On September 19, videos appeared on-line shot by motorists with their DVRs near the village of Rodionovka in Rostov Oblast of the Russian Federation [Update]. A large convoy of tanks and armored personnel carriers of the Russian army was spotted moving along the highway only 30 km from the state border with Ukraine. The video is not very clear, but InformNapalm volunteers could identify some modifications of military equipment: modified T-72B3 and T-72B3M main battle tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers and artillery fire control vehicles.

Spot on GoogleMaps.

Ще одне відео, щось з 1 сталося. Сьогодні. #Ростов pic.twitter.com/W5tSr728Z1

— 25ЄС_EU_UA_NATO_USA_יִשְׂרָאֵל🇮🇱🇺🇦🇺🇸🇪🇺🇬🇧 (@herooftheday10) September 19, 2019

According to InformNapalm analysts, this could signal that Russian troops are preparing for an offensive operation. The implications could be especially grave given the nervous reaction of Boris Gryzlov, the Russian envoy in the Donbas trilateral contact group, who claimed that negotiations of the Normandy Four were put under threat, as Ukraine refused to sign the “Steinmeier formula”, which its representatives had allegedly previously agreed to. It is worth mentioning that this formula actually grants Moscow’s objective to consolidate the special status of Donbas without security guarantees and create a buffer zone, which would effectively mean capitulation for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, preparations are being made for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line in Donbas. The Ukrainian side hopes for a de-escalation and a “mirror withdrawal”, which was discussed by the commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces Volodymyr Kravchenko at a meeting with Osnat Lubrani, the UN coordinator in Ukraine. However, we see the contrary signs with Russian troops pulling their armored groups closer to the border.

Conclusions

The deliberate and open movement of Russian armored task groups to the border is an apparent sign of psychological pressure on the leadership of Ukraine to bend Ukraine towards defeatist agreements within the “Steinmeier formula”. It also worth noting that the Russian hybrid occupation forces in Donbas have a sufficient military hardware assets to escalate the hostilities. We call on the international community to respond to Russia’s aggressive actions and signals and, as a deterrent, increase political and economic pressure on the aggressor.

Background information

Steinmeier formula is a method of implementing the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements proposed by, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is widely viewed as a pro-Russian influence in the German politics. The essence of the formula consists in immediate granting of temporary special status to the occupied areas of Donbas which are currently not controlled by Ukraine, holding local elections, and then after a report by the OSCE on the outcome of the elections, granting a permanent special status to these territories.

Details and implications of the Steinmeier formula for Ukraine

• Elections shall be held in the temporarily occupied areas of Donbas without disarming the militants, without the withdrawal of Russian troops and regaining control of the border by Ukraine;
• After the elections, Ukraine shall grant political and economic autonomy to the currently occupied areas for a period of 5 years;
• Ukraine shall pay for social programs and restore the damaged and destroyed infrastructure at its own expense;
• Ukraine shall announce a full amnesty to all militants;
• The militants would receive the status of “people’s militia”, run their own law enforcement agencies; they will not be disarmed during the elections.

Members of Ukrainian civil society – volunteers, Donbas war veterans, activists, public and political figures have sharply criticized the perspectives of adopting this “formula” as leading to the surrender of Ukraine. On September 17, they signed an appeal to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky outlining the “red lines” in the domestic and foreign policy that the authorities should not cross.

On September 19, a protest rally was held in Kyiv with the participants demanding not to sign any “formulas of surrender” for Ukraine. Main slogans of the protest read: “Schwein-Putin formula”, “Crimea and Donbas must return together”, “Normandy conspiracy is high treason”.

More current news on InformNapalm:

• Statement by Foreign Minister of Ukraine on the reduction of shelling in Donbas conflicts with the facts [Fact checking by InformNapalm]
• In Ukraine, They Began to Sing a Lullaby that Gives Russians Creeps (VIDEO) [more than 10,000 reposts from InformNapalm].
• The book Crimea Behind the Curtain. Guide to the Occupation Zone is out for free access [a very comprehensive book distributed free of charge, English translation is underway].
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