The Moscow regime systematically launches missile strikes against civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. As a result of these attacks, many children, women, and elderly people are killed, while schools, social facilities, energy infrastructure, cultural heritage sites, and other structures are destroyed. Seeing its inability to defeat the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, the Putin regime has shifted its focus to terrorizing the civilian population in an attempt to weaken Ukraine’s home front.

The Consequences of Russian Missile Strikes on Ukraine

Russian X-101 missiles and their production

A significant portion of the missiles used by the Russian army for large-scale attacks on Ukraine consists of X-101 missiles. These missiles are produced by JSC “State Design Bureau ‘Raduga’ named after A. Ya. Bereznyak” (hereafter referred to as Raduga). According to available data, Raduga plans to increase the production of X-101 air-launched cruise missiles by 1.2 times in 2025, reaching a total of 700 units. In 2023, 420 missiles were produced, while in 2024, 575 missiles are planned for production. Since the beginning of 2024, around 580 X-101 cruise missiles have been used.
As the trends indicate, missile production continues to rise, and now let’s delve into why.

Russian X-101 Strategic Air-to-Ground Cruise Missile

Design Bureau “Raduga” and its role in the war

As mentioned earlier, the production of these missiles is carried out by the Raduga Design Bureau (located in Dubna, Moscow Region, Russia). This Russian design bureau specializes in the development and production of various types of cruise missiles. It is part of the state corporation “Tactical Missiles Corporation.” Currently, Raduga is engaged in the production of X-101, X-59, X-55, and X-22 missiles. The company is subject to international sanctions imposed by the United States, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and the European Union. However, these sanctions have not prevented it from expanding its capacity for the production of cruise missiles, which are used to kill civilians.

Expansion of production despite sanctions

According to an investigation by Frontelligence Insight, Raduga’s production facilities have been continuously expanding both before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and during the war, despite international sanctions. This is evidenced by satellite images. In 2023, the images show the construction of new facilities on Raduga’s territory, including production sites in buildings M10, M11A, and M11B.

In the documents of “Raduga,” which became available due to a leak obtained by Frontelligence Insight from Ukrainian Cyber Resistance, it is stated that despite sanctions, the bureau continued to expand and modernize, opening new warehouses. They also managed to establish the acquisition of necessary equipment from Europe and China.

The technical modernization and reconstruction plan for the enterprise in 2023 included a specific budget and required foreign equipment. The main companies that supplied the necessary equipment are Farsoon (China), Hangcha (China), Hision (China), Fagima Jazz R (Italy), Automator (Italy), and Hottinger GmbH (Germany).
The investigation is uncertain about how the negotiations were conducted—whether directly or through intermediaries (using parallel import methods). However, there is an example of the purchase of a machine from the Italian company FAGIMA FRESATRICI SRL, with which direct business communication took place.

Regarding the supply of equipment from the aforementioned companies to Raduga, if we look at the semi-annual progress report, we can see success in meeting the goals for this period, and in some cases, even exceeding the timelines. This indicates successful procurement of the necessary equipment from the aforementioned companies.

This document also states that most of the funding was allocated for the purchase of new equipment, construction and modernization of buildings, development of the automotive department, improvement of laboratory and testing facilities, and the development of IT solutions.

Summing up the above facts, it can be concluded that the “Raduga” bureau, despite international sanctions, managed to expand and modernize its production capacities, purchase the necessary equipment from China, and maintain business relations with European companies, particularly from Germany and Italy. On one hand, this indicates the ineffectiveness of international sanctions, and on the other hand, it demonstrates the Russian military industry’s dependence on Western technologies and components, which could be mitigated by stricter enforcement of sanctions.

Katerina Tikhonova’s Letter to Dmitry Medvedev

Another factor enabling the development of military-industrial companies like “Raduga” is the shift to Russian software and hardware systems. For instance, in a letter from the head of the Center for National Intellectual Reserve at Lomonosov Moscow State University, director of the National Intellectual Development Foundation, operating under the brand “Innopraktika,” Katerina Tikhonova (the younger daughter of Vladimir Putin), to Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, the gradual transition to Russian software systems as a replacement for sanctioned Western solutions is mentioned.

Under the current sanctions, nearly all companies, whether state-owned or foreign-capitalized, are required to transition their infrastructure to Russian software and equipment. However, it is understood that this process is not quick and requires time.
To ensure an effective transition to Russian software systems, Tikhonova proposes creating an “Association for the Development of Software and Hardware-Software Systems, Synthetic Solutions for the Automation of Technological and Production Processes” and involving interested ministries and companies. The association would be tasked with coordinating and developing the software sector.

As we can see, Russia is gradually adapting to sanctions and transitioning to its own software and hardware solutions for its companies. Combined with the imperfect enforcement of international sanctions, this allows military-industrial enterprises to continue developing, further increasing their production capacities for manufacturing weapons.

As a result, the “Raduga” design bureau, which produces X-101 cruise missiles and others, continues to grow and expand its missile production. These missiles are then used in attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, leading to significant casualties, particularly among children. To prevent further civilian casualties, it is essential to strengthen oversight of sanctions enforcement against Russia by European countries and China. All instances of sanctions violations by European and other international companies should be thoroughly investigated. It is important to understand that while these missiles are flying over Ukraine today, tomorrow they could be aimed at the very countries that allowed the sale of components for their production. And all of this needs to be done immediately, as any delay gives Russia the opportunity to gradually implement a closed cycle of arms production, which will be used against civilians.