As for the authenticity of the Russian army documents about capturing Ukraine till Dnipro

Many journalists contact us for an unbiased assessment of the plans of capturing Ukraine, which have been published by ‘Myrotvorets‘ center volunteers.

A lot of experts have spoken up on this topic for the last 2 days. But their assessments are rather about the document ideas realization (taking into account the current political situation) than the document analysis itself.

Myrotvorets web site screenshot

Talking about possibilities is senseless, that is why we will do it in a different way.

Let’s make it clear, I was pretty skeptical about these documents which were printed with the ‘Peacekeeper’ watermarks and had no electronic copies (I got the opportunity to read them just a couple of days before the publication).  On the one hand I felt concerned about the limitations of the documents, on the another hand the intelligence data about the Ukrainian side was extensive. Putting such information into Internet would be stupid and criminal, despite it was from April, 2015, and in fact outdated. It is a different matter if this information was already known by the enemy or even has been processed by his General Staff. My doubts were dispelled when I got the archives with large amount of initial data including slides, tables, reports, decisions of ‘Sever’ [North] force grouping usage and other accompanying documents with General Staff marks on them. Falsification of such huge set of data (part of which has never been published in open sources) with the appropriate apparel, with correct estimations of the situation and available reserves is physically impossible. Even the misprints in the names of certain objects in the Ukrainian territory fit the expectations.

Most of the documents were created for approval by Chief of the Staff of WMD Lieutenant-General Viktor Ostapov

Some military experts from both sides mention that operation execution tactics is too straightforward – i.e. “Russians could be smarter”. This argument is the basis for the supporters of the point of view that the documents are fake. From the Russian side it is caused by the imperial complex, and from the Ukrainian side by the insignificance complex. In reality everything is simpler – all the generals graduate from the same academies which have the same dump Soviet approach which results in ‘oldschool’ Soviet team.

But we should pay tribute – these plans are not something that can cause ‘shock and awe’. The estimated forces and means are definitely not enough to achieve goals. This is not a reference that documents are fake. On the contrary, this is the reference that the estimations are real but made based on tutorials.

Most of the documents were created for approval by Commander of WDM Colonel-General A.Sidorov

Large group of the Russian Federation army is always in close proximity to the Ukrainian border – this is undeniable fact. The fact is that if the militants can not cope with the encirclement of our troops or with the offence preparation – Russian servicemen ‘on vacation’ with white arm bands step in. Our investigation based on OSINT constantly confirm the fact of Russian army presence not only near the Ukrainian border, but also in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine – that is a fact as well.

Combat part of the explanatory note to the decision of the use of force grouping ‘Sever’

Worth paying attention that during common trainings, documents are always labeled as ‘Confidential’, ‘Secret’ or ‘Top Secret’. Also one of the rules is to change or distort the actual object names of the potential enemy. For example ‘blue’ is used instead of the enemy forces, ‘red’ for own unit, etc. In case of information leakage it would be impossible to proof the offensive intentions towards neighboring country, selected as a potential training opponent. But in the provided Russian documents these rules are ignored: both the terrain and the Ukrainian units names are written without any distortion. There is the only explanation – the plan is real. The only points to change – the actual date of the start and small adjustments according to the actual intelligence information.

So, taking into account the open but not yet published materials of the Russian General Staff documents we can state that the Russian officers did their job well. The plan of attack on the neighboring country was developed and locked until the D-day, which might never happen.

I do not agree with the opinion that this plan is an attempt of Russians to frighten Ukraine.  For more than a year of undeclared war, a year of stress and waiting for a cynical and despicable strike many Ukrainians have learned to follow the principle of “Do what’s right, come what may.” Such plans only durst our desire to protect our rights for freedom, independence and to see a quick fall of the empire. The appearance of Russian General Staff  plans  in open access may serve as a signal that the opposite side also has a lot of people with the Ukrainian roots, who are related to us not only by blood, but also by soul and in the critical moment they will try to stop the disaster by all means.

I believe in best personal qualities of people from both sides of the front. Not every Ukrainian is a patriot same as not every Russian is ‘moskal’. This is not a war of nations but of ideologies. A war between the striving for the past with its red flags, repressive authorities and mausoleums and the belief in future with the right to be free, progressive and successful. This is a spiritual war…

P.S. Today, on June, 17, more than 2000 servicemen and about 250 pieces of military equipment of Ulan-Ude and Ivanovskyi airborne forces were alarmed under conducting the head-quarter training with landing operation at foreign terrain…

Original article by Roman Burko translated by Oleksandr Hoha and edited by Oleksandr Klymenko