struggle of middle eastern economical, oil and gas potentials together with state political systems,which use the credent, poor educated and deeply religious population for their manipulative games with the help of religious ideas. However, state ideology propaganda which is based on the religious feelings of its victims – that is old and widely used political instrument and not only in Arab countries. Just pay attention to the activeness of the Russian Orthodox Church during the last 1.5 years, whose activities are usually rather scandal and ambiguous. It blesses ones, it supports others, it gives advice to thirds, and it also wants museums, parks, land, it wants its role in educational system and a small army of ‘Spartak’ football fans ‘dressed’ in orthodox ideas and with Nazi tattoos on them. The Russian Orthodox Church is everywhere except for the place where is has to be according to the Russian constitution. Because dark time is the right time to throw religious stones and to collect jewels. And that is historical tradition that in the name of God and with all kinds of peaceful and friendly declarations the worst evil on Earth is being committed.
Of course, there are many other serious details, such as details of nuclear treaty with Iran or smaller alliances of such states as Turkey, Iraq, UAE, Pakistan etc., all kinds of political lobbies and a shadow of China waiting ‘when a corps of an enemy flows down the river’. But in general those are not so serious in terms of final conclusions of the five year global geopolitical and gas change, whose final should definitely be wars and special operations and thousands of people’s lives lost each day. And at the end of this ‘natural selection’, according to the jungle law there will be 15-20 years of relatively stable calm period – until the next big game. During the 40 years of life a person has enough time to see few episodes of this movie. Evolution of humanity – is an evolution of cynicism: “People die for metal”. And I keep repeating that. Same as there is no big politics without the connection to big money. If you want to know where do global tragedies and wars come from – follow the smell of oil and gas. Money itself does not smell.
P.S. This time I will not give any links to materials, which I used. There were more than 150 of those during the last year, starting from the war in the Arabia Gulf: newspaper articles, analytical and historical notes, political interviews, reports from the Middle East states etc. They are all in open access. I do not like the dirty methods of conducting international relations by ‘big man and women’ – by all of them, and all that jazz. Because when you know that your life and the life of your children depends on people, who can do anything, without any moral terms or boundaries is very uncomfortable.
Author’s opinion does not necessarily match with the editor’s opinion, official government, media, popular journalists, other observers and analysts, religious actors, special services and even morality police. But it is totally free of anyone’s influence, directions, decisions and “party’s policy”. By expressing it I am also free from remorse. And even if I am wrong while making hypothesis about present world construction, I am honestly wrong.
Observer of Russian and international press Ania Dorn (Moscow, Russia) specially for InformNapalm.org
Original article translated by Maksym Sviezhentsev